Liriano to the Yanks Rumour?

[BuckyBuckner]

No sh!t Sherlock...yup that is a homer comment, you figured me out.

Here's where you're wrong, again, on several fronts. Nova is not a front line prospect, nor is Laird. BA profiles him as in the "Kevin Kouzmanoff Mode", not thanks. He's a nice player, not a great player, and it'll take great player to get Liriano, someone who has PROVEN himself to be elite at the major league level, and is still in his 20's despite having TJ surgery. You think the Yanks don't want to give up elite prospects? Too bad...that's the price that they'll have to pay, no matter if it's Lirano, Carpenter, or another top 30 starter. You pay, you get, you don't pay, you get nothing. Much like Colon, Garcia, and the rest of the dross that are now filling in the last couple of spots in the Yankee rotation.

You think the Twins fans are putting pressure on their front office to make a deal? Wait until the season starts and the 3-4-5 starters of the Yanks are getting blown up, which is a very strong possibility...think the back pages of the Tabs won't be going insane then?

And again, you're right about something...it's nothing more than rumor being batted about at this point...and that is EXACTLY why the Twins don't have to do anything. There is no pressure to deal Liriano for a bag of magic beans, ala Santana. They have those 2 1st rounders sitting out there that they'll be more than happy to take as compensation.

He's had TWO TJ surgeries. I agree that Nova should not be the centerpiece of a deal. Nor should Laird. However, one thing that has to be considered is the fact that Minnesota is scared about his arm and therefore they don't want to give him a contract when he's a free agent. That's why there are rumors of a trade. That right there knocks his value down.

As for your magical 2 1st round picks...No one is going to sign him if he's having his third TJ surgery. Just saying...

[joncarlos]

Nova would be a perfect Twin. Liriano doesn't fit the mold - a little durable, a little wild, strikes out too many, maybe a little too outspoken. They would be happy with 5 Brad Radkes/Scott Baker/Carl Pavano types. Nova is a 20-something Carl Pavano.

Montero would actually fit in nicely as well. I know it's not ideal to tie up your DH spot but they could have him catch 40-50 games a year and DH the rest, and have Mauer spend those 40-50 games at DH. Everyone says Mauer isn't going to be a catcher forever. Maybe this extends things. Alternatively, they could take Romine or Sanchez and start planning the transition now.

Do I think there's any chance this happens? Not really. But I think the Twins don't mind having his name out there and having the Yankees think about it. Maybe they get desperate enough to offer Banuelos and Montero. You never know.

[Hornsby]

He's had TWO TJ surgeries. I agree that Nova should not be the centerpiece of a deal. Nor should Laird. However, one thing that has to be considered is the fact that Minnesota is scared about his arm and therefore they don't want to give him a contract when he's a free agent. That's why there are rumors of a trade. That right there knocks his value down.

As for your magical 2 1st round picks...No one is going to sign him if he's having his third TJ surgery. Just saying...

Actually, he's only had ONE TJ surgery...if you can find a record of that 2nd one, I'd be interested. And I'm really amused at how everyone is predicting that his arm is going to give out again...isn't that the risk with any pitcher, any time he throws a ball?

And the Twins aren't so much scared about his arm as hesitant to sign ANY pitcher to a long term deal...the track record isn't very good.

[BuckyBuckner]

Actually, he's only had ONE TJ surgery...if you can find a record of that 2nd one, I'd be interested. And I'm really amused at how everyone is predicting that his arm is going to give out again...isn't that the risk with any pitcher, any time he throws a ball?

And the Twins aren't so much scared about his arm as hesitant to sign ANY pitcher to a long term deal...the track record isn't very good.

Didn't he have one with the Giants when he was in the minors? He was a throw-in in the Pierzynski deal cause his arm was considered so fragile. In 2003 he only pitched in 9 games from shoulder injuries. So I guess it wasn't TJ but this is what was said about him at the time of the trade: "interesting raw prospect with major injury concerns." Link

Stepping back from Liriano. So because you have a bad track record of doing something you should never do it again? I don't think that is the way to go. You need to learn from your mistakes and make smarter moves. But to never do it cause you were burned once or twice isn't smart.

[Moonlight J]

Actually, he's only had ONE TJ surgery...if you can find a record of that 2nd one, I'd be interested. And I'm really amused at how everyone is predicting that his arm is going to give out again...isn't that the risk with any pitcher, any time he throws a ball?

And the Twins aren't so much scared about his arm as hesitant to sign ANY pitcher to a long term deal...the track record isn't very good.

He had something in 2003 as a prospect as he threw just 9 innings that season. I thought it was a stress fracture but I can't recall.

[BuckyBuckner]

He had something in 2003 as a prospect as he threw just 9 innings that season. I thought it was a stress fracture but I can't recall.

My link above only says this, "Shoulder injuries limited Liriano to just nine innings in 2003." Maybe you can find something with more detail. I could have sworn it was TJ surgery.

[chancellor]

My link above only says this, "Shoulder injuries limited Liriano to just nine innings in 2003." Maybe you can find something with more detail. I could have sworn it was TJ surgery.

He had trouble with the shoulder in '02 as well. I can't find a link, but I believe he had minor arthroscopic surgery on the shoulder late in '03.

Only one TJ surgery.

[Bob Kohm]

I think that everyone is getting a bit wrapped up in this. I'm certainly not saying that the Twins "have to" trade Liriano, but clearly they're more than open to the idea-- he has major injury risks based on his track record, he has been criticized publicly by the team on a few occasions and he is close to getting to the point where a major commitment needs to be made. The Yankees can obviously use a quality arm. These are the situations that rumours are made of.

