Official "Panic Button" Thread

[Sour Masher]

nope, Panic Meter remains at 1

I think there may be some differences in how you and revo define panic. I assume revo is talking about just this year, a redraft panic rating. Using the criteria, is your panic meter still 1, just for this year, and if so, at want point do you think the growing pains will stop? Or is your contention he has already figured it out and his approach is already where it needs to be and he just needs his luck to change?

Long term, I'm sure almost all agree Langford will be a star, and he is so talented, maybe it all clicks for him this year (or his luck improves, if you think he is already clicking and just getting unlucky), but if that doesn't happen until after the AS break, let's say, than isn't it fair to raise the panic rating for those looking for ROS production? Long term, it is pretty silly to be panicking about a guy with his absurdly good track record and obvious skills, but lots of future HOFers struggled to produce their first season in the majors. I'm not sure I'd have a panic rating of 1 on any first year player who is struggling. But if there are specific things you are seeing that indicate a strong turn around is imminent, getting in more detail it may be helpful to those in redrafts. In a keeper league like mine, Langford is still, rightfully, absolutely untouchable. I wish I could use this slow start to nab him, but his owner won't go for it.

[revo]

I think there may be some differences in how you and revo define panic. I assume revo is talking about just this year, a redraft panic rating. Using the criteria, is your panic meter still 1, just for this year, and if so, at want point do you think the growing pains will stop? Or is your contention he has already figured it out and his approach is already where it needs to be and he just needs his luck to change?

Long term, I'm sure almost all agree Langford will be a star, and he is so talented, maybe it all clicks for him this year (or his luck improves, if you think he is already clicking and just getting unlucky), but if that doesn't happen until after the AS break, let's say, than isn't it fair to raise the panic rating for those looking for ROS production? Long term, it is pretty silly to be panicking about a guy with his absurdly good track record and obvious skills, but lots of future HOFers struggled to produce their first season in the majors. I'm not sure I'd have a panic rating of 1 on any first year player who is struggling. But if there are specific things you are seeing that indicate a strong turn around is imminent, getting in more detail it may be helpful to those in redrafts. In a keeper league like mine, Langford is still, rightfully, absolutely untouchable. I wish I could use this slow start to nab him, but his owner won't go for it.

Yup. My panic meter is based on this season only in redrafts and the:
a) cost to acquire; and,
b) expectations to be met.

As a Langford owner in a redfraft, I am completely regretting my pick of him as the overall expectations have sunk. Perhaps I got caught up in the spring training hysteria, but unless he starts to show some of that magic, I would say the likelihood of him coming near his pre-season ADP value and projections are getting slimmer by the day.

In fact, his latest projections from The Bat on FanGraphs are now down to .246/.315/.385 with a measly 10 HRs & 46 RBIs. BBHQ has him much better than that, .267/.361/.444 with 15 HRs, 15 SBs, 52 Runs and 55 RBIs, but I haven't trusted their projections since Shandler left. His late-March ADP was 72. If he comes closer to the BBHQ projections, I'd take it. If it's The Bat projections, ugh.

[Sour Masher]

In fact, his latest projections from The Bat on FanGraphs are now down to .246/.315/.385 with a measly 10 HRs & 46 RBIs. BBHQ has him much better than that, .267/.361/.444 with 15 HRs, 15 SBs, 52 Runs and 55 RBIs, but I haven't trusted their projections since Shandler left. His late-March ADP was 72. If he comes closer to the BBHQ projections, I'd take it. If it's The Bat projections, ugh.

Yeah, based on his ADP, even BBHQ's projections are a disappointment. I know there have been some notable exceptions in recent years, but most rookies don't come out the gate being worthy of a top 150 pick, except some players who come from other professional leagues, specifically players from Japan, where the level of play is a lot closer to the majors than college and even the minors.

