NL Cy Young Award Race

[Moonlight J]

Yet as recently as 5-10 years ago, it was a common argument that elite closers were more valuable than starting pitchers because they would get into many more games and pressure situations. Gagne won the NL Cy in 2003 with similar numbers to Chapman, and he beat out a stunning year by Mark Prior. Eck won the Cy in '92 and beat out Clemens and 3 20-game winners. And if you say, 'the BBWAA are morons', well they're still the guys who hand out this award.

I don't buy the "failed starter" directive either -- Mo was a failed starter. So was Gagne and Eck. That's not a valid argument here. Heck, RA Dickey was a failed starter for 15 years!

I'd still lean Cueto, but Chapman can eat into the votes going his way and thus hand Dickey the award.

5-10 years ago, we weren't as informed. Schmidt or Prior could have done what Gagne did in 1 inning stints considering they faced 500 more batters than Gagne did over the course of the season.

When it all comes down to it, closers are failed starting pitchers

[Moonlight J]

coming into tonight, Cueto's 173 ERA+ led all starting pitchers in baseball by at least 18 points

[gcstomp]

you can't compare relievers and starters. After all, Chapman is a failed starter

4.6 fWAR for Cueto
3.5 fWAR for Chapman

Cueto has put in 3x the amount of innings as Chapman has hence the much greater impact

You have been hammering the line of Chapman is a failed starter line enough that I feel compelled to point out the obvious. He has excelled this year in the only opportunity he was offered. He failed last year in his everything, starts, relief, and personal issues as he could not find strike zone and had issues with his head, his focus. If given the closer role off the bat this year he would have closed the very narrow gap in fWAR you mention, with a month left I suspect he will anyway. If Chapman had been given reins this year as a starter instead of rp he would be having a peak Randy Johnson type year.

In any case, I am willing to lay odds that Dickey Wins Cy, as well as having a good gap of value over Cueto in 5x5 NL value (this is a roto sight after all).

[Judge Jude]

"If Chapman had been given reins this year as a starter instead of rp he would be having a peak Randy Johnson type year."

wow, that is without any evidence beyond belief.

the better play is to wonder whether Cueto would have matched Chapman's numbers in relief - until it plays out that as long as you save almost all of your games, nobody really cares if you tend to strike out the side, or allow a single here and there. your team still wins.

[revo]

5-10 years ago, we weren't as informed. Schmidt or Prior could have done what Gagne did in 1 inning stints considering they faced 500 more batters than Gagne did over the course of the season.

When it all comes down to it, closers are failed starting pitchers

So you're saying teams should not compensate closers because anyone can handle the job? That seems silly and simplistic, and too rift with sabermetric thinking of people who have never played the game. Heck, just look at all the closers who failed this year. So bullpenners have no value, since they can be replaced with virtually any pitcher? I'm sorry MJ, that just doesn't make sense to me.

I'm pretty sure the thinking that a good starter would make a good closer hasn't changed much in the last 10 years.

[Judge Jude]

Smoltz and Lowe say hi, among others.

The better case for closers is that not that many pitchers who aren't good enough to start are dominant reiievers, either. So yes, compensate the best ones with the most money.

But I don't see anyone dumb enough to suggest that even Strasburg would be "more valuable" as a closer, even though he'd surely handle the role nicely.

It's not hard to hold 2- or 3-run leads, and it's not THAT hard to handle a 1-run lead for 3 outs...

[gcstomp]

Opportunity means something. Chapman was never given a chance to fail as an SP, but he is slammed as a failed starter. He is putting up a ridiculous season this year as a closer, not a job he was handed from start & not a job he preferred as he viewed himself as an SP, so he has a few less saves than he could but thats no biggie. He had a circus of issues last year finding strike zone & had some well known personal issues, but his arm was never questioned. It is not like he has come out of nowhere, he was handed a huge contract because his scouting reports were as good as it gets showing he has a historical upside.

Is that part right there without evidence? Year 2012, he was not given the opportunity to start, that he has excelled in the only role he was given, and that his scouting reports coming up were as good as it gets? What would his upside be as an SP? Doesnt matter, I shouldnt have said Randy Johnson upside as it is clouding my point, he was never given chance.

[chancellor]

Voted-on Cy? I still like Cueto...not to knock Chapman, who is having a great season. But Cueto's put up dominant numbers in a hitters park having to face lineups multiple times. I'm not going to be heartbroken or whine a lot if Dickey wins, and he's a cool story, but I'd vote Cueto without hesitation if I had a vote.

Now, if we're talking Roto NL Cy/most valuable pitcher, then Chapman cleans up in either 4x4 or 5x5 formats, IMO.

[Moonlight J]

Opportunity means something. Chapman was never given a chance to fail as an SP, but he is slammed as a failed starter. He is putting up a ridiculous season this year as a closer, not a job he was handed from start & not a job he preferred as he viewed himself as an SP, so he has a few less saves than he could but thats no biggie. He had a circus of issues last year finding strike zone & had some well known personal issues, but his arm was never questioned. It is not like he has come out of nowhere, he was handed a huge contract because his scouting reports were as good as it gets showing he has a historical upside.

Is that part right there without evidence? Year 2012, he was not given the opportunity to start, that he has excelled in the only role he was given, and that his scouting reports coming up were as good as it gets? What would his upside be as an SP? Doesnt matter, I shouldnt have said Randy Johnson upside as it is clouding my point, he was never given chance.

If he was starting pitcher material, he would have been given more of an opportunity. With that delivery, he had short life cycle as a starter. They've found success for him and he's crushing it, but a great starting pitcher will always be more valuable than a dominant reliever.

[Roto Rooter]

I heard they engrave your ERA+ on the award now.

[Moonlight J]

I heard they engrave your ERA+ on the award now.

I'm sorry advanced stats intimidate you..it's the way the votes will go as the old guard retires and more new guard is let in

[Moonlight J]

So you're saying teams should not compensate closers because anyone can handle the job? That seems silly and simplistic, and too rift with sabermetric thinking of people who have never played the game. Heck, just look at all the closers who failed this year. So bullpenners have no value, since they can be replaced with virtually any pitcher? I'm sorry MJ, that just doesn't make sense to me.

I'm pretty sure the thinking that a good starter would make a good closer hasn't changed much in the last 10 years.

YES

The compensation model for paying closers is beyond moronic. The crappiest closer out there will make more in arbitration than the best middle reliever. David Robertson will get crap compared to Heath Bell if both were in arbitration.

Bullpeners have value, but a great starter is going to have at least 2x the value of the best reliever because they're impacting 220 innings rather than 70.

[james33]

Bullpeners have value, but a great starter is going to have at least 2x the value of the best reliever because they're impacting 220 innings rather than 70.

How does win probability/leverage play into this discussion? I'd still imagine that Cueto would outrank Chapman, but I'd also imagine that none of Chapman's 70 IPs occurred with a 6 run lead, while some of Cueto's occurred with a 6 run lead.

[Roto Rooter]

I'm sorry advanced stats intimidate you..it's the way the votes will go as the old guard retires and more new guard is let in

I'm sorry that calculators turn you on. New doesn't mean better. Unless it's the homerun king one single stat isn't the end all be all for evaluation.

[Judge Jude]

Well, we can all agree that more HR are hit in Cincinnati than NY, and if Dickey and Cueto switched parks, Dickey would allow more HR and Cueto would allow fewer. Is that in dispute?

Granted that occasionally you have extreme LF/RF effects or extreme groundballers, etc. But I don't think we're at an extreme here.