2K24: Washington Nationals

[Moonlight J]

What is your opinion of the incoming players to Oakland ??

Don't know the prospects but Treinen probably does very well in Oakland

[revo]

Gio Gonzalez:
12-5
2.39 ERA
1.12 WHIP

Who saw this coming?

[pitbull]

Gio Gonzalez:
12-5
2.39 ERA
1.12 WHIP

Who saw this coming?

This is part in fantasy baseball where I always have trouble with. If I had gotten Gio in the draft I know my expectations would not have been anywhere he is now. This might end up as his best season ever. The one area that stands out is his career strand rate is 74% and this season it is 83% so maybe luckier perhaps. His pitching turn-around is comparable to players like Reynolds and Zimmerman. I cannot possibly believe that anybody could have predicted these players having the type of seasons that they have put out so far. Perhaps there should be thread on this. I have been doing this since 1991 and i'm no great expert but I sure would like to hear if anybody can provide insight on this. Selecting players like them could be a difference maker in winning your league championship.

[harmon]

This is part in fantasy baseball where I always have trouble with. If I had gotten Gio in the draft I know my expectations would not have been anywhere he is now. This might end up as his best season ever. The one area that stands out is his career strand rate is 74% and this season it is 83% so maybe luckier perhaps. His pitching turn-around is comparable to players like Reynolds and Zimmerman. I cannot possibly believe that anybody could have predicted these players having the type of seasons that they have put out so far. Perhaps there should be thread on this. I have been doing this since 1991 and i'm no great expert but I sure would like to hear if anybody can provide insight on this. Selecting players like them could be a difference maker in winning your league championship.

When veteran players have career years my bet is it's usually related mostly to health. If you can somehow get a strong feeling from off season reports or spring training that a player has turned a corner health wise then it might be worth a look see. Problem is there are so many "best shape of my life" reports that it's hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. Probably more than anything it's just good luck in avoiding the type of injuries that have plagued them in the past. Second half vs first half stats from the previous year may also be telling.

[mjl]

He has basically the same numbers as last year, almost identical K/9, BB/9, HR/9, FIP, xFIP, but his BABIP is down seventy points, down to fifty points below his career numbers mostly set when he was a better pitcher. Pretty much by definition you can't predict that.

[revo]

This is part in fantasy baseball where I always have trouble with. If I had gotten Gio in the draft I know my expectations would not have been anywhere he is now. This might end up as his best season ever. The one area that stands out is his career strand rate is 74% and this season it is 83% so maybe luckier perhaps. His pitching turn-around is comparable to players like Reynolds and Zimmerman. I cannot possibly believe that anybody could have predicted these players having the type of seasons that they have put out so far. Perhaps there should be thread on this. I have been doing this since 1991 and i'm no great expert but I sure would like to hear if anybody can provide insight on this. Selecting players like them could be a difference maker in winning your league championship.

I used to do that annual thread on "Increased Playing Time Breakouts" but that looked for players who were expected to play far more. This obviously isn't that. This year has far more veteran performance spikes than I can ever remember, and I have no idea why this is.

[Sour Masher]

I used to do that annual thread on "Increased Playing Time Breakouts" but that looked for players who were expected to play far more. This obviously isn't that. This year has far more veteran performance spikes than I can ever remember, and I have no idea why this is.

I don't know either, but some of it does go back to the old quote from Bill James that once a player displays a skill, he owns it. Gio has displayed most of what he is showing this year. The only difference is that he is putting it all together and having some luck at the same time. Year's like Gio's is why I go the extra buck or two in auction on guys who have displayed high skills before. The hope is you catch a guy who has another great year left in him, or one who puts it all together at the same time.

To me, it is a little less surprising that a few players like Gio are showing all the skills they have shown before in a perfect storm of glory. It is the large number of guys who have never shown, at least in the majors, the level of skills they have shown this year. Very late bloomers like Justin Smoak come to mind. Sure he was a blue chip prospect, but he has never shown this level of power, not even in his minor league heyday. You don't expect a guy with as many major league ABs as he had coming into 2017 suddenly exploding at age 30.

[Art Vandelay]

I keep looking at Bryce Harper's historical stat line and can't shake the feeling that who ever signs him for 8-10 years, $300-$500 is going to regret it.

I get it. Young. When healthy, he is very productive. But I see a lot of dl time already in his short career. However, not many of these long term contracts work out. Add these things together, and I don't feel there is a good future in those years.

All that said, I look forward to my first semi throw up when boras fires his opening salvo in November: "bryce...greatest ever...worth 15 years...$1,000,000,000...blah blah blah". Not like boras is going to aim low or anything...

[cavebird]

He won't go low, and he shouldn't. His prime years are for sale. And inflation of contracts makes a huge contract at the start not so big at the end. He's had a bunch of hustle injuries so far, I imagine those go down as he ages and gets wiser.

[Sour Masher]

He won't go low, and he shouldn't. His prime years are for sale. And inflation of contracts makes a huge contract at the start not so big at the end. He's had a bunch of hustle injuries so far, I imagine those go down as he ages and gets wiser.

This is all true, but it also looks like the hyper-inflation we have seen in contracts has slowed, and may even be reversing a bit. I no longer think we are at a point when 10 years from now everyone is making much more than they were now. Given his injury history, current baseball economy, and current increased wariness of over-committing guaranteed money, I wouldn't be surprised if Harper had to settle for "just" an Arod contract--10 years, 250 million.

[Art Vandelay]

This is all true, but it also looks like the hyper-inflation we have seen in contracts has slowed, and may even be reversing a bit. I no longer think we are at a point when 10 years from now everyone is making much more than they were now. Given his injury history, current baseball economy, and current increased wariness of over-committing guaranteed money, I wouldn't be surprised if Harper had to settle for "just" an Arod contract--10 years, 250 million.

Who gets more: harper or machado?

[cavebird]

Who gets more: harper or machado?

Probably Machado. Yankees want him and he has positional upside. But how they do this year could change this.

[cavebird]

This is all true, but it also looks like the hyper-inflation we have seen in contracts has slowed, and may even be reversing a bit. I no longer think we are at a point when 10 years from now everyone is making much more than they were now. Given his injury history, current baseball economy, and current increased wariness of over-committing guaranteed money, I wouldn't be surprised if Harper had to settle for "just" an Arod contract--10 years, 250 million.

Not sure about that. The money flow is just getting bigger. Things took a step back this year because of the collective bargaining agreement---the perfect storm. The teams who always bust the cap wanted to reset the penalty and the free agent class was weak compared to next year. All the big players are back in next year. It will be a feeding frenzy. Yes, teams have learned about age, but Harper and Machado will be very young free agents, and 10/350 could be just fine for a team for them.

[chancellor]

Who gets more: harper or machado?

I think Harper will, but either one could fund the Bullpen for the next ten years with about an hour of their salary.

[Pauly]

The guy isnt Cy Young or anything, but if you are playing NL only, Hellickson should be on your radar after AJ Cole got obliterated by the Braves last night.