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NL-Only Keeper Decisions - Who Would You Keep, Who Would You Extend?

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  • #1

    NL-Only Keeper Decisions - Who Would You Keep, Who Would You Extend?

    Hi All,

    I'm seeking input on some keeper and long term contract decisions. All opinions welcome!

    The league: NL-only keeper, 4x4 (K's instead of WHIP), 11 teams, $260 budget.

    All my Year 3 guys (**) are eligible for contract extensions ($5 per additional year), but I have to decide by March 9. Cut/ keep decisions can be made up through NL Opening Day.

    Current roster:

    Carlos Gomez, OF, MIL: $2, Year 3** - Obvious LTC extension candidate, but for how many years?
    Juan Francisco, 1B, MIL: $7, Year 2 - Worth $7 if he gets the starting job?
    Chris Johnson, 3B, ATL: $1, Year 3** - Extend? How many years?
    Anthony Rendon, 2B, WSH: $10, Year 3** - Extend? How many years?
    Jake Marisnick, OF, MIA: $5, Year 2 - Worth a roster spot if he gets the starting job?

    Homer Bailey, SP, CIN: $5, Year 3** - Extend? How many years?
    Kris Medlen, SP, ATL: $5, Year 3** - Extend? How many years?
    AJ Burnett, SP, PHI: $1, Year 3** - Not planning to extend.
    Nate Eovaldi, SP, MIA: $10, Year 2 - I like the pitcher, but probably not at that price; throw him back and hope to get him cheaper?
    Tyler Thornburg, SP, MIL: $5, Year 2 - Worth a roster spot if he somehow lands a starting job?

    Carlos Martinez, P, STL: $5, Year 2 - If he does not make the rotation out of Spring Training, is he worth keeping at this price for future value?

    Aroldis Chapman, CL, CIN: $38, Year 2 - Keep at this price? I'm thinking so, just because I also have...
    Jim Henderson, CL, MIL: $4, Year 2

    Trevor Rosenthal, RP, STL: $3, Year 2 - Keep in anticipation of a greater role next year?
    Antonio Bastardo, RP, PHI: $1, Year 2 - Cut, unless you guys convince me of value this year or next.

    Thanks, guys!
    "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."
    "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
    "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all."
    Tags: None
  • #2
    I'm assuming that Rosenthal closes, in which case I keep Rosenthal and Henderson and throw Chapman back. Then call him up and watch the bidding war.

    Extensions. Keep in mind that I'm somewhat extension-phobic--

    Gomez--One or two years.
    Johnson--Keep, don't extend.
    Rendon--Same.
    Bailey--Now that he's signed long-term, two years.
    Medlen--One year.
    Burnett--Agreed, no extension. Always a threat to retire.

    Other observations--

    Francisco--Can probably get at that price if you toss him back.
    Marisnick--I don't know his skill set well enough to say. Sorry.
    Eovaldi--Not bad, but not worth that price. Throw back, try to buy for less. Marlins players could be overlooked because the team sucks.
    Thornburg--I like him, but I'm not sure he's worth that price yet. IIRC, WHIP is a problem with him, so not having WHIP works in his favor.
    Martinez--Tough call. I defer to those who follow the Cardinals more closely.
    Henderson--Of course keep.
    Bastardo--Love the name, like the price, and if they decide to move Papelbon, he could be the closer. I say keep.
    Only the madman is absolutely sure. -Robert Anton Wilson, novelist (1932-2007)

    Faith is believing what you know ain't so. -Mark Twain, author and humorist (1835-1910)

    A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices.
    -- William James

    Comment

    • #3
      How many can you keep?
      I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

      The Weakerthans Aside

      Comment

      • #4
        Originally posted by BuckyBuckner View Post
        How many can you keep?
        As many as I want.
        "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."
        "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
        "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all."

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by Don Quixote View Post
          I'm assuming that Rosenthal closes...
          Is the job officially his? Wow, I must have missed that. Boo ya!
          "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."
          "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
          "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all."

          Comment

          • #6
            Carlos Gomez, OF, MIL: $2, Year 3** - Obvious LTC extension candidate, but for how many years? At least two?
            Juan Francisco, 1B, MIL: $7, Year 2 - Worth $7 if he gets the starting job? Worth a chace
            Chris Johnson, 3B, ATL: $1, Year 3** - Extend? How many years? I'd extend one year
            Anthony Rendon, 2B, WSH: $10, Year 3** - Extend? How many years? Just keep this year, or maybe toss back and hope to get for $10-$15 but you'll have him for three years
            Jake Marisnick, OF, MIA: $5, Year 2 - Worth a roster spot if he gets the starting job? Yes, if he gets the job

