Who will be the worst team in Baseball this year?

[rhd]

The Vegas win total over/unders are out now:
http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/User...aspx?id=359608

Are we going to do our annual "over/under prediction" thread?

[joncarlos]

Are we going to do our annual "over/under prediction" thread?

Yeah, but I figured we could let the lines settle a little bit before we did it. Give it a week or two.

[rhd]

Yeah, but I figured we could let the lines settle a little bit before we did it. Give it a week or two.

Thanx. Upon first glance, the O's line of 76.5 really jumps out. They won 93 games last year. Some of the improvement was fortunate circumstance but about half of it was real. And Bundy will be up soon. They are picked to finish last in the AL East, behind even Boston who is at 77.5 after winning only 69 last year. Those 2 teams would be on my list rt now. Along w the Cubs who have a line of 72 after winning 61 last year and doing nothing to improve themselves.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Funny, the Cubs line strikes me as being too low. I'm not sure what you mean about doing nothing to improve themselves. They have been one of the most active teams in free agency and have done a really good job of hitting the bargain-bin sweet spot without dipping too much into the stagnant, these-guys-are-over-the-hill-and-crappy end of the pool.

[Ryno84MVP]

Funny, the Cubs line strikes me as being too low. I'm not sure what you mean about doing nothing to improve themselves. They have been one of the most active teams in free agency and have done a really good job of hitting the bargain-bin sweet spot without dipping too much into the stagnant, these-guys-are-over-the-hill-and-crappy end of the pool.

I would agree with this. I think that the Scott Baker signing could turnout to be a steal and the Schierholtz/Hairston platoon in RF could be very good. The over/under is at 72. I'm not sure if they can get to .500, but 75-78 is attainable (especially if they don't sell-off Garza and Soriano at mid-season).

[Hornsby]

I would agree with this. I think that the Scott Baker signing could turnout to be a steal and the Schierholtz/Hairston platoon in RF could be very good. The over/under is at 72. I'm not sure if they can get to .500, but 75-78 is attainable (especially if they don't sell-off Garza and Soriano at mid-season).

Trust me, as a Twins watcher for many years, the Scott Baker signing will NOT turn out to be a steal. For every good performance that he gives you, he'll piss you off/break your heart for the next 2. But I do think that the Cubs are going to be a close to .500 team, and the future looks very good.

[rhd]

Funny, the Cubs line strikes me as being too low. I'm not sure what you mean about doing nothing to improve themselves. They have been one of the most active teams in free agency and have done a really good job of hitting the bargain-bin sweet spot without dipping too much into the stagnant, these-guys-are-over-the-hill-and-crappy end of the pool.

OK, Edwin Jackson improves the rotation and Fujikawa improves the bullpen. Not enough improvement to win 11 more games. And they will be dumping Soriano at some point. The moves they're making are paving the way for future improvements, but that wont show up in 2013.

[Hornsby]

OK, Edwin Jackson improves the rotation and Fujikawa improves the bullpen. Not enough improvement to win 11 more games. And they will be dumping Soriano at some point. The moves their making are paving the way for future improvements, but that wont show up in 2013.

I think that Rizzo and Castro improving simply because of experience is going to move the needle a few ticks, and I think that the pitching is actually going to be fairly good. Despite my slagging of Baker, he is a talent, and maybe he just needs a change of scenery and someone to believe in him.

[cavebird]

I would agree with this. I think that the Scott Baker signing could turnout to be a steal and the Schierholtz/Hairston platoon in RF could be very good. The over/under is at 72. I'm not sure if they can get to .500, but 75-78 is attainable (especially if they don't sell-off Garza and Soriano at mid-season).

I think 75-78 could be attainable except for the 5-8 games that are lost due to Carlos Marmol and fastballs that only vaguely head in the direction of home plate before he is put into a lower leverage role to clear his head out again. Then again, I don't know if 72 is too low. The back of the rotation is questionable, and I don't see the Cubs getting production above league average at the plate from any position except shortstop. Sure, Ian Stewart could be healed and good, Rizzo could breakout, Soriano could have a great season, etc., but way too many of those things have to happen for the Cubs to get close to .500.

