2K24: Houston Astros

[Bodhizefa]

I'm not sure though what you mean that "some GM's don't appreciate it", since I don't think other GM's really care how we negotiate with players.

I meant that some GM's allegedly don't appreciate how Luhnow handles negotiations with them (as in other GM's personally, one-on-one) in trade talks. I would agree that I don't think other GM's care how you negotiate with players.

[wannabegriffey]

Fact is, an 18 year old left $5,000,000 (that's a lot of zero's) on the table for pride?

Low ball me all you want if you are still giving me 5 mil...

[Bodhizefa]

Fact is, an 18 year old left $5,000,000 (that's a lot of zero's) on the table for pride?

Low ball me all you want if you are still giving me 5 mil...

There's no doubt in my mind that Aiken was foolish to pass up the $5 million. Again, he's not blameless in this incident.

[cardboardbox]

Apparently you missed the conversation about the elbow where pretty much every doctor said that the fact that he has a small ligament in and of itself means virtually nothing at all. You're jumping to conclusions where the medical people aren't.

maybe he never injures his elbow, maybe he has perfect health his entire career. But that doesnt change the fact that his risk is greater and no one wants to pick a player #1 with increased risk.

And then add in the variability of year to year pitching performances... Aiken could go to JC and pitch very well and stay healthy but still end up much lower than #1 on the scouts ranking. Maybe next year the scouts think he's in the #5-10 range. Still a very good player, but not #1 and then he is offered $2.5M.

[cardboardbox]

I agree with you wholeheartedly. We all act like a top talent is always going to perform at his max capability, but scouts (and people) are generally fickle when we see anyone waver in any capacity from their perceived norm. Carlos Rodon was a lock to be #1 at this time last year, and he fell this year. In any given season in fantasy drafts, the #1 fantasy pick often fails to be the best player, too, and many times that player is chosen at a slightly lower spot the ensuing year. Performance varies, and what are the odds that, even if healthy, Aiken is able to repeat his amazing performance from this year as he moves up into Junior College or an Independent league? And that's not even considering the likelihood that he could be injured. And then there's the issue of what teams will think of him for not even negotiating at the end when the Astros came calling with a $5 million offer. Who knows how that will affect his future stock?

I very much doubt Aiken comes back as the #1 pick. I can see him being a Top 10 guy if he stays healthy, but #1? There's very little chance.

yep, agreed. Not at all realistic that Aiken goes #1 next year.

Speaking of Rodon, BA reported he made his MRI available before the draft. MLB should move quickly to get the top players checked out before the draft so this doesnt happen again.

[cavebird]

Here's my take on this, worth about as much as the lack of paper I am putting it on:

1. Nodoby looks good here, except Nix. Aiken left $5 million on the table. The Astros, I am not sure what the deal was there. If they still wanted Aiken after seeing the medicals, blowing both Aiken and Nix over $1.5 million or so (the difference between the original offer and the final offer) doesn't make any sense---that is peanuts to a major league team. If they really preferred the #2 pick next year to Aiken after seeing the medicals, why make any offer beyond the minimum required to get the pick? (They might not have, the "final offer" is just speculation as far as I know.) Nix was just a casualty of the system that is set up where slots exist but can be spread around. He was considered a tough sign, which is why he fell. I feel bad for him if this public blowup causes him to lose his NCAA eligibility---if he wanted to sign for slot money where he would have been selected if he was not a tough sign, he would have gone higher, so he clearly wanted to go to school unless he was offered too much money to pass up. This way, he may lose out on both without really having anything to do with the situation. Part of this is on silly NCAA rules, but still.

2. The thought that it may cause union troubles is way overblown. The only thing the union and management agreed upon in the last CBA was to shaft the draft picks and amatuer free agent signees. I doubt this changes.

[cardboardbox]

Here's my take on this, worth about as much as the lack of paper I am putting it on:

1. Nodoby looks good here, except Nix. Aiken left $5 million on the table. The Astros, I am not sure what the deal was there. If they still wanted Aiken after seeing the medicals, blowing both Aiken and Nix over $1.5 million or so (the difference between the original offer and the final offer) doesn't make any sense---that is peanuts to a major league team. If they really preferred the #2 pick next year to Aiken after seeing the medicals, why make any offer beyond the minimum required to get the pick?