            Homer Bailey, SP, CIN: $5, Year 3** - Extend? How many years? I'd extend two years
            Kris Medlen, SP, ATL: $5, Year 3** - Extend? How many years? I'd extend two years
            AJ Burnett, SP, PHI: $1, Year 3** - Not planning to extend. Agreed
            Nate Eovaldi, SP, MIA: $10, Year 2 - I like the pitcher, but probably not at that price; throw him back and hope to get him cheaper? Agreed
            Tyler Thornburg, SP, MIL: $5, Year 2 - Worth a roster spot if he somehow lands a starting job? Only if he gets a spot in the rotation

            Carlos Martinez, P, STL: $5, Year 2 - If he does not make the rotation out of Spring Training, is he worth keeping at this price for future value? Keep!

            Aroldis Chapman, CL, CIN: $38, Year 2 - Keep at this price? I'm thinking so, just because I also have... I agree with DQ, toss back since you have Henderson and Rosenthal
            Jim Henderson, CL, MIL: $4, Year 2 Keep, duh

            Trevor Rosenthal, RP, STL: $3, Year 2 - Keep in anticipation of a greater role next year? Keep, duh
            Antonio Bastardo, RP, PHI: $1, Year 2 - Cut, unless you guys convince me of value this year or next. Can't hurt to keep at a buck

            Without Thornburg, Eovaldi and Chapman that's 12 keepers for $87 with the extensions, I think. that still gives you plenty of money to get some serious studs. You can $120 on three players and get anyone you want and still have plenty of money leftover to fill out a good roster.
            I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.

            The Weakerthans Aside

            Comment

            • #7
              There's no way I keep Francisco at $7 even if he nominally has "the job" coming out of spring training. He's likely to get platooned or lose the job soon enough and while he could end up earning $7 anyway I wouldn't want to clog up my roster going into the auction with that.
              In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

              Comment

              • #8
                Carlos Gomez, OF, MIL: $2, Year 3** - Obvious LTC extension candidate, but for how many years? Extend two years. At $12, he still carries a lot of profit, and you secure him for this year and two more. Boo-ya!
                Juan Francisco, 1B, MIL: $7, Year 2 - Worth $7 if he gets the starting job? No. Just say no. Toss him in. At best, he's the better half of a platoon at 1B.
                Chris Johnson, 3B, ATL: $1, Year 3** - Extend? How many years? I'd extend one year...I think. I'd certainly not criticize for keeping just for this year at that price.
                Anthony Rendon, 2B, WSH: $10, Year 3** - Extend? How many years? Just keep this year
                Jake Marisnick, OF, MIA: $5, Year 2 - Worth a roster spot if he gets the starting job? Yes, if he gets the job

                Homer Bailey, SP, CIN: $5, Year 3** - Extend? How many years? I'd extend one year
                Kris Medlen, SP, ATL: $5, Year 3** - Extend? How many years? I'd extend one year
                AJ Burnett, SP, PHI: $1, Year 3** - Not planning to extend. Agreed
                Nate Eovaldi, SP, MIA: $10, Year 2 - I like the pitcher, but probably not at that price; throw him back and hope to get him cheaper? Agreed
                Tyler Thornburg, SP, MIL: $5, Year 2 - Worth a roster spot if he somehow lands a starting job? With the Garza signing, I'd be shocked if he lands a starting gig out of ST. I think he'll go to the bullpen, and get first shot if someone goes on the DL. Given that, I'd toss him in and hope to land him for less. IMO, he has #3 SP stuff and will be in the rotation next year.

                Carlos Martinez, P, STL: $5, Year 2 - If he does not make the rotation out of Spring Training, is he worth keeping at this price for future value? Uh, yes. Keep saying yes more often than Miley Cyrus says yes, and you'll be good. This guy has a monster arm, and the Cards aren't stupid. He'll supplant Joe Kelly in the rotation sooner rather than later, IMO.

                Aroldis Chapman, CL, CIN: $38, Year 2 - Keep at this price? I'm thinking so, just because I also have... With Rosenthal and Henderson in tow for $7, I'd toss him in.
                Jim Henderson, CL, MIL: $4, Year 2 Keep. Laugh at your opponents.

                Trevor Rosenthal, RP, STL: $3, Year 2 - Keep in anticipation of a greater role next year?Keep, drink more beer, laugh harder at opponents.
                Antonio Bastardo, RP, PHI: $1, Year 2 - Cut, unless you guys convince me of value this year or next. Cut. PED issue, piled on with bad xERA...I think you can get him for a buck or two at the end without taking up a P slot before the auction.
                I'm just here for the baseball.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by senorsheep View Post
                  Hi All,

                  I'm seeking input on some keeper and long term contract decisions. All opinions welcome!

