I made a post a while back responding to an article that predicted that, due to the new rule changes, not only would SB totals be up this year, they would be way up. I forget the percentage rise the article suggested but IIRC it was at least 50% or higher. Well, it's not quite that big an increase but it's still pretty big. About 13.62% of the 162-game season has been played so far, or about 1/7.34 of the games. So multiplying the current MLB stats by 7.34 should give close to the projected end-of-season figures:
2022: 2486 SB
2023: 3340 SB (projected based on 455 current SB) - 34.35% increase
The SB success rate has increased dramatically also, which you also would expect:
2022: 3297 SBA, so 2486/3297 = 75.4% success rate
2023: 572 SBA, so 455/572 = 79.5% success rate
I would not expect the MLB BA to change much, and it seems pretty similar:
2022: .243
2023: .245
But April offense usually is depressed and IIRC the figure for April last year was somewhat lower, (like .238?). So this may actually be a bigger change than expected.
I would not have expected the HR rate to change significantly either, but note:
2022: 5215 HR
2023: 5498 HR (projected based on 749 current HR) - 5.43% increase
2022: 2486 SB
2023: 3340 SB (projected based on 455 current SB) - 34.35% increase
The SB success rate has increased dramatically also, which you also would expect:
2022: 3297 SBA, so 2486/3297 = 75.4% success rate
2023: 572 SBA, so 455/572 = 79.5% success rate
I would not expect the MLB BA to change much, and it seems pretty similar:
2022: .243
2023: .245
But April offense usually is depressed and IIRC the figure for April last year was somewhat lower, (like .238?). So this may actually be a bigger change than expected.
I would not have expected the HR rate to change significantly either, but note:
2022: 5215 HR
2023: 5498 HR (projected based on 749 current HR) - 5.43% increase
Comment