Mike Trout contract extension

[Gregg]

There is a guy in my AL only league that has the same issue as you do. How much to extend Trout? Well, in last years auction Cabrera went for 47, Cano 40, Ellsbury 30, Longoria 34. If it was me and I was that guy, I would go to 30 and laugh all the way to the bank.

[Hornsby]

He weighs like 240 right? What are the odds he's only stealing 10-15 bases in 2017? Then maybe he's .320-30-100-110r-12sb which is still great but not spectacularly profitable at 30 or 35.

I don't think that you worry about weight with an athlete like trout until he hit's his later 20's or early 30's. And keeper prices are always subjective, depending on your league parameters...I'm probably keeping an at value Miggy at 60 bucks in the RJEL, an 18 team mixed. Knowing that there's crazy inflation and little back in the pool to bid on, it makes sense to me. I honestly can't see any way a 30 dollar Trout doesn't return a profit in a 12 team mixed with 20% inflation.

[wannabegriffey]

I guess if you have zero doubt that fishboy keeps up the HoF stats but what if he drops back 10% or gets injured? If you go $20 (or $25), there is still lots of room for profit, you are not over committed, and he is a valuable trade piece if need be.

I am conservative in nature when it comes to extensions and I think going $30 or $35 is wasteful in such a short-term game that we play.

Edit: I know I am a minority here but I actually hope the fishboy owner in my league goes to $30 or more with the extension in March.

[Judge Jude]

I would not go above 25, and I'd aggressively try to win a title with him in each of those years.

I've never understood the fascination with extending players so long that the profit you get isn't enough to really differentiate you from other teams. Unless you're more interesting in being competitive than actually winning pennants, that is.

[gcstomp]

I know it depends on if/what type of trading in league. On a thru 2017, $30, you will have the profit/ build around base of Trout in 2014, 2015. Then how do you value the freakin $120+ in trade value you will get for Trout in year 2016 to a rebuilder (who will want him for year 2017) when you trade him and you take off like a jet in standings? If you have few trades, more subdued league, maybe no bench, no hyper traders, no aggressive rebuilders, then sure, shorter contract is better.

[Hornsby]

I know it depends on if/what type of trading in league. On a thru 2017, $30, you will have the profit/ build around base of Trout in 2014, 2015. Then how do you value the freakin $120+ in trade value you will get for Trout in year 2016 to a rebuilder (who will want him for year 2017) when you trade him and you take off like a jet in standings? If you have few trades, more subdued league, maybe no bench, no hyper traders, no aggressive rebuilders, then sure, shorter contract is better.

Very valid point...you have to look at a contract like this through the prism of your own league, and what he may be worth in different formats. And the real bottom line is twofold IMO...the stats that Trout brings to the table, and the potential return that he'd bring in any deal. No matter when you trade him off, IF you trade him, he'll bring a boatload back simply because he's a stat-stuffer in 5 categories. And I think that stands in any league, even one that has sluggish trading...smart owners know that winning a flag is a hard thing to do, and will take the shot when the opportunity is there.

[madducks]

All the talk of $15 yearly profits and $10 yearly profits assumes that those profit dollars will be spent on another top notch player. That's not guaranteed. If you spend the extra $15-10 on Trout, you know you are getting great value. I would rather have Trout "at value" for five years than to have Trout $15-10 "under value" for two or three years. If there were doubts about his ability to maintain his current level of production beyond that time frame i could see it. But the kid is only 22 years old! No matter what his price (or health) is, he will still be a valuable trade commodity in a keeper league. Trout is one of only a handful of players that i would even consider giving a five year contract to.

[Judge Jude]

All the talk of $15 yearly profits and $10 yearly profits assumes that those profit dollars will be spent on another top notch player. That's not guaranteed.

nothing is guaranteed, not even Trout at 30 bucks a year.

[madducks]

nothing is guaranteed, not even Trout at 30 bucks a year.

Maybe. But, i think the odds are a lot more favorable with a top five player who is in his early to mid twenties.

[wannabegriffey]

nothing is guaranteed, not even Trout at 30 bucks a year.

Amen brother.

[james33]

I'd stick with $25. Let's say he earns an average of $45 per year.

$25 at three years: Profit = ($45-$25)*3 = $60

$30 at four years: Profit = ($45-$30)*4 = $60

So the money is a wash. And $45 average is a fairly generous assumption; injuries do happen. There's also something about that $25 salary that, in leagues I'm in, would make him more attractive to a dumper as a keeper. In other words, this year or next, whenever you make a title run, I think you'd be able to trade him for a lot more value at $25 through 2016.