2K24: Houston Astros

[cardboardbox]

Happy to be of service to needy types like yourself.




http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...raft/10036057/

You think he would work at 97 mph in the majors?

[Hornsby]

What does it matter? He's currently go a 97 MPH fastball, end of story.

[cardboardbox]

What does it matter? He's currently go a 97 MPH fastball, end of story.

you brought it up so I guess you would have to answer "why does it matter."

[rhd]

Excellent article at BP about the Houston-Aiken-Nix situation, the roles of MLB, the MLBPA, and the NCAA in this and the possible ramifications for the parties involved:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24223#commentMessage

[Hornsby]

Excellent article at BP about the Houston-Aiken-Nix situation, the roles of MLB, the MLBPA, and the NCAA in this and the possible ramifications for the parties involved:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...commentMessage

Very interesting read rhd, thanks for posting it. You continue to do a great service to this site...

[overkill94]

Sorry to derail the hullabaloo, but is there any reason at all to hold onto Jesse Crain anymore? Like is there some tiny chance Qualls gets traded and Crain gets a few saves?

[Bodhizefa]

Sorry to derail the hullabaloo, but is there any reason at all to hold onto Jesse Crain anymore? Like is there some tiny chance Qualls gets traded and Crain gets a few saves?

I doubt it. Have you seen Josh Fields' numbers lately? Dude has been lights out to the max, and with Houston looking to the future and Crain on a one year deal, Fields could easily be slotted into the closer gig (or at least be thrown in the mix of a committee).

[Bodhizefa]

What does it matter? He's currently go a 97 MPH fastball, end of story.

As cardboardbox said, it's really rare for a young pitcher's velocity to increase with an increase in workload. You're talking about projectability of someone who could grow into his frame, but a lot of the scouting reports I've read have Aiken as pretty mature for his age physically. Who knows in the end, but I certainly wouldn't bank on Aiken throwing 97mph with regularity once he hits the big leagues.

[Hornsby]

As cardboardbox said, it's really rare for a young pitcher's velocity to increase with an increase in workload. You're talking about projectability of someone who could grow into his frame, but a lot of the scouting reports I've read have Aiken as pretty mature for his age physically. Who knows in the end, but I certainly wouldn't bank on Aiken throwing 97mph with regularity once he hits the big leagues.

Again, people are reading things that aren't there. I posted that he has a 97 MPH fastball, period. Never said that he'd sit at 97 now or in the future. It's like people saying that Aroldis Chapman has a 101 MPH fastball...he can dial it up there on rare occasions, but he doesn't pitch there all the time. And a lot depends on what the future holds for Aiken...if he's a starter, he'll likely work his fastball in the low 90's range, dialing it up if and when he needs it. If he becomes a bullpen guy, he can let it all hang out for an inning and probably hit the mid 90's and higher fairly consistently.

[cardboardbox]

Again, people are reading things that aren't there. I posted that he has a 97 MPH fastball, period. Never said that he'd sit at 97 now or in the future. It's like people saying that Aroldis Chapman has a 101 MPH fastball...he can dial it up there on rare occasions, but he doesn't pitch there all the time. And a lot depends on what the future holds for Aiken...if he's a starter, he'll likely work his fastball in the low 90's range, dialing it up if and when he needs it. If he becomes a bullpen guy, he can let it all hang out for an inning and probably hit the mid 90's and higher fairly consistently.

then why even mention it if you dont want anyone talking about you mentioning it? I believe you brought it up as some sort of proof that Aiken's arm is healthy. But all that means is its healthy now.

I found one report of Aiken getting up to 97 in his last start of the year, probably airing it out because the was nothing to hold back for. In June Law reported up to 95 mph. In the majors, if healthy, he was likely to be in the 91-93 mph range.

Chapman averages 100.2 mph on his FB. I'm sure he hits 99-101 regularly. Aiken may get up to 95-97 sometimes but in HS he was working around 93 mph and in the majors we'd expect that to drop because of less rest between starts.

[Hornsby]

then why even mention it if you dont want anyone talking about you mentioning it? I believe you brought it up as some sort of proof that Aiken's arm is healthy. But all that means is its healthy now.

