Your 2013 RJ bad offer thread.

[Mithrandir]

I have Trout for $6 this year and $11 in 2014 with a $300 draft day budget.

I was offered:

Hosmer $6 in 2013 and $11 in 2014
Utley $10 in 2013
Brett Anderson $1 in 2013 and $6 in 2014

Thoughts? I thought it was pretty weak, but like most Trout owners in a keeper league I tend to overvalue his worth.

(I won't embarrass the owner who made the offer, but he frequents this website )

[Gregg]

I have Trout for $6 this year and $11 in 2014 with a $300 draft day budget.

I was offered:

Hosmer $6 in 2013 and $11 in 2014
Utley $10 in 2013
Brett Anderson $1 in 2013 and $6 in 2014

Thoughts? I thought it was pretty weak, but like most Trout owners in a keeper league I tend to overvalue his worth.

(I won't embarrass the owner who made the offer, but he frequents this website )

If I had Trout at that price there is pretty much no offer I would consider. It doesn't have to be unfair, just say no.

[Gregg]

Whether you like or dislike the Pierre offer the discussion here should prove that it is not a ridiculous offer. The opinion of reasonable men can differ.

First let me say thank you to everyone who chimmed in on this. I still think it is a terrible offer, but mgwiz is correct that this discussion has made me temper my thoughts about this offer. The guy who made the offer is a good player and we have made a bunch of trades. This one seemed to me to be so far out that it made no sense. So I appreciate the input.

[BigJonEmpire]

But you're not taking the offer based on future value, but based on what you do with the extra 16 dollars. In my experience, 17 dollars will buy you in a 5x5 keeper league, for instance, a lower tier closer, like a Grilli, as opposed to filling your last pitching slot with a flyer you hope will hit.

But you won't replace the 25-30 homers and approx 80 RBI without spending a lot more than that 17 in a keeper league so unless the key to victory is an extra 20 steals it is still not a good offer.

[Weapon1]

But you won't replace the 25-30 homers and approx 80 RBI without spending a lot more than that 17 in a keeper league so unless the key to victory is an extra 20 steals it is still not a good offer.

5 dollars spread to upgrade 3 hitters each will get you half the homers and two thirds the RBI, so now we are down to comparing the value of 20 SB v. a dozen or so HR and 25 to 30 RBI.

[Lucky]

No, I didn't make the offer, and I don't think I would take it if I had Heyward. But I would look at it carefully before saying no.

In 2011, Pierre had 50 ribbies. Heyward's high is 82. I wouldn't bet on an 80-rbi difference, even if one player is waxing while the other is waning.

I don't think it is likely that they will have similar batting averages. I think Heyward is likely to hit around .265 to .270, while Pierre could easily top that by 25 points or more. That could mean more than a point in team average. And you can't totally discount the idea that Pierre will toss in 40 to 50 bags. He's done it before, whereas we are projecting what Heyward could, but not yet has, done.

I really like that $4 price tag, which could make Pierre trade bait if needed.

There are a lot of arguments one could make each way, based upon age, past performance, potential, relative prices, contract age, etc.

[BigJonEmpire]

No, I didn't make the offer, and I don't think I would take it if I had Heyward. But I would look at it carefully before saying no.

In 2011, Pierre had 50 ribbies. Heyward's high is 82. I wouldn't bet on an 80-rbi difference, even if one player is waxing while the other is waning.

I don't think it is likely that they will have similar batting averages. I think Heyward is likely to hit around .265 to .270, while Pierre could easily top that by 25 points or more. That could mean more than a point in team average. And you can't totally discount the idea that Pierre will toss in 40 to 50 bags. He's done it before, whereas we are projecting what Heyward could, but not yet has, done.

I really like that $4 price tag, which could make Pierre trade bait if needed.

There are a lot of arguments one could make each way, based upon age, past performance, potential, relative prices, contract age, etc.

A couple of points - Heyward has done his damage hitting down in the order so far.; This season he is expected to have a spot in the heart of the order. His RBI totals should go up a bit. While Pierre hitting as he does in a weak Marlins lineup is not likely to get many RBI.

Heyward's k-rate went up this year but he has demonstrated that he has a good sense of the strikezone in the past. This season he needs to get back to his older approach. I think he will. His batting average will go way up.

[cavebird]

A couple of points - Heyward has done his damage hitting down in the order so far.; This season he is expected to have a spot in the heart of the order. His RBI totals should go up a bit. While Pierre hitting as he does in a weak Marlins lineup is not likely to get many RBI.

Heyward's k-rate went up this year but he has demonstrated that he has a good sense of the strikezone in the past. This season he needs to get back to his older approach. I think he will. His batting average will go way up.

