NL-Only Keeper Decisions - Who Would You Keep, Who Would You Extend?

[senorsheep]

I think there's a good chance he ends up in the bullpen, and not as the closer. So I'd be very hesitant to extend him. Even if he does start, I worry he'll be very inefficient, 25 starts, 130 innings, 150 Ks but a 1.40 WHIP or something. At least in the short term. But I do think he has enough value to keep at 5, even with his role unclear.

Right, but then I'll control him next year as well. It's fairly safe to assume that he *will* have a spot in the rotation next year, isn't it? With an expanded workload? So the real question is, is it worth the extra $5 to get whatever stats he'll generate as a setup man and possible part-time starter *this* year, *plus* whatever he'll yield as a (presumably) effective full time starter *next* year? Will he justify the extension over *two* years, even if he doesn't procure a money role *this* year? Especially considering that, in my 4x4 league, we use K's instead of WHIP?

If you can't tell, I'm fishing for someone to say "Yes, you should absolutely extend him."

[james33]

Hi All,

The league: NL-only keeper, 4x4 (K's instead of WHIP), 11 teams, $260 budget.

All my Year 3 guys (**) are eligible for contract extensions ($5 per additional year), but I have to decide by March 9. Cut/ keep decisions can be made up through NL Opening Day.


Carlos Martinez, P, STL: $5, Year 2 - If he does not make the rotation out of Spring Training, is he worth keeping at this price for future value?

1) K's instead of WHIP is a good pro-Carlos Martinez argument.

2) But am I understanding this correctly -since there's no star by his name, you do not need to extend him to $10 or $15 at this point, you simply keep him for $5 this year, and then, around this time in 2015, you can then decide to either (a) keep him at $5 or (b) extend him to $10 or $15?

If I'm understanding all this right, I'd absolutely keep him at $5 even if the Cardinals announce Kelly as winner of 5th starter spot.

If you need to make an extension decision now on whether to go to $10 on Martinez, I'd still do that. Key for me is that K's instead of WHIP is a category. And his innings, should he start, will likely be limited, limiting any potential ERA damage if he struggles.

[Gregg]

Do you have time to see if he starts? If he is just a MR it may be better to throw him back rebid and get a new contract. You could go to $10 and be ahead. In our league MR do not go to $10. I would think you might get him cheaper.

[senorsheep]

1) K's instead of WHIP is a good pro-Carlos Martinez argument.

2) But am I understanding this correctly -since there's no star by his name, you do not need to extend him to $10 or $15 at this point, you simply keep him for $5 this year, and then, around this time in 2015, you can then decide to either (a) keep him at $5 or (b) extend him to $10 or $15?

If I'm understanding all this right, I'd absolutely keep him at $5 even if the Cardinals announce Kelly as winner of 5th starter spot.

If you need to make an extension decision now on whether to go to $10 on Martinez, I'd still do that. Key for me is that K's instead of WHIP is a category. And his innings, should he start, will likely be limited, limiting any potential ERA damage if he struggles.

He's in his option year, and I have to decide by Monday whether or not to extend him.

[BuckyBuckner]

Do you have time to see if he starts? If he is just a MR it may be better to throw him back rebid and get a new contract. You could go to $10 and be ahead. In our league MR do not go to $10. I would think you might get him cheaper.

But he's not a typical MR. He's a MR with serious upside. I suspect that those guys go for more than $10 in most keeper leagues. I think that if you end up spending $12 on him you are still ahead if you were to sign him to a one year extension at $10. You'll have an extra year to play with for $2 extra bucks this year.

[james33]

It's fairly safe to assume that he *will* have a spot in the rotation next year, isn't it?

Seems like it should be safe...but don't think it is 100% safe.

2015: Wainwright still under contract, Wacha and Miller not arb eligible, it'll be Lynn's first arb year. That's four guys. (though injuries do happen). Let's assume Kelly comes down to earth and isn't a factor in 2015 and that Jaime Garcia, still under contract, never comes back. Martinez' stiffest competition might be Tim Cooney (125 Ks in 118 IP in AA Springfield in 2013), who will likely start 2014 in AAA. Or Rosenthal, but that could mean Martinez as closer, which you might be happy with anyway. Or Kevin Siegrist, currently in the pen.

[Gregg]

He's in his option year, and I have to decide by Monday whether or not to extend him.

Then, i throw him back and rebid.

[senorsheep]

Seems like it should be safe...but don't think it is 100% safe.

2015: Wainwright still under contract, Wacha and Miller not arb eligible, it'll be Lynn's first arb year. That's four guys. (though injuries do happen). Let's assume Kelly comes down to earth and isn't a factor in 2015 and that Jaime Garcia, still under contract, never comes back. Martinez' stiffest competition might be Tim Cooney (125 Ks in 118 IP in AA Springfield in 2013), who will likely start 2014 in AAA. Or Rosenthal, but that could mean Martinez as closer, which you might be happy with anyway. Or Kevin Siegrist, currently in the pen.

Yeah, St. Louis' stacked rotation is a pretty good argument *against* an extension. Martinez will have to be pretty dominant this year to leapfrog somebody in that group, and the weak link (Garcia) is already under contract for 2015, and probably doesn't profile well out of the pen. Damn...

[james33]

Sorry, I didn't really mean it that way - I still think Martinez is more likely to be in the 2015 rotation than to be out of the 2015 rotation. He doesn't really need to leapfrog Siegrist or Cooney; it is Siegrist or Cooney who would have to leapfrog him. Just meant Martinez in 2015 rotation isn't a sure thing - maybe still 70-75% odds?