2k14: CC Sabathia

[revo]

Anyone see him? He looks like he's lost 40 lbs. I expect a big bounceback year from CC, and at his ADP, he's a virtual steal.

[Don Quixote]

I expect him to be better than last year but fear that his best days are behind him. His peripherals pointed to a better performance than the one he got last year when he got unlucky. So, bounceback....sure. Big bounceback? I wouldn't want to be the one to pay for that.

Velocity markedly down, K rate falling.....I think his stuff may be failing him. That may not be an enormous surprise given his massive workload over the last decade. Perhaps he can turn to finesse in a more effective manner this year but, again, I'm probably not the guy who's going to throw out $20 or whatever to find out.

Really screwed the pooch in the second half last year, so out of line that a lot of people suspect a hidden injury. The weight loss can't hurt, but there may be more to it than fatigue. Based on his history, if I can get him for under (a number I won't disclose publicly), I'm willing to take the chance.

[revo]

I expect him to be better than last year but fear that his best days are behind him. His peripherals pointed to a better performance than the one he got last year when he got unlucky. So, bounceback....sure. Big bounceback? I wouldn't want to be the one to pay for that.

Velocity markedly down, K rate falling.....I think his stuff may be failing him. That may not be an enormous surprise given his massive workload over the last decade. Perhaps he can turn to finesse in a more effective manner this year but, again, I'm probably not the guy who's going to throw out $20 or whatever to find out.

Given his current ADP, it's not likely he's a $20 player in mixed leagues.

[Moonlight J]

Need to see where the velo is before investing. Let's not forget how awful the infield defense is going to be behind him at 2B, SS, and 3B. I'm knocking all Yankee pitchers down $2 or a round based on that infield. It's wretched.

[DMT]

Need to see where the velo is before investing. Let's not forget how awful the infield defense is going to be behind him at 2B, SS, and 3B. I'm knocking all Yankee pitchers down $2 or a round based on that infield. It's wretched.

But let's not forget, as part of Jeter's farewell tour, every hitter has promised to hit him at least one routine grounder per game.

[Hornsby]

Absolutely nothing in his 2013 stats to indicate that he'll comeback significantly at all, walked more people, K'd less, didn't have a BABIP that was wildly out of line, and his fastball was down to 91 MPH. Now, can he learn how to pitch with reduced stuff, sure, WILL he learn, no way to tell. But I won't have him on any of my teams unless he falls quite a bit in price, and that won't happen.

[Don Quixote]

But let's not forget, as part of Jeter's farewell tour, every hitter has promised to hit him at least one routine grounder per game.

The question is whether he'll get to that routine grounder. Odds are that he won't and that of course it will be scored a hit.

Have they also promised him a meatball pitch for a HR in his last All-Star appearance, like they did for Cal and Mariano's "MVP" performance last year?

Baseball's All-Star Game is becoming more like the NBA's every year.

[revo]

Absolutely nothing in his 2013 stats to indicate that he'll comeback significantly at all, walked more people, K'd less, didn't have a BABIP that was wildly out of line, and his fastball was down to 91 MPH. Now, can he learn how to pitch with reduced stuff, sure, WILL he learn, no way to tell. But I won't have him on any of my teams unless he falls quite a bit in price, and that won't happen.

I really wouldn't go that far.

Were those stats you're referring to down across the board in '13? Yes, but:
- his K% was the same exact rate as it was in 2010, when he went 21-7
- His BB% was lower than what it was in 2010
- his average FB velocity was still the same or higher than King Felix, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, Madison Bumgarner & Mike Minor.

Take a look at this elite pitcher's plunge in average FB velocity:
'07 - 96.3
'08 - 94.5
'09 - 93.8
'10 - 94.4
'11 - 93.4
'12 - 92.4
'13 - 91.3

So should we be concerned about King Felix?

[Don Quixote]

I really wouldn't go that far.

Were those stats you're referring to down across the board in '13? Yes, but:
- his K% was the same exact rate as it was in 2010, when he went 21-7
- His BB% was lower than what it was in 2010
- his average FB velocity was still the same or higher than King Felix, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, Madison Bumgarner & Mike Minor.

Take a look at this elite pitcher's plunge in average FB velocity:
'07 - 96.3
'08 - 94.5
'09 - 93.8
'10 - 94.4
'11 - 93.4
'12 - 92.4
'13 - 91.3

So should we be concerned about King Felix?

In 2013, Felix' xERA dropped from 3.19 to 2.83, his Dom rose from 8.7 to 9.5 (at least the fourth year in a row that this has increased), and his Ctl fell from 2.2 to 2.0.

Sabathia's xERA rose from 3.29 to 3.89, his Dom fell from 8.9 to 7.5, and his Ctl rose from 2.0 to 2.8.

Given a choice about whom to be concerned, guess who I choose?

[Hornsby]

I really wouldn't go that far.

Were those stats you're referring to down across the board in '13? Yes, but:
- his K% was the same exact rate as it was in 2010, when he went 21-7
- His BB% was lower than what it was in 2010
- his average FB velocity was still the same or higher than King Felix, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, Madison Bumgarner & Mike Minor.

Take a look at this elite pitcher's plunge in average FB velocity:
'07 - 96.3
'08 - 94.5
'09 - 93.8
'10 - 94.4
'11 - 93.4
'12 - 92.4
'13 - 91.3

So should we be concerned about King Felix?

No, because it's patently obvious that Felix has adapted to his decreased velocity, it remains to be seen if CC can do the same. Will he still have value? Sure...but he's not going to be on any of my teams since I won't pay the premium price.

[revo]

No, because it's patently obvious that Felix has adapted to his decreased velocity, it remains to be seen if CC can do the same. Will he still have value? Sure...but he's not going to be on any of my teams since I won't pay the premium price.

His ADP in NFBC is 208, making him the #47 SP. In a 16-tm league, that makes him a 13th round pick. Is that really a "premium?" In any case, it's fair to disagree on him, but this Yankee hater thinks he'll bounce back.

[Moonlight J]

Uh, this is not good

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/cc-downplays-fastball-reaching-88-mph-phillies-article-1.1707584

[Sour Masher]

Uh, this is not good

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...icle-1.1707584

Definitely a red flag to watch, but isn't it common for FB velocity to start off a bit low and rise throughout the spring?

[Mendoza_Line]

Uh, this is not good

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...icle-1.1707584

A decrease isn't great to read about, but there is a 2nd piece to the first sentence:

"CC Sabathia’s fastball velocity flared into an issue in Yankee camp Saturday when the lefty reached only 88 mph on the radar gun while throwing two scoreless innings against the Phillies."

[cavebird]

Mechanical issues, injuries, and velocity problems are infinitely more important and relevant as predictors of future success and failure than is throwing two meaningless innings. Last year, Phillip Humber, Chris Rusin, Paul Maholm, Brandon Maurer, JA Happ, and Lucas Harrell were all top 10 for ERA during Spring Training. Sabathia's decrease in velocity is significantly more concerning than his success over two innings is encouraging.

This is all true, but CC's average fastball velocity last year was 91.1. Clocking in at three mph lower in the first spring training start doesn't sound particularly bad to me. If he's still topping out at 88 in a few weeks, then there's a problem.