2K24: Cleveland Guardians

[Ken]

How about Marsh and one of their pitching prospects for Clevinger?

Sure, and why doesn't Cleveland throw in Lindor too just for grins (since they are apparently giving away their team for nothing in this scenario)

[Gregg]

Sure, and why doesn't Cleveland throw in Lindor too just for grins (since they are apparently giving away their team for nothing in this scenario)

Marsh is their second best prospect according to MLB Prospect Watch 2019.

I would not be trading Adell. So I went with some quality and quantity.

[Ken]

Marsh is their second best prospect according to MLB Prospect Watch 2019.

And yet it's still a ridiculous notion IMO. It's not anywhere close to enough for Clevinger.

I would not be trading Adell. So I went with some quality and quantity.

This is like saying "I would not trade Mike Trout, so how about David Fletcher and a couple other guys instead?"

[Gregg]

And yet it's still a ridiculous notion IMO. It's not anywhere close to enough for Clevinger.



This is like saying "I would not trade Mike Trout, so how about David Fletcher and a couple other guys instead?"

Fair enough.

[Ken]

Let me add some data to the conversation.

Right now 1 WAR is worth approximately $9-10M. Clevinger's contract for 2020 is $4.5M. The last two years he's been worth ~4-5 WAR. So conservatively, lets put his 2020 value at $30M (which seems reasonable with Strasburg getting $35M annually). So his surplus value for 2020 alone will be ~$25M.

For the sake of argument lets assume he gets $10M and $15M in his next two arb years (which seems fair, Cole got $13.5 for arb3). If we can conservatively agree he's still at least a ~3WAR pitcher those years then his surplus value for '21 and '22 totals ~$30M.

So we are looking at around a $55M surplus value asset.

Brandon Marsh is a ~50FV prospect, he shows up near the back end of top 100 lists (if at all). And that's worth ~$25M.

Adell is a 65FV prospect which is worth closer to $80M fwiw.

That's vastly different. Marsh+ for Clevinger would be a joke. Adell... that sounds pretty reasonable actually. Although it will likely never happen.


Works referenced:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/02/prospect-valuation-much-top-prospects-worth-professional-baseball-teams/

https://tht.fangraphs.com/surplus-value-mlb-contracts-salary-cleveland-indians/

[Controller Jacobs]

The second they saw the mention of discussions about Clevinger with the Angels, both the Astros and Rangers made sure the Indians knew they would be willing to exceed any non-Adell package that the Angels offered. My source is common sense.

[madducks]

How about Tyler Glasnow & Austin Meadows for Clevinger. And throw in Shane Baz for grins. Oh wait never mind.

[chancellor]

Let me add some data to the conversation.

Right now 1 WAR is worth approximately $9-10M. Clevinger's contract for 2020 is $4.5M. The last two years he's been worth ~4-5 WAR. So conservatively, lets put his 2020 value at $30M (which seems reasonable with Strasburg getting $35M annually). So his surplus value for 2020 alone will be ~$25M.

For the sake of argument lets assume he gets $10M and $15M in his next two arb years (which seems fair, Cole got $13.5 for arb3). If we can conservatively agree he's still at least a ~3WAR pitcher those years then his surplus value for '21 and '22 totals ~$30M.

So we are looking at around a $55M surplus value asset.

Brandon Marsh is a ~50FV prospect, he shows up near the back end of top 100 lists (if at all). And that's worth ~$25M.

Adell is a 65FV prospect which is worth closer to $80M fwiw.

That's vastly different. Marsh+ for Clevinger would be a joke. Adell... that sounds pretty reasonable actually. Although it will likely never happen.


Works referenced:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/02/prospect-valuation-much-top-prospects-worth-professional-baseball-teams/

https://tht.fangraphs.com/surplus-va...eland-indians/

Wow...didn't realize a WAR had jumped that much in value.

And while I agree with your assessment that an Adell/Clevinger deal won't happen, if I were the Angels and could figure out a way to get a serviceable RP too, I'd be all over that deal.

[revo]

Emmanuel Clase, the "prize" of the Corey Kluber trade, is out 8-to-12 weeks with an upper back strain.

[onejayhawk]

Another back injury. Yikes.

I saw that Cleveland plans to use Jordan Luplow in the Indians outfield.

Right now, Oscar Mercado is the only guarantee. It’s early, but it seems like the Indians really want to keep Reyes in left and put Domingo Santana at DH. In that case, a way-too-early projection of the Opening Day outfield could be Mercado CF, Reyes LF and Jordan Luplow RF (especially if a lefty is on the mound).

I hope Santana gets enough OF play to retain his eligibility, but this means that DH is his, which is helpful to his chances of 600 PA.

J

[TranaGreg]

Another back injury. Yikes.

I saw that Cleveland plans to use Jordan Luplow in the Indians outfield.

Right now, Oscar Mercado is the only guarantee. It’s early, but it seems like the Indians really want to keep Reyes in left and put Domingo Santana at DH. In that case, a way-too-early projection of the Opening Day outfield could be Mercado CF, Reyes LF and Jordan Luplow RF (especially if a lefty is on the mound).

I hope Santana gets enough OF play to retain his eligibility, but this means that DH is his, which is helpful to his chances of 600 PA.

J

I find it a very confusing situation - I gotta think that they're gonna try to find a spot for DeShields as he was a big part of the Kluber trade, but I don't see where he'll get many ABs

[GwynnInTheHall]

They got reyes from the Padres--he could easily hit 50 bombs this season.

[Sour Masher]

They got reyes from the Padres--he could easily hit 50 bombs this season.

I like him a lot, but easily 50--he isn't juiced up Sammy Sosa. Fifty is lofty, unless they make the balls even tighter this year. Dude has serious power though. Assuming a normal ball, 35-40 seems doable. I gotta think after all the talk last year and the crazy power numbers league wide, the balls will at least be a bit closer to the norm this year.

[onejayhawk]

I find it a very confusing situation - I gotta think that they're gonna try to find a spot for DeShields as he was a big part of the Kluber trade, but I don't see where he'll get many ABs

I don't think he was a big part at all. He's a valuable late inning defensive sub and pinch runner, but no more than OF5. The big part of the trade has the back injury.

J

[GwynnInTheHall]

I like him a lot, but easily 50--he isn't juiced up Sammy Sosa. Fifty is lofty, unless they make the balls even tighter this year. Dude has serious power though. Assuming a normal ball, 35-40 seems doable. I gotta think after all the talk last year and the crazy power numbers league wide, the balls will at least be a bit closer to the norm this year.

I agree, but Reyes is Big papi reincarnate.