                  The league: NL-only keeper, 4x4 (K's instead of WHIP), 11 teams, $260 budget.

                  All my Year 3 guys (**) are eligible for contract extensions ($5 per additional year), but I have to decide by March 9. Cut/ keep decisions can be made up through NL Opening Day.

                  Current roster:

                  Carlos Gomez, OF, MIL: $2, Year 3** - Obvious LTC extension candidate, but for how many years?************2, tops
                  Juan Francisco, 1B, MIL: $7, Year 2 - Worth $7 if he gets the starting job?****************pass
                  Chris Johnson, 3B, ATL: $1, Year 3** - Extend? How many years?************2, tops, better 1--I am not a believer
                  Anthony Rendon, 2B, WSH: $10, Year 3** - Extend? How many years?*************take the value, no LT
                  Jake Marisnick, OF, MIA: $5, Year 2 - Worth a roster spot if he gets the starting job?***********if you believe; he will never be cheaper

                  Homer Bailey, SP, CIN: $5, Year 3** - Extend? How many years? ***********no more than 2--he IS a pitcher!
                  Kris Medlen, SP, ATL: $5, Year 3** - Extend? How many years? ************see above
                  AJ Burnett, SP, PHI: $1, Year 3** - Not planning to extend.
                  Nate Eovaldi, SP, MIA: $10, Year 2 - I like the pitcher, but probably not at that price; throw him back and hope to get him cheaper?*******I, too, like him, but he won't go much cheaper
                  Tyler Thornburg, SP, MIL: $5, Year 2 - Worth a roster spot if he somehow lands a starting job?********see Eovaldi

                  Carlos Martinez, P, STL: $5, Year 2 - If he does not make the rotation out of Spring Training, is he worth keeping at this price for future value?*******don't know, but I would

                  Aroldis Chapman, CL, CIN: $38, Year 2 - Keep at this price? I'm thinking so, just because I also have...*************for $42. you are nicely positioned for Closers
                  Jim Henderson, CL, MIL: $4, Year 2

                  Trevor Rosenthal, RP, STL: $3, Year 2 - Keep in anticipation of a greater role next year?********Greater role next year? He is the solid closer for a World Series team! This year! How much bigger a role can he have?
                  Antonio Bastardo, RP, PHI: $1, Year 2 - Cut, unless you guys convince me of value this year or next.************cut. now.

                  Thanks, guys!
                  See above! Nice keepers, although you didn't say how many?
                  Bearin' up!

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by scottw View Post
                    See above! Nice keepers, although you didn't say how many?
                    Unlimited keepers. Thanks!
                    "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."
                    "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
                    "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all."

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      I agree with Chance, though I think I'm going 2 years on Homer. I really like Aroldis but you aren't going to need 3 closers all year and I'd be shocked if you could trade him for a $38 hitter at any point in the season.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by joncarlos View Post
                        I agree with Chance, though I think I'm going 2 years on Homer. I really like Aroldis but you aren't going to need 3 closers all year and I'd be shocked if you could trade him for a $38 hitter at any point in the season.
                        No big argument from me on going two on Bailey. I rarely extend pitchers more than a year, but Bailey would merit it on this roster.
                        I'm just here for the baseball.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Bonus question: If Carlos Martinez does *not* make the Cardinals' starting rotation out of Spring Training, do you extend him assuming he'll be there in 2015 and beyond? Or just ride him out at $5 for whatever value he can provide this year?
                          "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."
                          "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
                          "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all."

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by senorsheep View Post
                            Bonus question: If Carlos Martinez does *not* make the Cardinals' starting rotation out of Spring Training, do you extend him assuming he'll be there in 2015 and beyond? Or just ride him out at $5 for whatever value he can provide this year?
                            I think there's a good chance he ends up in the bullpen, and not as the closer. So I'd be very hesitant to extend him. Even if he does start, I worry he'll be very inefficient, 25 starts, 130 innings, 150 Ks but a 1.40 WHIP or something. At least in the short term. But I do think he has enough value to keep at 5, even with his role unclear.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Originally posted by senorsheep View Post
                              Bonus question: If Carlos Martinez does *not* make the Cardinals' starting rotation out of Spring Training, do you extend him assuming he'll be there in 2015 and beyond? Or just ride him out at $5 for whatever value he can provide this year?
                              I'd ride him out at 5. JC is right, he won't close (Rosenthal will), and maybe Joe Kelly continues to defy gravity if he gets the #5 slot. I'd be surprised if the Cards were that blind, though. As a Brewer fan, I'd be happy....but I think Martinez wins the #5 slot out of ST. He has electric stuff.
                              I'm just here for the baseball.

                              Comment

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