NL Cy Young Award Race

[revo]

riffing off the other thread, who's the leader as we enter the stretch? I think your contenders are, in no order:
- Johnny Cueto
- RA Dickey
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Clayton Kershaw
- Kyle Lohse
- Matt Cain
- Aroldis Chapman
- Gio Gonzalez
- AJ Burnett
- Stephen Strasburg
- Madison Bumgarner
- Wade Miley


I think it's a race to the wire between Dickey, Cueto, Zimm and Gio.

[Pauly]

kimbrel should be on that list if chapman is...no?

[Sharky]

Nearly everyone seems to be tiring down the stretch. Kimbrel and Chapman both gave up some earned runs recently (a rarity). I'm cheering for Dickey, though Cueto seems to be a lead candidate right now.

Interesting to note: Dickey beats out Cueto in many categories other than ERA... WHIP, Ks, IP, OppBA, CG (5 to 2), Shutouts (3 to 0), etc. Might be beating Cueto in ERA too, if not for that ill-advised use of Dickey in relief a while back.

[Erik]

Zimm got shelled today.

No Hamels on the list? He probably won't win because his team isn't contending, but his numbers are comparable to some of the guys on the list.

[Moonlight J]

Cueto
Cueto
Cueto

[Judge Jude]

Zimmermann has given up 15 ER in 13.3 IP since I traded for him. That would not help him get my vote...

[Stephen]

Cueto
Cueto
Cueto

[Sour Masher]

Anyone not rooting for a soon to be 38 year old knuckballer born without a ucl to win the Cy young has no sense of history or drama. Dickey isn't just a feel good pick. Right now, he deserves it. I don't see how anyone can make the case that Cueto deserves it more. Dickey has thrown 10 more innings, has a better whip, has 46 more Ks, and has been every bit as good as any pitcher in baseball this year.

Dickey winning the Cy Young this year would rank up there with one of the greatest stories in baseball history.

If Dickey falters, I hope it goes to Kershaw. He's had a heck of a year too, and outside his poor win total, which, as we all know, doesn't mean much.

[Sharky]

Anyone not rooting for a soon to be 38 year old knuckballer born without a ucl to win the Cy young has no sense of history or drama. Dickey isn't just a feel good pick. Right now, he deserves it. I don't see how anyone can make the case that Cueto deserves it more. Dickey has thrown 10 more innings, has a better whip, has 46 more Ks, and has been every bit as good as any pitcher in baseball this year.

Dickey winning the Cy Young this year would rank up there with one of the greatest stories in baseball history.

If Dickey falters, I hope it goes to Kershaw. He's had a heck of a year too, and outside his poor win total, which, as we all know, doesn't mean much.

Well said!!!

[Sharky]

Cueto
Cueto
Cueto

Jason, is that your take on who deserves it? Or is that the guy you want to win?

[Moonlight J]

Jason, is that your take on who deserves it? Or is that the guy you want to win?

He deserves it

[chancellor]

Anyone not rooting for a soon to be 38 year old knuckballer born without a ucl to win the Cy young has no sense of history or drama. Dickey isn't just a feel good pick. Right now, he deserves it. I don't see how anyone can make the case that Cueto deserves it more.

I can. The park difference is huge. 2012 park factor for GABP in Cinci = 1.134, 4th highest in the NL. Citi is 0.834, in the bottom 5 of NL parks. Just for perspective, Petco is 0.797.

[revo]

Cueto's ERA+ is 171.

Dickey's is 145.

Is Cueto even the best pitcher on his own team? Chapman's ERA+ is an astounding 335, and he has only 31 less K's than Cueto in nearly 120 less IP.

[Moonlight J]

Is Cueto even the best pitcher on his own team? Chapman's ERA+ is an astounding 335, and he has only 31 less K's than Cueto in nearly 120 less IP.

you can't compare relievers and starters. After all, Chapman is a failed starter

4.6 fWAR for Cueto
3.5 fWAR for Chapman

Cueto has put in 3x the amount of innings as Chapman has hence the much greater impact

[revo]

you can't compare relievers and starters. After all, Chapman is a failed starter

4.6 fWAR for Cueto
3.5 fWAR for Chapman

Cueto has put in 3x the amount of innings as Chapman has hence the much greater impact

Yet as recently as 5-10 years ago, it was a common argument that elite closers were more valuable than starting pitchers because they would get into many more games and pressure situations. Gagne won the NL Cy in 2003 with similar numbers to Chapman, and he beat out a stunning year by Mark Prior. Eck won the Cy in '92 and beat out Clemens and 3 20-game winners. And if you say, 'the BBWAA are morons', well they're still the guys who hand out this award.

I don't buy the "failed starter" directive either -- Mo was a failed starter. So was Gagne and Eck. That's not a valid argument here. Heck, RA Dickey was a failed starter for 15 years!

I'd still lean Cueto, but Chapman can eat into the votes going his way and thus hand Dickey the award.