Early stats on SB totals

[rhd]

I made a post a while back responding to an article that predicted that, due to the new rule changes, not only would SB totals be up this year, they would be way up. I forget the percentage rise the article suggested but IIRC it was at least 50% or higher. Well, it's not quite that big an increase but it's still pretty big. About 13.62% of the 162-game season has been played so far, or about 1/7.34 of the games. So multiplying the current MLB stats by 7.34 should give close to the projected end-of-season figures:

2022: 2486 SB
2023: 3340 SB (projected based on 455 current SB) - 34.35% increase

The SB success rate has increased dramatically also, which you also would expect:

2022: 3297 SBA, so 2486/3297 = 75.4% success rate
2023: 572 SBA, so 455/572 = 79.5% success rate

I would not expect the MLB BA to change much, and it seems pretty similar:

2022: .243
2023: .245
But April offense usually is depressed and IIRC the figure for April last year was somewhat lower, (like .238?). So this may actually be a bigger change than expected.

I would not have expected the HR rate to change significantly either, but note:

2022: 5215 HR
2023: 5498 HR (projected based on 749 current HR) - 5.43% increase

[harmon]

I made a post a while back responding to an article that predicted that, due to the new rule changes, not only would SB totals be up this year, they would be way up. I forget the percentage rise the article suggested but IIRC it was at least 50% or higher. Well, it's not quite that big an increase but it's still pretty big. About 13.62% of the 162-game season has been played so far, or about 1/7.34 of the games. So multiplying the current MLB stats by 7.34 should give close to the projected end-of-season figures:

2022: 2486 SB
2023: 3340 SB (projected based on 455 current SB) - 34.35% increase

The SB success rate has increased dramatically also, which you also would expect:

2022: 3297 SBA, so 2486/3297 = 75.4% success rate
2023: 572 SBA, so 455/572 = 79.5% success rate

I would not expect the MLB BA to change much, and it seems pretty similar:

2022: .243
2023: .245
But April offense usually is depressed and IIRC the figure for April last year was somewhat lower, (like .238?). So this may actually be a bigger change than expected.

I would not have expected the HR rate to change significantly either, but note:

2022: 5215 HR
2023: 5498 HR (projected based on 749 current HR) - 5.43% increase

Thanks for this, interesting.

Do you have any info on the comparison of IL designations?

[rhd]

Thanks for this, interesting.

Do you have any info on the comparison of IL designations?

Sorry, I dont.

[Moonlight J]

I update this page daily with the nubers on success rate, attempt rate, and frequency of attempting a steal when the next base is unoccupied.

League-wide BA has fallen this week because the batting average on groundballs took a noticeable plunge this week after 3 straight weeks of trending upward:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=11&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=mlb&statgroup=2&startDate=2023-03-01&endDate=2023-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=week&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=22,1

[Moonlight J]

I ran some numbers in an article before the season looking at potentially 4322 stolen base attempts this season. This is what the totals could look like at the success rates below. The league has been at or above 80% success rate each of the four weeks so far

Success Rate	SB	CS	SBA	Change from 2022
73%	3155	1167	4322	27%
74%	3198	1124	4322	29%
75%	3242	1081	4322	30%
76%	3285	1037	4322	32%
77%	3328	994	4322	34%
78%	3371	951	4322	36%
79%	3414	908	4322	37%
80%	3458	864	4322	39%

bvcigxnkxncbnbqfigzo.png

[Moonlight J]

Last night was the first night all season the pitchers/catchers won the battle as they threw out 9 of 17 attempted basestealers

[harmon]

Seems to me the bigger bases have really cut down on the oversliding problem so prevalent in recent years. Very glad to not see much of that anymore.

[Moonlight J]

Seems to me the bigger bases have really cut down on the oversliding problem so prevalent in recent years. Very glad to not see much of that anymore.

that's an excellent point. The bases appear to be a bit flatter & not as tough. I also feel that reduction in time to make a challenge comes into play as it's tough to make the go/no-go call within 10 seconds on those.

[Moonlight J]

and then the league went 27 for 29 stealing bases last night!

[Moonlight J]

put some numbers together showing net steals for clubs https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=394870798

[rhd]

With just about 1/4 of the season complete, here are the MLB top 10 in SBs:

Esteury Ruiz - 17 (if you gambled on the SB potential of this rookie, you're winning big so far)
Ronald Acuna - 15 (along w his great performance in other categories, he's the NL SB leader)
Ji-Hwan Bae -14 (another non-top prospect rookie who's paying big dividends)
Jazz Chisholm - 13 (the SBs are a bonus to the other potential of this exciting young player)
Anthony Volpe - 13 (counting today so far) (the swing and miss is concerning but the SBs, along w the power, make this top prospect very valuable anyway)
Wander Franco - 12 (he's starting to live up to the hype as expected - but noone was expecting these SB totals, too)
Cedric Mullins - 12 (a name you would expect to be on this list)
Jorge Mateo - 12 (another name you would expect - and he's hitting a lot better than expected so far)
Bobby Witt - 12 (yet another name you would expect on this list)
Nico Hoerner - 12 (seems to be consolidating last year's breakout season)

Most of these guys I have in one league or another. Not too surprising that I'm running away w the SB category in 2 leagues and near the top in the other one.

[madducks]

I had to decide between Snell and Ruiz for my last keeper. I chose poorly. But, I did manage to snag Nico for $5 at the auction. So, all was not lost as long as he still runs when he gets back from the IL.