[Ken]

Yeah, based on his ADP, even BBHQ's projections are a disappointment. I know there have been some notable exceptions in recent years, but most rookies don't come out the gate being worthy of a top 150 pick, except some players who come from other professional leagues, specifically players from Japan, where the level of play is a lot closer to the majors than college and even the minors.

To clarify my comments below, much of it is in jest after Revo's reply where he led with "He's been swinging at balls outside the strike zone". From watching him regularly, I completely disagree, that's not his problem. In fact he's a little too passive. His O-Swing% is 2% below mlb average. His contact % is 5% above league average. His swinging strike rate is 3% below league average. He swings 4% less than league average.

So I don't really even know how to reply to a comment that someone is panicked after watching him him swinging too much outside the zone. I can just say "no he's not nananabooboo", or I can say Panic Meter 1 I guess.

His approach looks great. He's getting a 2.9% HR/FB rate. I'm not at all worried.

Panicking on Wyatt Langford seems silly.

Then again, I don't think it was wise to draft him top 100, as you've pointed out here correctly. So it seems many of the comments are regrets over bad choices, not panic over how a player is playing. In that case I have no context on putting a panic number on someone else's bad choices so the whole thing is a bit silly isn't it?

[revo]

Henry Davis - another spring training darling off to a slow start. .182/.288/.236 line. Probably droppable in all but the deepest of leagues. Could rebound, but to what? We have no idea what he is. Panic Level - 7.

Demoted to AAA today. The Panic Meter claims another victim.

[Sour Masher]

Demoted to AAA today. The Panic Meter claims another victim.

He is an amusing case in our league. There was an unwarranted amount of hype for him among 3 of our owners, who kept trading him back and forth all off season. I even got him for a minute, just to flip him. I think he set the record for most times dealt in one offseason, but most of it I think was just continuing the absurdity of it, especially because it was annoying the hell out of another owner who kept expressing his indignation that a player of his caliber in a 14 team mixed league kept getting moved. That owner, of course, just posted this new in the league WhatsApp.

[DJRadar]

Basically anyone on my squad it's time to panic

[The Feral Slasher]

Has anyone mentioned Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. ? What's up with him ?

.231

.336

.347

3 HR, 11 R, 11 RBI, no steals. I was hoping my trip to Toronto would get him on track, but alas, that was not to be.

He seemed to be an almost generational talent when he came up, had an amazing 2021 season at the age of 22, and then...just seemed to fall apart. Really hard to figure out what is going on. Panic meter 8 ?

[The Feral Slasher]

Has anyone mentioned Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. ? What's up with him ?

.231

.336

.347

3 HR, 11 R, 11 RBI, no steals. I was hoping my trip to Toronto would get him on track, but alas, that was not to be.

He seemed to be an almost generational talent when he came up, had an amazing 2021 season at the age of 22, and then...just seemed to fall apart. Really hard to figure out what is going on. Panic meter 8 ?

No column headings, but none needed, just sadness for Vlad owners

2021	TOR	MLB	22	161	698	48	123	111	4	12.3%	15.8%	.290	.313	.311	.401	.601	.419	.421	166	-1.4	54.8	-15.6	6.3
2022	TOR	MLB	23	160	706	32	90	97	8	8.2%	16.4%	.205	.289	.274	.339	.480	.351	.351	133	-1.0	24.8	-15.4	3.3
2023	TOR	MLB	24	156	682	26	78	94	5	9.8%	14.7%	.179	.277	.264	.345	.444	.340	.378	118	-4.2	10.5	-20.6	1.3
2024	TOR	MLB	25	32	140	3	11	11	0	12.9%	20.7%	.116	.281	.231	.336	.347	.314	.365	104	-1.3	-0.6	-2.3	0.

[revo]

I largely stayed away from Vlad this year. It's looking more and more like 2021 was the outlier and somewhere between '22 and '23 is more the baseline -- which is perfectly fine, but not at his draft cost when everyone is expecting '21.