Heyward has 1730 plate appearances in his career. 1096 of those plate appearances were batting from the second or third spot in the batting order. He'll likely bat second this year with Justin Upton hitting third. He should be fine, but don't expect an increase due to batting order position.

[BigJonEmpire]

Heyward has 1730 plate appearances in his career. 1096 of those plate appearances were batting from the second or third spot in the batting order. He'll likely bat second this year with Justin Upton hitting third. He should be fine, but don't expect an increase due to batting order position.

He was down in the order until the very end of June in 2012, so I think it counts.

[cavebird]

He was down in the order until the very end of June in 2012, so I think it counts.

He was usually batting sixth when he wasn't second or third, hitting behind Uggla (who was getting tons of walks early last year), Chipper, McCann and Freeman. I think that was a better RBI spot than second. Runs is a totally different story. But batting second he'll be hitting behind Simmons, the pitcher, and the third base platoon or Laird (until McCann is back). He'll get more AB's, hopefully be more OBP oriented and maybe steal more often, but I don't see extra RBI in that situation.

EDIT: I think that the higher batting order position will help overall---where he was batting lower I think the walks went down because he had nothing behind him. That being said, looking at his splits from last year, his first half and second half were more or less identical despite the change in batting order position. The Braves lineup is so deep that it just may not matter.

[Hornsby]

No, I didn't make the offer, and I don't think I would take it if I had Heyward. But I would look at it carefully before saying no.

In 2011, Pierre had 50 ribbies. Heyward's high is 82. I wouldn't bet on an 80-rbi difference, even if one player is waxing while the other is waning.

I don't think it is likely that they will have similar batting averages. I think Heyward is likely to hit around .265 to .270, while Pierre could easily top that by 25 points or more. That could mean more than a point in team average. And you can't totally discount the idea that Pierre will toss in 40 to 50 bags. He's done it before, whereas we are projecting what Heyward could, but not yet has, done.

I really like that $4 price tag, which could make Pierre trade bait if needed.

There are a lot of arguments one could make each way, based upon age, past performance, potential, relative prices, contract age, etc.

Here's the issue as I see it...you're essentially projecting maximum stats for Pierre and minimum stats for Heyward. Pierre has stolen more than 40 bags only once in the last 5 seasons, and has had 50 or more RBI only once in the last ELEVEN years, last year he had 25. So saying that the 2 players are going to be anywhere within 40 RBI of eachother is terribly wrong, IMO. And last year Pierre had 37 steals, and Heyward had 21...add in the fact that Pierre is 35 and Heyward is 23 and it makes it no contest, IMO.

I guess that I should also say that I assume that Gregg is going for it this season, and not building for the future. Either way, Heyward is a much more attractive trade chip to a team that's gunning for a title.

[madducks]

I have Trout for $6 this year and $11 in 2014 with a $300 draft day budget.

I was offered:

Hosmer $6 in 2013 and $11 in 2014
Utley $10 in 2013
Brett Anderson $1 in 2013 and $6 in 2014

Thoughts? I thought it was pretty weak, but like most Trout owners in a keeper league I tend to overvalue his worth.

(I won't embarrass the owner who made the offer, but he frequents this website )

There's no shame in my game. I thought it was a decent offer. Three good keepers for a great one. I didn't think you would go for it but figured it was worth a try. Can't blame a guy for trying.

I bet that a lot of people would have traded Trout for Hosmer straight up last winter.

[Mithrandir]

There's no shame in my game. I thought it was a decent offer. Three good keepers for a great one. I didn't think you would go for it but figured it was worth a try. Can't blame a guy for trying.

I bet that a lot of people would have traded Trout for Hosmer straight up last winter.

Just giving you some crap !! But truthfully..right now...that offer stinks for Trout. Hosmer may be really good or he may be mediocre. Utley is old and creaky. And while i like Anderson, he's had arm problems every year.

I bet you would be soooo wrong about Hosmer for Trout. Trout was rated the number one or two prospect at that time.

[whalewang]

My latest crap that I received (9 team NL-only keeper league):
His $59 Tulo + $10 Wade Miley for my $15 Heyward + a minor leaguer

Tulo is not keepable at that price and Miley has marginal value at best (I really don't know if I'd keep him if he was on my roster) for a fantastic keeper in Heyward. I declined without comment or counter.

[DJBeasties]

my latest crap that i received (9 team nl-only keeper league):
His $59 tulo + $10 wade miley for my $15 heyward + a minor leaguer

tulo is not keepable at that price and miley has marginal value at best (i really don't know if i'd keep him if he was on my roster) for a fantastic keeper in heyward. I declined without comment or counter.

ugh. Lol