Auction Strategy...

[Hornsby]

Auction season is coming up and I'm curious as to how many of you think that holding at value studs is a good strategy vs. throwing them back and saving the money?

[Judge Jude]

depends a LOT on number of keepers allowed, typical inflation rate, and owner buying tendencies at auction, as well as how long one can own a player at the purchase price...

[Hornsby]

depends a LOT on number of keepers allowed, typical inflation rate, and owner buying tendencies at auction, as well as how long one can own a player at the purchase price...

I'm just trying to get a feel for general overall thoughts on the strategy...obviously every league has it's individual quirks. For instance, is it better to hold an at value hitter at say, 50, or to try to spread the money around and buy two 25 dollar guys, or even 3 guys for the same 50? It's not exactly stars and scrubs, but something similar.

Another way to put it might be do you need to have a couple of at value uber studs to build around, or is spreading the wealth and going for a balanced, but middling upside, a better way to go?

I've done both, and really don't have a better track record one way or another, wondering if other have had a successful strategy going in one particular direction.

[popeye]

If I think the studs I have are at reasonable or good prices and they are likely to go for more if I throw them back, I keep them.

[Weapon1]

I sort of use an opportunity cost concept, viewing it as the more money I spend on keepers, the less I have to participate in the auction. So I look at what's going to be available. The more talent available that year, the more likely it is that there will be some bargains, so if that is the case, I'll throw any at-value player, stud or otherwise, back.

[mjl]

I think I tend to do whatever the rest of the league usually does, which is different in each of the leagues I'm in. But if you throw your at-value studs back and nobody else does, you can end up in a situation where there's only one $40 guy available and maybe a couple other teams decide they have to have him, and you end up paying way more than you had planned. If there are enough other top-end guys in the auction, it's not so bad if you come in needing to buy one or two.

[chancellor]

I tend not to keep high priced studs, but my league has fairly low inflation since we allow players to be kept for only a max of three years.

[Don Quixote]

What I've been doing has evidently been wrong the last few years.

Generally, I try to get a feel for what is going to be kept around the league before deciding. I look for profit first, then at-value guys. If I can't fill my freeze list with guys for whom I foresee a profit, I may keep an at-value stud or a low-cost guy who fills a tough position like C or MI.

[Grinch]

I think one common failing in keeper leagues is that guys hold high priced guys on the thinking that 'he would go for more than that'. I only keep a guy if I think 'he will be worth more than that'. If I don't think he will earn that much, but will go for more than I have him at I will try to trade him. I also generally throw the guy back anytime I am on the fence.

[Rush]

I don't have any qualms about holding an at value star if the auction looks light at that position.

Last year SP was going to be really light at auction, with only one top 12 player available. I kept Jarod Weaver at value so I'd have two top starters. This year the SP ranks will be flush with 5 expiring contracts on top 10 starters, plus a couple throwbacks. I'm tossing any SP I have that are even close to value and hope to reload with some quality arms.

[Erik]

I don't have any qualms about holding an at value star if the auction looks light at that position.

This. I try to predict who will be kept, and if a certain position looks like it might be light in the auction pool, I am more likely to consider at-value star players from that position.

[TranaGreg]

In my AL league I restrict high priced keepers to guys who have unique skills - e.g. Miggy with the power+BA. A couple of years ago I did the math & realized just how much more valuable Verlander was with his 230+ IP, versus a guy who might have an almost as good ERA/WHIP with 50 fewer IP; it made me keep a $35 Verlander when I was about to throw him back.

But these are the exceptions. Generally I don't hold onto at-value studs.

[Andrewski]

I always keep studs at whatever price they are at. Especially Miggy at 60. Man oh man, I wish I had him this year.

Nice try, Steve.

[Hornsby]

I always keep studs at whatever price they are at. Especially Miggy at 60. Man oh man, I wish I had him this year.

Nice try, Steve.

LOL...nice deal for you, BTW. but it's the ultimate boom or bust. Hanley healthy, you lose, Hanley injured, you win. Gomez going back to old Gomez, you really lose...

So keep on throwing concepts out there guys, it's very instructional...

[Mithrandir]

Another factor has to be the prices and values of your other keepers. I have Trout for $11 in my 14 mixed league (draft day budget of $300) so if had say Miggy at $55-60 i would keep him. I also have Craig at $6 and Segura for $1 so i might even keep another at value stud if i had one.