2K14: Robinson Cano

[revo]

After shocking the baseball world by signing with the Mariners -- after all, you can count on one hand the times the Yanks have lost a superstar in free agency -- Cano enters 2014 with some questions he hasn't normally had associated with him.

- Will his stats suffer in Safeco?
He has a career .309/.355/.504 slashline, which is shockingly similar to his slashline in the 40 games he's played in Safeco (.309/.350/.484). He does only have 4 career HRs there in 161 ABs, and that's the rub -- how much will Yankee Stadium's short RF porch cost him? He has a 19.29 AB/HR career rate in the new Yankee Stadium compared to a 38.0 AB/HR rate in Safeco. You'd have to assume the Safeco number comes down a bit, and if it drops to 25-30 AB/HR, you're looking at 10-12 HRs at his new home park. By way of comparison, Cano only hit 11 HRs at Yankee Stadium last season in 295 ABs, compared to 16 on the road. If his road AB/HR stays the same, then his HR totals really won't suffer much at all, it seems.

- Should we be afraid of players who signed mega-contracts in their 1st year?
The number of vets who signed massive contracts this decade and disappointed have littered the landscape, some worse than others. Let's take a look at the Top 25 largest contracts signed by position players since 2010 (ranked by contract size):
Pujols, 2012: -10 OPS+ drop
Votto, 2011: -16 OPS+ drop
Fielder, 2012: -13 OPS+ drop
Mauer, 2011: -38 OPS+ drop
Posey, 2013: -38 OPS+ drop
Kemp, 2012: -25 OPS+ drop
Tulowitzki, 2011: -7 OPS+ drop
A. Gonzalez, 2012: -38 OPS+ drop
Crawford, 2011: -50 OPS+ drop

Not a single player improved his performance in the first year, which is pretty shocking. The average decline was -26 OPS+. If Cano were to suffer a similar drop in performance, he would have an OPS+ of 119 -- not terrible, but not 1st round worthy given his lack of speed. His new teammate, Kyle Seager, had an OPS+ last season of 118. Given complaints about his lack of hustle, what is motivating Cano this season?

- The M's lineup is a far cry from the Yankees lineup.
Perhaps this year, but certainly not last season, when the Yanks finished 85-77 and trotted out a lineup reminiscent of the Kevin Maas/Andy Stankiewicz Yankees of the early 1990s. Cano's BA, HRs and RBIs did not suffer, but his Runs Scored dipped by 20%. I think the Mariners' lineup this season is much better than the Yankees lineup last season, but it remains to be seen if the runs will improve greatly.


I think the Safeco move is a bit overblown, but the impact of the lack of motivation associated with the 1st year contract status may hurt his value. I'll go with a mild underperformance of .304/90/24/95.

[Pogues]

I just read somewhere that every home run that Cano hit last year in Yankee stadium would have been a HR in Safeco, considering distance and wall height. I wouldn't expect a drop in HR for Cano based on a new home field.

[joncarlos]

Isn't the mega-contract drop just another version of the Madden curse or the MVP curse? Players have a monster year and get paid, then regress naturally and it looks like contract fallout.

Cano seems to be taking on a more vocal role in SEA, for better or worse. I do think his power might suffer a little (though Safeco is a lot worse for righties) but I think he will deliver similar value. Something like .315-25-90-100r

[Bob Kohm]

He has outstanding talent and that should continue to be evident in Safeco. Not hustling for the Yankees, though, gives me pause-- if he played at the speed he did in front of the NYC press corp, will he be even more likely to dog it in front of the much softer Seattle press corps? Combined with the lack of motivation derived from his new wealth, I'd learn to accept some frustration, Seattle fans. He'll be very good, but you'll notice places where he could be much better-- like the team paid for a Ferrari but got a Corvette. Still great, but...

[chancellor]

Good points by Bob. I wouldn't take him in the 1st round anymore in a 12-team mixed 5x5 league, especially with some very good options likely available in rounds 2-4 at 2B.

In my league that's equivalent to a 10-team AL only 5x5 league, with OBP and SLG, and about 15% inflation, I'm tossing him back in at 35.

[Sour Masher]

Only thing I'm concerned about with Cano is the move to the pitcher's field.


Edit: Now that I look it up, Seattle played just about exactly neutral last year, which is way better than I'd assumed.

Edit II: Didn't they move the fences in at Safeco? I think they did.

Yes they did, and it had a much bigger impact on power than San Diego's changes did. It still seems to be a pitchers park slightly, but the move definitely has improved it from a power perspectives. Overall HR totals went up fairly dramatically. I don't think the park will affect Cano very much. JC's comments about natural regression after a big year and a big fat contract concern me some, but Cano might end up being a bit of a bargain if folks push him down more than they should because of his team switch.

