Auction Strategy...

[madducks]

Last year i kept Braun at $48. That didn't work out too well because of the thumb injury and suspension. I thought he would appeal any suspension and play the majority of the season. So, i gambled and lost.

This year, i'm seriously considering keeping Beltre at $32. If i put him back in the auction and Miggy ($67) is kept by his owner, Beltre could be the best available 3B and go for $10-15 more. Either way i think Beltre goes for at least $40 in my league (14 team mixed-$300 budget-8 keepers). So he may be slightly below value at $32, but still not cheap.

[Fresno Bob]

I have McCutchen and Cargo each at 46, Tulo at 41 and Kershaw at 37 in my 12 team NL only. I'm thinking of keeping McCutchen and Kershaw. Depends on your other keepers, do you have the horses to go for it this year, if so, then keep a full value stud, especially if your inflation is high

[james33]

Final Keeper Decision
Player A: $8 salary, $12 value ($4 in savings)
Player B: $31 salary, $32 value ($1 in savings)

So at first glance, keep Player A, right?

I agree with most here that it depends on the league. Specifically, I estimate inflation and take inflation into account when choosing whether to protect my studs.

Let's say Estimated Inflation = 25%, so, what we really have is:

Player A (with inflation): $8 salary, would go for $15 with inflation at auction ($7 in savings)
Player B (with inflation): $31 salary, would go for $40 with inflation at auction ($9 in savings)

So I'm keeping Player B.

[Grinch]

Final Keeper Decision
Player A: $8 salary, $12 value ($4 in savings)
Player B: $31 salary, $32 value ($1 in savings)

So at first glance, keep Player A, right?

I agree with most here that it depends on the league. Specifically, I estimate inflation and take inflation into account when choosing whether to protect my studs.

Let's say Estimated Inflation = 25%, so, what we really have is:

Player A (with inflation): $8 salary, would go for $15 with inflation at auction ($7 in savings)
Player B (with inflation): $31 salary, would go for $40 with inflation at auction ($9 in savings)

So I'm keeping Player B.

The other thing to consider with inflation is that it is not distributed equally and generally gets eaten up almost totally in the top half of the player pool. So in your example, Player A may go for $13 and Player B $43.

[TranaGreg]

I still don't really buy the premise that getting "value" is the best way to construct a team. Of course if you overspend for all your targets you'll presumably run out of money and be unable to actually acquire all your targets. Still, a team full of $8 guys that you bought for $4 is still just a team full of mediocrities.

I think part of the premise is that you still spend out your budget (260 or whatever).

[madducks]

I still don't really buy the premise that getting "value" is the best way to construct a team. Of course if you overspend for all your targets you'll presumably run out of money and be unable to actually acquire all your targets. Still, a team full of $8 guys that you bought for $4 is still just a team full of mediocrities.

I always try to get a few players who have been healthy and put up all-star caliber numbers for the last 2 or more seasons. Usually these players cost more than $30 but are worth it. But after you get 3-6 of these players your budget leaves no choice but to go after "value" picks. I guess that's called the stars and scrubs strategy.

[Mithrandir]

I always try to get a few players who have been healthy and put up all-star caliber numbers for the last 2 or more seasons. Usually these players cost more than $30 but are worth it. But after you get 3-6 of these players your budget leaves no choice but to go after "value" picks. I guess that's called the stars and scrubs strategy.

But our league is insane in what we pay for the stars. I bet we have at least 8 or more players that go for over $50 so keeping at value players in the 30 -40 dollar range makes sense.

[kldub4life]

First off I have never been in an auction that coming in had a negative inflation rate calculation. Because of this an at value stud keeper is better that paying inflated value for the studs available.

The lower the risk on the keeper obviously the better.

One of the issues with just figuring potential for value or earnings vs cost is that just because a guy brings you value does not necessarily mean they bring total stats.

For instance player A costs $20 and projects to bring you $2 more in production (however those stats are 20/20/90/70/.290)

Whereas player B costs $2 and is set to bring you $6 or a $4 profit (twice as much as player A)

Even though Player B brings twice the profit how do the stats actually add up across the board (also figuing out using the other $4) is a net positive in the stats as it pertains to your teams overall outlook.

Just food for thought anyway.

[Big Tymer]

We should also keep in mind that we're talking about "projected value" right now since we don't know the end of the year stats for anyone. As we all know, projections are just one possible outcome for a player and the less track record a player has the higher the beta. Thus, keeping a stud "at value" might be a far safer play and more likely to return usable stats than say taking a flyer on the latest thing who some model predicts will return $5 more.

[SlideRule]

I think part of the premise is that you still spend out your budget (260 or whatever).

Of course, but sometimes this is easier said than done. I've found that I often end up in the middle-end of the auction with money and no good players left to spend it on. So you can end up getting a $12 guy at a bargain for $7 or $8, but getting that extra $4 back in your pocket doesn't help much if you can't use it on something good. To avoid this I try to make myself keep or spend on at least 1 or 2 "stud" types to make sure I don't end up with a lot of good prices on players but not a lot of good players.

Also, about inflation distribution I find that it tails off at the high end players in our league. People are scared to spend much over $30-35 so a player with a $35 value might go for $35 or $38 even if we have 20% inflation, while the $15-$20 players may go for $20-30. And a lot of of times inflation hovers at less than the final value and then jumps a lot at the endgame when people realize they have too much money and spend $18 on Kila Kiahuhue or something preposterous like that just to not get stuck with someone even worse (is that possible?).

[mjl]

I am horrible at that. I make my wife text me ten minutes after my draft starts reminding me to buy someone expensive, because I always feel like the superstars are going more expensive than I have projected and I want to wait for the next one, and then suddenly there's only one star left and he's too expensive too so I redefine "star" and I end up building my team around Beltre or Castro or someone else like that who's pretty good but not one of the 20 best players available.

[Fresno Bob]

I'm keeping McCutchen at $46 and Kershaw at $37 in my primary 12 team NL only league, I'm not keeping CarGo at 46 or Tulo at 42 though

[Mithrandir]

I made a trade for Miggy to keep at $67 in my 14 team mixed 5x5. But the draft budget is $300 so he would be $58 in a $260 budget!!

I also have Trout for $11 and he has to be thrown back in 2015..so i have Miggy and Trout for $78

Stud prices are very high in this league..10 players went for over $50 last season. And another 7 went for over $40.

[Judge Jude]

I am horrible at that. I make my wife text me ten minutes after my draft starts reminding me to buy someone expensive, because I always feel like the superstars are going more expensive than I have projected and I want to wait for the next one, and then suddenly there's only one star left and he's too expensive too so I redefine "star" and I end up building my team around Beltre or Castro or someone else like that who's pretty good but not one of the 20 best players available.

VERY common issue. I am not as gungho at having people calculate inflation only because a miscalculation could doom you.
BUT you also need to be aware of the fact of inflation, what sort of projected profit you have, and what stars are worth in your league, roughly, given inflation.

I always say, in a crazy auction, the best landing spot is just a little bit short of crazy. Too much above or below that, and it doesn't work.

If you have lots of protected projected profit, bid full inflated value if need be on boring, consistent stars.
If you have a weak keeper list, take some chances unless you just want to buy a couple of max-out studs, sell them in June and rebuild for the following year.

[Hammer]

I'm keeping McCutchen at $46 and Kershaw at $37 in my primary 12 team NL only league, I'm not keeping CarGo at 46 or Tulo at 42 though

considering those 4 represent about 70% of your budget, the rest of that roster musta been very young or very bad.