They may have been able to sign Aiken, Nix, and Mac if Aiken took $5M. Or perhaps they really didnt want to offer more than $3M but went to $5M to avoid the Astros are awful discussions making the rounds.

[Hornsby]

wow, misread much? it's risk. even though he's fine now, there's a potential issue down the road because "his anatomy is different." and if he *does* have problems, TJ is not a simple solution. i take this as a yellow flag, definitely, maybe even tinting to red.

LOL...there's a potential issue with EVERY pitcher down the road. Every. Last. One. It's the totally unnatural act of throwing an object repeatedly, at high rates of speed, and trying to get it to do things that it shouldn't aerodynamically.

You can take it however you want, it makes no difference. 5 different doctors saw Aiken, and they all have opinions...but none of them said that this kid can't pitch, or is going to break down in the next (blank) years. If that was the case, the Astros wouldn't have continued to try to sign him. 5 million is a whole lot of money to invest in someone that you've been told is likely to break down, and his repair is going to be highly questionable. Look at the list of pitchers just this season who've had arm and shoulder injuries...none of them are predictable, and neither is this one. If you have a crystal ball that can tell the future, let me know...

[onejayhawk]

LOL...there's a potential issue with EVERY pitcher down the road. Every. Last. One. It's the totally unnatural act of throwing an object repeatedly, at high rates of speed, and trying to get it to do things that it shouldn't aerodynamically.

You can take it however you want, it makes no difference. 5 different doctors saw Aiken, and they all have opinions...but none of them said that this kid can't pitch, or is going to break down in the next (blank) years. If that was the case, the Astros wouldn't have continued to try to sign him. 5 million is a whole lot of money to invest in someone that you've been told is likely to break down, and his repair is going to be highly questionable. Look at the list of pitchers just this season who've had arm and shoulder injuries...none of them are predictable, and neither is this one. If you have a crystal ball that can tell the future, let me know...

Are you being dense on purpose?

J

[cavebird]

They may have been able to sign Aiken, Nix, and Mac if Aiken took $5M. Or perhaps they really didnt want to offer more than $3M but went to $5M to avoid the Astros are awful discussions making the rounds.

If it was to get all three, that's a bit silly, especially since they had agreed to the higher amount before the physical. The bottom line was whether they wanted Aiken and Nix or the second overall pick next year. The monetary difference is just peanuts to an MLB team.

[cardboardbox]

The bottom line was whether they wanted Aiken and Nix or the second overall pick next year.

yes, I've stated this a few times already.

[Hornsby]

Are you being dense on purpose?

J

If you think so, then I take it as a point of personal pride that my case is sound...

[cardboardbox]

If you think so, then I take it as a point of personal pride that my case is sound...

that Aiken is going #1 in next years draft?

[james33]

What's ridiculous to me is how the conversation around Jeff has turned so much on its head that it's basically accepted that this view is true. I've had a lot of bosses in my day, and I've only had one other boss who cared as much about treating people kindly, fairly, and honestly as Jeff does. Not just the people who work for him, but everyone. But he also doesn't slag people in public, so when a player moves on and says untrue things about us, or agent who didn't get the offer he wanted from us for his player chalks it up in public to the cold, calculating, unfeeling robots in the Astros front office, people want to believe that narrative, and Jeff takes the high road and doesn't respond by bashing the player. I've never worked in an environment where people tried more to do right by each other than this one, and there is a huge emphasis on taking care of our players and empowering them. All that starts from the top. The idea that Jeff is aloof or cold in his dealings or doesn't care deeply about the players is complete and utter horseshit.

Good insight, thanks for posting this about Luhnow. I didn't know anything about him personally. I hope the Astros front office staff is talking with reporters on background, saying things like "Luhnow wants to take the high road so won't let me go on record with a quote, but he's a first class guy, this cold Astros organization just isn't true." Better yet, I hope some players agree with your insight and would do the same thing. Good luck.

[Hornsby]

that Aiken is going #1 in next years draft?

That nobody has a crystal ball to see what will happen in the future...

Aiken and camp are betting on his talent and track record to date, Houston is betting on ???. That I simply don't know...and I'm not sure that they do either.