I found one report of Aiken getting up to 97 in his last start of the year, probably airing it out because the was nothing to hold back for. In June Law reported up to 95 mph. In the majors, if healthy, he was likely to be in the 91-93 mph range.

Chapman averages 100.2 mph on his FB. I'm sure he hits 99-101 regularly. Aiken may get up to 95-97 sometimes but in HS he was working around 93 mph and in the majors we'd expect that to drop because of less rest between starts.

I don't care if people mention it, I just want them to get the facts right...nothing more than that. And reading comprehension lesson for you...never said that 97 was proof of anything other than he could hit 97. He could blow his arm out tomorrow, or get hit by a bus...and he's not hitting 97 anymore. I've said that all along and I haven't changed, despite your attempts to spin it.

And the last sentence of your post? Pretty much exactly what I said in the previous post...

I'm done now, your contentiousness without ever breaking any new ground is exceedingly tiresome...I'm sure that Bryan can sympathise.

[onejayhawk]

What kind of terms are you talking/

One ball cap. Team of choice: MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, College.

You win if he goes #1. I win if he goes #4 or lower. Push if he goes to UCLA or gets drafted #2 or #3.

J

[cardboardbox]

Excellent article at BP about the Houston-Aiken-Nix situation, the roles of MLB, the MLBPA, and the NCAA in this and the possible ramifications for the parties involved:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...commentMessage

This is one of the more anti-Astros articles I've read about this matter. Read the 3rd and 4th comments where a reader points out that the Astros BATNA was getting the 2nd pick next year. The author doesnt give much weight to it in the very lengthy article but I think its very important to realize that the Astros preferred getting the 2nd pick over signing Aiken+Nix.

I did however learn something new. Aiken/Close may have turned down the $5M knowing that he was likely get less money in the future because of the increased chance Aiken is made a FA. Even a damaged player like Aiken could easily get more than a $7M contract on the open market. Waaaay more.

A very good comment here:

If the Astros believe Aiken is broken (worth less than 3.1 million), then all the frequently stated criticism is off base, and the only legit criticism is why they would throw away 1.9 million by later offering him 5 million. Presumably, that was a peace offering to Aiken at an amount which still allowed them to sign both Nix and Marshall.

If the Astros didn't believe Aiken was broken (worth less than 3.1 million), then they were disingenuous and stupid. Luhnow might be criticized for being cold-hearted, too wed to his stats, and disingenuous, but I personally don't buy into any notion that he is stupid in this manner. Crane yes; Luhnow no.

All told, it comes down to the Astros analysis of the "injury" and since no one in the public is privy to the info, nor likely capable of true analysis if they had the info, they are criticizing in a vacuum. Criticizing just to criticize in many cases.

[cardboardbox]

I don't care if people mention it, I just want them to get the facts right...nothing more than that. And reading comprehension lesson for you...never said that 97 was proof of anything other than he could hit 97. He could blow his arm out tomorrow, or get hit by a bus...and he's not hitting 97 anymore. I've said that all along and I haven't changed, despite your attempts to spin it.

Maybe it'll actually turn out to be better for the kid...surrounding muscle groups built up to help take the strain off the elbow, allowing him to throw a 97 MPH fastball and a great breaking ball without putting as much strain on a flawed design.

yeah, adding the point about Aiken throwing 97 right in the middle of talking about his different anatomy didnt mean anything. Got it.

And the last sentence of your post? Pretty much exactly what I said in the previous post...

funny because I said that a few posts before yours.

I'm done now, your contentiousness without ever breaking any new ground is exceedingly tiresome...I'm sure that Bryan can sympathise.

This is just you, as was already pointed out, digging your heels in. You like to argue even when its pretty clear you have no chance of being right. Aiken is not going #1 next year and everyone but you will admit it.

Who is Bryan?

[cardboardbox]

I doubt it. Have you seen Josh Fields' numbers lately? Dude has been lights out to the max, and with Houston looking to the future and Crain on a one year deal, Fields could easily be slotted into the closer gig (or at least be thrown in the mix of a committee).

Even if Crain came off the DL in a week and Qualls were gone, I dont think he would close. I think the Astros need to figure out if Fields can handle the job. I dont really expect Qualls to be traded though.