[revo]

Christian Encarnacion-Strand - .182/.188./312. Far more concerning is his gruesome 1 BB and 24 Ks in 77 ABs. If the Reds had the depth they did before their spate of injuries, I'm pretty sure he'd be back at AAA. They could move Steer to 1B and use Fairchild more, but that's not ideal. Mike Ford is playing well at AAA. I could see the Reds sending him down if he doesn't turn things around soon. Panic Level -- 9.

Gavin Lux - has been horrific in a tremendous Dodger lineup. They were already so concerned about his defense that they moved him to 2B, and now his putrid .152/.206/.170 line isn't doing him any favors. Panic Level - 9.

Nolan Schanuel - .167/.292/.222. Has one extra base hit this season. No longer plays vs. LHPs. Miguel Sano is hitting well. Schanuel was fast-tracked to the majors, not sure if it's worked out as hoped. Panic Level - 10.

Whit Merrifield - I get it, he's old. But I thought he would still be playing 3 to 4 out of every 5 games in a utility role. Now he only plays vs LHPs, and not very well mind you. His SBs have dried up because, well, you can't steal 1st. Panic Level - 10.

Updates:

Encarnacion-Strand has continued to stink up the joint. Panic Meter remains at 9.

Lux no longer plays vs. LHPs, which might not be bad for his averages (.280/.333/.320 the last 14 days) but doesn't help his fantasy prospects. Panic Meter remains at 9.

Schanuel has gone on a tear of late -- .357/.400/.524 the last two weeks. With Trout and Rendon out combined with his hot streak, he's in no danger of losing any playing time. Panic Meter drops to 4.

Whit Merrifield just isn't playing enough to be rostered in all but the deepest fantasy leagues and NFBC formats, where you're stuck with his rotting carcass. He's only shown his face in 2 of the last 7 games. Completely droppable in any format. Panic Meter removed, no longer relevant.

[revo]

New Entries:

Lars Nootbaar - .174/.278/.290 on the year. It's a good thing the Cards' OF is bereft of talent, but with Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman returning within the next few weeks, time is of the essence for Nootbaar. Panic Meter - 5.

Yandy Diaz - after a breakout '23, he's off to a mighty slow start: .211/.279/.276 with just 1 HR. Most would write this off, but there's some troubling signs under the hood -- his BB% is down by nearly 50% from '22, and his EV is down 2 mph from last year. His barrel rate is also at a career low. Probably nothing to worry about, but I'm sure some Yandy owners are starting to get hot under the collar. Panic Meter - 3.

Spencer Torkelson - what is going on here? After a 31 HR breakout campaign, he doesn't have a HR yet and is hitting .212/.282/.288 on the season. I'm sure the Tigers will let him ride this through, but this isn't what his owners signed up for. Panic Meter - 8.

Ezequiel Duran - Had a nice season last year which led many to draft him as a super utility type, but the guy doesn't even play anymore -- just 4 ABs since April 26. Pull the ripcord. Panic Meter - not relevant.

[Pauly]

New Entries:

Yandy Diaz - after a breakout '23, he's off to a mighty slow start: .211/.279/.276 with just 1 HR. Most would write this off, but there's some troubling signs under the hood -- his BB% is down by nearly 50% from '22, and his EV is down 2 mph from last year. His barrel rate is also at a career low. Probably nothing to worry about, but I'm sure some Yandy owners are starting to get hot under the collar. Panic Meter - 3.

Insane .255 BABIP for a career .322 BABIP guy. Buy low while you can.

[madducks]

Encarnacion-Strand has continued to stink up the joint. Panic Meter remains at 9.

Out of all of the prior mentioned players, CES is the one who stands out to me as a great buy-low opportunity. There is profit to be made from the panic of others.

[revo]

Will Benson - last 2 weeks, 44 ABs, 1 BB, 21 Ks, wowza. Don't know who they have who can replace him, but the Panic Meter is at 8.