EDIT: As for Baker, he had Tommy John surgery last April, so I wouldn't expect him to throw that many innings this year. However, all of this being said, I doubt the Cubs have the worst record in baseball; they're not good, but they're not that bad. A rash of injuries, however, and well, they are in the range that this could drop them to worst, but you could say that about any number of teams.

[Gregg]

I think 75-78 could be attainable except for the 5-8 games that are lost due to Carlos Marmol and fastballs that only vaguely head in the direction of home plate before he is put into a lower leverage role to clear his head out again. Then again, I don't know if 72 is too low. The back of the rotation is questionable, and I don't see the Cubs getting production above league average at the plate from any position except shortstop. Sure, Ian Stewart could be healed and good, Rizzo could breakout, Soriano could have a great season, etc., but way too many of those things have to happen for the Cubs to get close to .500.

EDIT: As for Baker, he had Tommy John surgery last April, so I wouldn't expect him to throw that many innings this year. However, all of this being said, I doubt the Cubs have the worst record in baseball; they're not good, but they're not that bad. A rash of injuries, however, and well, they are in the range that this could drop them to worst, but you could say that about any number of teams.

As a Cubs fan I agree with your statement.

I do not expect Soriano or Garza to finish the season in Cubs uniforms. I have not been very happy with the off season moves. There are a few bright spots on their pitching staff, but it certainly does not look like championship pitching in the making.

I doubt that this team gets close to .500. If somehow it would over achieve and do it I am not so sure that would be a good thing moving forward.

[cavebird]

As a Cubs fan I agree with your statement.

I do not expect Soriano or Garza to finish the season in Cubs uniforms. I have not been very happy with the off season moves. There are a few bright spots on their pitching staff, but it certainly does not look like championship pitching in the making.

I doubt that this team gets close to .500. If somehow it would over achieve and do it I am not so sure that would be a good thing moving forward.

I follow your thinking except the part about not being happy with the offseason moves. They have tried to move the vets for prospects, but clearly haven't been successful, probably because Soriano's contract is just too much. The moves that have made have either been: guys who will help them a little for now but won't block anyone long term or reclamation projects like Ian Stewart. Well, there is also Edwin Jackson, but given that the Cubs are a large payroll team, I don't see that as being an albatross, and he's young enough he could still help when the Cubs are ready to compete. I don't see these moves hurting the team, and a reclamation project could always pay off, although this is not likely. Pretty much the Cubs offseason has been neutral (or if you are a fan, it would be fair to call it "meh"), but I don't think it has been bad. Then again, if you look what a team in a similar situation like the Astros has done, I can see being annoyed, because they seem to be rebuilding more rebustly and have gotten better reclamation projects, etc.

[rhd]

As a Cubs fan I agree with your statement.

I do not expect Soriano or Garza to finish the season in Cubs uniforms. I have not been very happy with the off season moves. There are a few bright spots on their pitching staff, but it certainly does not look like championship pitching in the making.

I doubt that this team gets close to .500. If somehow it would over achieve and do it I am not so sure that would be a good thing moving forward.

And dont forget that Dempster had an unbelievable first half for them last year and he's no longer there. Schierholtz and Hairston may make a nice platoon but basically they replace LaHair's production.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Pretty much the Cubs offseason has been neutral (or if you are a fan, it would be fair to call it "meh"), but I don't think it has been bad. Then again, if you look what a team in a similar situation like the Astros has done, I can see being annoyed, because they seem to be rebuilding more rebustly and have gotten better reclamation projects, etc.

It's fun to hear that because I hear a lot from Astros fans about how we should have done what the Cubs did this offseason.

[cavebird]

It's fun to hear that because I hear a lot from Astros fans about how we should have done what the Cubs did this offseason.

I have a feeling that there is a huge difference in opinion on these types of matters between high information baseball fans and lower information baseball fans.

[heyelander]

It's fun to hear that because I hear a lot from Astros fans about how we should have done what the Cubs did this offseason.

but to be truthful, how much faith can you put in fans that choose to root for the Astros?