Extend or Don't Extend - RJ Boxscore League

[Lucky]

It's a 15-team mixed 5x5.

I have a couple of keepers in their final year. I am very tempted to let their contracts expire, just taking maximum profit this year, but I'm not sure. What would you do?

Rajai Davis $1
Andrew Bailey $3

Davis seems a candidate for extension, but he's getting to the upper end for speedsters, age-wise.

Vince Coleman dropped off after 30. All Rickey's biggest years were before 30. Raj is 30 this year.

(Fun fact about Vince Coleman...in "A" ball, dude stole 145 bases in 113 games. That had to drive catchers crazy.)

Anyway, what says the board?

One more question...is there any way anyone would keep Rick Porcello at $7? I keep reading all these things about 2011 being a breakout year for him, but I just don't see it based upon his numbers. He was good in the minors, but in two partial major league seasons, he hasn't impressed. His K/BB numbers were good, but he gave up too many hits. Of course, he's only 22. But, do I keep him, try to get him cheaper at the auction, or just wait a couple of years to see if he will develop?

Thanks.

[Gregg]

I am a believer that one of the advantages of giving a 1 year raise to players like you have mentioned is that it makes their trade value open to the whole league. If you let them turn into a lame duck they are only valuable to the teams that are in contention.

Now on to the actual players.

With Davis he certainly should get an extension to $6 bucks. Barring injury he is not going to drop off (in one year )below earning at least 3X's his cost.

Same with Bailey.

[Lucky]

That's a really good point about trade value. It's probably especially good in a league like this keeper league, where dump trading is endemic.

I guess the question is whether the opportunity to trade him for something badly needed during the season, or whether that $5 will benefit me more in the auction. I'd probably waste the extra money, so I'll probably go with the extension.

[Gregg]

If you are only going into the auction with $75 bucks, $5 could mean alot. $110 not so much. I can tell you that if Davis were in my auction he would go for big bucks, 20 plus.

[Lucky]

I'll be going in with $199, not counting extensions.

[Weapon1]

Its a 15-team mixed league. Davis has no guarantee to a starting job beyond this year, and w/o a starting job he won't be worth 6, so I wouldn't extend him. Bailey is more of an injury question than a role question. I'd try to project how many closers would be available next year in deciding whether to extend, including whether closers who come out of nowhere, such as Axford, get picked up as free agents at keeper prices.

[Lucky]

Good points. As for Davis, he doesn't have the on-base skills to assure him a full-time role, since he just refuses to take a walk. As for Bailey, I think there will be some closers available next year, so I think it would be better to take the profit on him now.

[joncarlos]

Do the Jays have any CF candidates in the pipeline? I would lean towards extending Davis. Even as a 4th OF next year (worst case scenario) he should earn $6 with his wheels. I like Bailey a lot and would normally lean towards extending him, but if your league doesn't pay for saves or you think there will be a lot available, I can see passing.

And I think I'd pass on Porcello. His K rate is just way too low.

[Moonlight J]

Do the Jays have any CF candidates in the pipeline? I would lean towards extending Davis. Even as a 4th OF next year (worst case scenario) he should earn $6 with his wheels. I like Bailey a lot and would normally lean towards extending him, but if your league doesn't pay for saves or you think there will be a lot available, I can see passing.

And I think I'd pass on Porcello. His K rate is just way too low.

No, not worth a damn. Anthony Gose is there....80 speed but a 20 bat.

[wombat104]

I would extend Davis, not Bailey. You should be able to get Porcello cheaper at auction, if you want him, as JF said that K rate is way low and as a ground ball pitcher up the middle he is going to have Peralta and Guillen (if healthy) or Sizemore.

[joncarlos]

No, not worth a damn. Anthony Gose is there....80 speed but a 20 bat.

So the guy with the 75 speed and 30 bat is safe for a while?

[Hammer]

I wouldnt extend either. Enjoy the profits.

[hunteroeffner]

Blue Jays Manager John Farrell has a huge man crush on Rajal Davis and the steal are there, BUT I always cringe at the idea of keeping a fourth outfielder who could lose his job to a slump and a scrub in the free agency pool.

[Lucky]

Anybody have any last minute thoughts on this, before I decide whether to let his contract expire this year or extend him to $6 and have him for 2012? (Or at least trade him to someone who would want to have him for 2012.)

[Gregg]

I am standing by my original post.