[Bob Kohm]

Hmm, I missed this comment from Canoe: “...if it was up to me, we’d have (Ervin) Santana, (Nelson) Cruz and Ubaldo (Jimenez).”

Mike Axisa at River Ave. Blues hits this on the head, imo-- Robby has to get used to the new reality of being on a team that doesn't have and isn't willing to spend money to fill the teams needs (not that the Yankees have gone out and signed Stephen Drew this winter, either...). Again, I think this might speak to some frustration and attitude issues that Cano will have to overcome to really succeed in Seattle. He well might do just that, but again, as a fantasy player, this weighs on my mind if he's available in the draft and I'm looking at keeping him over the next three years. To go back to the Ferrari thing, it's hard not to see Seattle as a team that needed five reliable BMWs but bought one high maintenance Ferrari 528 with the money instead.

[Don Quixote]

To go back to the Ferrari thing, it's hard not to see Seattle as a team that needed five reliable BMWs but bought one high maintenance Ferrari 528 with the money instead.

Except that the "cars" in this case have free will. The BMWs didn't seem to want to drive to Seattle and the Ferrari did, so they went with the Ferrari.

It could also be a case not unlike Pedro Martinez signing with the Mets--a team that hasn't had much success attracting top free gents signs one high-profile player and others follow.

[Moonlight J]

On Cano & lineup protection - http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/3...rotection-myth

[Bob Kohm]

Except that the "cars" in this case have free will. The BMWs didn't seem to want to drive to Seattle and the Ferrari did, so they went with the Ferrari.
.

I don't think so. I think it's much more likely that the conventional wisdom is correct in this case and Jack Z threw a Hail Mary desperation toss to try to save his job, a job that he should have been doing over the past few years by building the team in a rational manner. He spent everything on the shiniest toy he could find as if this were the NBA and that strategy had a chance of succeeding. Now it seems that Cano has realized that he's in a losing situation, a very bad thing when he demonstrated a petulant habit of playing at 90% speed in a more winning environment.

[Hornsby]

I don't think so. I think it's much more likely that the conventional wisdom is correct in this case and Jack Z threw a Hail Mary desperation toss to try to save his job, a job that he should have been doing over the past few years by building the team in a rational manner. He spent everything on the shiniest toy he could find as if this were the NBA and that strategy had a chance of succeeding. Now it seems that Cano has realized that he's in a losing situation, a very bad thing when he demonstrated a petulant habit of playing at 90% speed in a more winning environment.

Never heard a peep about "bad Robbie" when he was a Yankee...best 2nd baseman in baseball, model of consistency, great glove, better attitude...blah, blah blah. Now that he's in Seattle, he's an petulant baby who doesn't hustle...how quickly they turn.

BTW, I doubt that Seattle is going to stay a "losing environment" for too long, they have the dollars, and the pitching, to make them pretty good for a while. I certainly like their long term future better than the geriatric Yankee team...

[Sour Masher]

Damn, Cano put up some damn fine numbers for someone who was only giving 90%.

[Bob Kohm]

Then you weren't listening, Hornsby-- how surprising; I suppose it might be hard to hear anything over your internal monologue or whatever you refer to those voices in your head as More to the point, I'd call BS on you saying that anybody was talking about his great attitude, lol. It's been a point of contention and conversation for years. Sorry to mess with your usual silly narrative about all things New York Yankees, but BS is BS. The fact is that Cano is an extremely talented ballplayer and I actually hope he continues on his Hall of Fame trajectory, but there are some serious issues with his attitude towards the game which have been discussed for years now and I suspect that they will be exacerbated playing in Seattle.

[Hammer]

Yeah- Robbie being a guy who doesn't hustle isn't a secret. Its been out there for a while and even brought up a few times on Yankee telecasts.

[ironfist]

Then you weren't listening, Hornsby-- how surprising; I suppose it might be hard to hear anything over your internal monologue or whatever you refer to those voices in your head as More to the point, I'd call BS on you saying that anybody was talking about his great attitude, lol. It's been a point of contention and conversation for years. Sorry to mess with your usual silly narrative about all things New York Yankees, but BS is BS. The fact is that Cano is an extremely talented ballplayer and I actually hope he continues on his Hall of Fame trajectory, but there are some serious issues with his attitude towards the game which have been discussed for years now and I suspect that they will be exacerbated playing in Seattle.

I'll back this up. When Cano had his down year several years ago, they talked about this a lot on talkradio and on TV. But while he was hitting well, they didn't mention it as much anymore.