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What fantasy baseball boils down to....

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
    It's a guessing game, that's what fantasy baseball is...whoever guesses best on the most players wins the championship...
    Are you talking about fantasy football? Or maybe a shallow H2H league? Because the higher level of skill and strategy involved in roto is the exact reason I prefer to play fantasy baseball. Granted, if you're playing with a bunch of sharks, maybe it does come more down to luck, simply because everyone's of the same talent level. But if it's a home roto league, there's no reason you shouldn't be able to give yourself a significant advantage by doing more research and building a higher skill level than your opponents.

    I really like the post above about maximizing your education and minimizing your guessing/risk. Great line of thinking.

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    • #17
      The main area where luck comes into play is injuries. I thought I had a great draft in my main league last year, but with 20+ DL trips, the team never had a chance.
      Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
      We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

      Comment

      • #18
        I got lucky 4 times in 6 years from 2002-07, before advanced SABRmetrics took such a hold on the general public.

        Since then, I have not gotten lucky once, oddly enough.
        finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
        own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
        won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

        SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
        RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
        C Stallings 2, Casali 1
        1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
        OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Erik View Post
          The main area where luck comes into play is injuries. I thought I had a great draft in my main league last year, but with 20+ DL trips, the team never had a chance.
          this is my team this year.
          "Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann

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          • #20
            My team has 16 wins....16......on pace for 48 wins...the ridiculous part is my SP's are:

            Hamels, Medlen, Bumgarner, Peavy, Gio, Anibal Sanchez..all pretty much ranked in the the top 30-35...

            I GUESS i should have figured these studs would provide such lousy stats....
            "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
              My team has 16 wins....16......on pace for 48 wins...the ridiculous part is my SP's are:

              Hamels, Medlen, Bumgarner, Peavy, Gio, Anibal Sanchez..all pretty much ranked in the the top 30-35...

              I GUESS i should have figured these studs would provide such lousy stats....
              Meh, I only liked 3 of those. I own one (Peavy) and wouldnt touch one (Gio).

              One was kept and two went for too much money.

              Comment

              • #22
                Originally posted by Tanner Bell View Post
                Are you talking about fantasy football? Or maybe a shallow H2H league? Because the higher level of skill and strategy involved in roto is the exact reason I prefer to play fantasy baseball. Granted, if you're playing with a bunch of sharks, maybe it does come more down to luck, simply because everyone's of the same talent level. But if it's a home roto league, there's no reason you shouldn't be able to give yourself a significant advantage by doing more research and building a higher skill level than your opponents.
                +1. Tanner, you should post here more often!

                Comment

                • #23
                  Originally posted by Tanner Bell View Post
                  Are you talking about fantasy football? Or maybe a shallow H2H league? Because the higher level of skill and strategy involved in roto is the exact reason I prefer to play fantasy baseball. Granted, if you're playing with a bunch of sharks, maybe it does come more down to luck, simply because everyone's of the same talent level. But if it's a home roto league, there's no reason you shouldn't be able to give yourself a significant advantage by doing more research and building a higher skill level than your opponents.

                  I really like the post above about maximizing your education and minimizing your guessing/risk. Great line of thinking.
                  I am in two leagues with Sharks (deep AL and NL 12 team leagues). I went in to test my skills not my guessing ability.

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                  • #24
                    Few would disagree that luck plays a role.

                    I could be wrong, but I don't believe anyone here at rotojunkie, or any tout at toutwars, was advocating spending more on Choo than Kemp pre-season, or more on David DeJesus than BJ Upton. Countless other examples, I'm sure - just picked two at one position in one league.

                    Anyone out there draft Kemp and BJ Upton, and are winning your league? I bet not.

                    And fess up, did you draft John Buck as your second catcher, and now are proudly in first in HR, and is that all skill?
                    Or did you take Kyle Kendrick in dollar days as your last starting pitcher, and now your ERA and WHIP are tops in the league, and is that all skill?

                    Comment

                    • #25
                      For the last 10 years (up until this year) I've been in a league with a bunch of casual friends. I won multiple times and only failed to cash once. I'm routinely in the bottom third in the two leagues where I play with people here on RJ. My guessing ability is the same in both... my level of perpetration and understanding of the nuances of the game vs. the competition is vastly different.
                      I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

                      Comment

                      • #26
                        excellent point, heyelander. Perhaps just like a pitcher's ERA, in one year, luck has a lot to do with whether we win a championship. But over the course of 10 years, we can prove that skill makes a bigger difference.

                        Comment

                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Tanner Bell View Post
                          Are you talking about fantasy football? Or maybe a shallow H2H league? Because the higher level of skill and strategy involved in roto is the exact reason I prefer to play fantasy baseball. Granted, if you're playing with a bunch of sharks, maybe it does come more down to luck, simply because everyone's of the same talent level. But if it's a home roto league, there's no reason you shouldn't be able to give yourself a significant advantage by doing more research and building a higher skill level than your opponents.

                          I really like the post above about maximizing your education and minimizing your guessing/risk. Great line of thinking.
                          My home league had a stretch of 7 different winners in 7 years from 2004-2010....only 1 repeat winner in 22 years...so it is a pretty competitive league...
                          "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                          Comment

                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Gregg View Post
                            Meh, I only liked 3 of those. I own one (Peavy) and wouldnt touch one (Gio).

                            One was kept and two went for too much money.
                            Pre season you wouldn't touch Gio?
                            "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                            Comment

                            • #29
                              Originally posted by james33 View Post
                              Few would disagree that luck plays a role.

                              I could be wrong, but I don't believe anyone here at rotojunkie, or any tout at toutwars, was advocating spending more on Choo than Kemp pre-season, or more on David DeJesus than BJ Upton. Countless other examples, I'm sure - just picked two at one position in one league.

                              Anyone out there draft Kemp and BJ Upton, and are winning your league? I bet not.

                              And fess up, did you draft John Buck as your second catcher, and now are proudly in first in HR, and is that all skill?
                              Or did you take Kyle Kendrick in dollar days as your last starting pitcher, and now your ERA and WHIP are tops in the league, and is that all skill?
                              Few here would agree that luck plays a significant role
                              "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                              Comment

                              • #30
                                Originally posted by james33 View Post
                                excellent point, heyelander. Perhaps just like a pitcher's ERA, in one year, luck has a lot to do with whether we win a championship. But over the course of 10 years, we can prove that skill makes a bigger difference.
                                True. In the last 7 years i have finished 3,1,3,2,4,9,1...i still feel more lucky than skillful..maybe i need to give myself more credit
                                "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                                Comment

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