Originally posted by Gregg
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2K24: Cleveland Guardians
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Originally posted by Ken View PostSure, and why doesn't Cleveland throw in Lindor too just for grins (since they are apparently giving away their team for nothing in this scenario)
I would not be trading Adell. So I went with some quality and quantity.
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Originally posted by Gregg View PostMarsh is their second best prospect according to MLB Prospect Watch 2019.
Originally posted by Gregg View PostI would not be trading Adell. So I went with some quality and quantity.
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Let me add some data to the conversation.
Right now 1 WAR is worth approximately $9-10M. Clevinger's contract for 2020 is $4.5M. The last two years he's been worth ~4-5 WAR. So conservatively, lets put his 2020 value at $30M (which seems reasonable with Strasburg getting $35M annually). So his surplus value for 2020 alone will be ~$25M.
For the sake of argument lets assume he gets $10M and $15M in his next two arb years (which seems fair, Cole got $13.5 for arb3). If we can conservatively agree he's still at least a ~3WAR pitcher those years then his surplus value for '21 and '22 totals ~$30M.
So we are looking at around a $55M surplus value asset.
Brandon Marsh is a ~50FV prospect, he shows up near the back end of top 100 lists (if at all). And that's worth ~$25M.
Adell is a 65FV prospect which is worth closer to $80M fwiw.
That's vastly different. Marsh+ for Clevinger would be a joke. Adell... that sounds pretty reasonable actually. Although it will likely never happen.
Works referenced:
This off-season and spring training have seen a major upheaval in the number and type of coach that is being ...read more
Last edited by Ken; 01-06-2020, 11:09 AM.
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The second they saw the mention of discussions about Clevinger with the Angels, both the Astros and Rangers made sure the Indians knew they would be willing to exceed any non-Adell package that the Angels offered. My source is common sense.people called me an idiot for burning popcorn in the microwave, but i know the real truth. - nullnor
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Originally posted by Ken View PostLet me add some data to the conversation.
Right now 1 WAR is worth approximately $9-10M. Clevinger's contract for 2020 is $4.5M. The last two years he's been worth ~4-5 WAR. So conservatively, lets put his 2020 value at $30M (which seems reasonable with Strasburg getting $35M annually). So his surplus value for 2020 alone will be ~$25M.
For the sake of argument lets assume he gets $10M and $15M in his next two arb years (which seems fair, Cole got $13.5 for arb3). If we can conservatively agree he's still at least a ~3WAR pitcher those years then his surplus value for '21 and '22 totals ~$30M.
So we are looking at around a $55M surplus value asset.
Brandon Marsh is a ~50FV prospect, he shows up near the back end of top 100 lists (if at all). And that's worth ~$25M.
Adell is a 65FV prospect which is worth closer to $80M fwiw.
That's vastly different. Marsh+ for Clevinger would be a joke. Adell... that sounds pretty reasonable actually. Although it will likely never happen.
Works referenced:
This off-season and spring training have seen a major upheaval in the number and type of coach that is being ...read more
https://tht.fangraphs.com/surplus-va...eland-indians/
And while I agree with your assessment that an Adell/Clevinger deal won't happen, if I were the Angels and could figure out a way to get a serviceable RP too, I'd be all over that deal.I'm just here for the baseball.
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Another back injury. Yikes.
I saw that Cleveland plans to use Jordan Luplow in the Indians outfield.
Right now, Oscar Mercado is the only guarantee. It’s early, but it seems like the Indians really want to keep Reyes in left and put Domingo Santana at DH. In that case, a way-too-early projection of the Opening Day outfield could be Mercado CF, Reyes LF and Jordan Luplow RF (especially if a lefty is on the mound).
I hope Santana gets enough OF play to retain his eligibility, but this means that DH is his, which is helpful to his chances of 600 PA.
JAd Astra per Aspera
Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy
GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler
Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues
I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude
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Originally posted by onejayhawk View PostAnother back injury. Yikes.
I saw that Cleveland plans to use Jordan Luplow in the Indians outfield.
Right now, Oscar Mercado is the only guarantee. It’s early, but it seems like the Indians really want to keep Reyes in left and put Domingo Santana at DH. In that case, a way-too-early projection of the Opening Day outfield could be Mercado CF, Reyes LF and Jordan Luplow RF (especially if a lefty is on the mound).
I hope Santana gets enough OF play to retain his eligibility, but this means that DH is his, which is helpful to his chances of 600 PA.
JIt certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.
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They got reyes from the Padres--he could easily hit 50 bombs this season.If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
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Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View PostThey got reyes from the Padres--he could easily hit 50 bombs this season.
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Originally posted by TranaGreg View PostI find it a very confusing situation - I gotta think that they're gonna try to find a spot for DeShields as he was a big part of the Kluber trade, but I don't see where he'll get many ABs
JAd Astra per Aspera
Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy
GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler
Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues
I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostI like him a lot, but easily 50--he isn't juiced up Sammy Sosa. Fifty is lofty, unless they make the balls even tighter this year. Dude has serious power though. Assuming a normal ball, 35-40 seems doable. I gotta think after all the talk last year and the crazy power numbers league wide, the balls will at least be a bit closer to the norm this year.If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
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