I am not saying that the Twins would trade him straight up for Nova; I am saying that, as they did with Santana, they're overvaluing their asset if they think that Liriano is going to bring back multiple top rated MLB-close prospects or even a top-5 MLB prospect with others thrown in. I don't see it given the risk and the player we'e talking about, and that is the same whether we're talking Montero, Moustakas or anyone else in the 2011 top 10 for him.

ElD makes a bizarre statement when he says, "I would argue that Liriano's value is exceptionally close to Johan Santana's at the time he was traded, in no small part due to contract status and, of course, taking injury risk into consideration. He's also younger.". That comparison is, well, crazy-- and given that it comes from someone as baseball smart as ElD I think it illustrates that we're getting into a bit of a situational feeding frenzy here with the Yankee angle. At the time he was traded, Santana had won two of the previous four Cy Young Awards (finishing 3rd & 5th in the voting the years he didn't win), had posted the league leading WHIP in the four campaigns leading up to the trade and led in ERA+ in three of those years, led in both Ks & H/9 in three of those four years and importantly threw 200IP+ without injury in all four of those years. The guys who show up on his comparables have names like Oswalt, Sabathia, Carpenter, Gibson, Ford and Cone. Francisco Liriano is two years younger now than Johan was at his trade out of Minneapolis, granted, and there are two years of team control on his deal-- both points in his favor. As for performance... He had that insane rookie campaign in 2006 that was clearly one for the ages... until he blew out his elbow after 121 IPs of great pitching. 2007 saw zero starts, 2008 saw 14 decent but not anything special starts, 2009 was a mind-boggling disaster of a year and 2010 was a glimpse of who he is now-- a better than league average pitcher (115 ERA+) who does a very good job of limiting HRs while posting high K numbers. Clearly that's a valuable guy if his arm holds together and his attitude isn't as bad as the Twins have said it was in the past, but that plus his age and contract don't put him on the same planet as where Santanna was at the end of 2007 to any reasonable read, imo. Is the 2006 Liriano gone? Probably, but who knows. Is the 2010 Liriano or even something a bit better for real? Probably, but who knows-- he looks like a very bad injury risk given the two big ones and approximately 2.75 aggregate years he's lost to them.

The Twins can afford to hold onto Liriano and see if he can repeat or build on 2010 and they probably should-- barring a Hank blowup the Twins aren't going to get anything close to these silly Montero + Banuelos + xyz offers that people are talking about, and politically they can't seem to afford to take a rational deal involving guys like Nova, Laird, Warren, Adams, etc. Boo Hoo for the tabloid twitterheads who need something to write about, but then again this gives them carte blanche to keep inventing rumours around Liriano until his arm falls off or the Twins do find a deal for him.

[joncarlos]

I don't understand how Liriano only got 4.3mil in arbitration (he settled, but even he only asked for 5). I guess it was the injury history? He was a 4.6 WAR player last year (BBRef) and 2nd year arbitration is usually about 60% of market value. Even assuming 4mil per win, he should have been around 11mil.

So if next year is also an arbitration year and he puts up 4 WAR this year he would expect around 12.8mil (maybe cut that in half for whatever mysterious reason impacted this year). That's only a savings of 3.2mil (or around 9mil if the mysterious discount happens again)... we'll split the difference and call it 6mil surplus next year.

Assuming he earns about $11mil in profit this year and $6mil next year that's $17mil in value. I believe that a top 10 hitter is worth 30mil (yes - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/...ystem-rankings says 32.5mil) So no, he's not worth Montero plus. If you put a win at $5mil then he's closer.

[Funkley]

If you settle for garbage once then all you're likely to be offered again is garbage. Bill Smith has shown himself to be awful in these stand offs. My money is on him getting garbage'd again.

[Bob Kohm]

Liriano is easily worth Montero plus.

You keep insisting that, but you're not backing it up. If we were talking about a 26 year old pitcher with no injury issues who had a terrible year in 2009 but good years in '06 & '10, you'd be better served by your position. The problem is that you're not. You're talking about a guy with a track record of both serious elbow and shoulder injuries and the unexplained meltdown of 2009 to go with the Ok partial year in 2008 and the quite good but nothing terribly remarkable year in 2010. I don't see a track record there that would cause be to invest such a huge chunk of future in obtaining it. Injury Risk + Attitude Risk + Liriano's Performance + Age + Price just doesn't add up to the kind of package you're positing in my opinion.

[joncarlos]

Uh, you know that's not $32.5 million annually, right? That's over the entirety of a career (or at least that's what I'd guess.....that's kind of a trainwreck of a bad article you cited).

Liriano is easily worth Montero plus.

Yeah, $30mil for a career. I could find the original work (which that article cites) but the idea is the same. I know there are some flaws but I have seen a lot of people citing it so I assume that it has at least some validity.

If we assume that players are basically paid what they are worth in terms of WAR once they are done with their team-controlled years then you could argue that all of that 30mil is in the first 6 years, with the vast majority of it in the first 3.

So yes, if Montero is theoretically worth around 30mil in surplus value and Liriano is worth 20 then Montero is worth more.

Where you are on the win curve can impact the value per win pretty significantly, though. If the Twins are playoff contenders then they might value present performance at 6mil/win or higher, making Liriano more profitable and discounting Montero's future value.

Ask Neal Huntington who he'd rather have, and I'd bet the answer is Montero.

[BuckyBuckner]

Let's look at a frame of reference here. Cashman said he would trade Montero for Cliff Lee but when there were other pitchers available he said he would not part with Montero for them. I'm blanking on who those pitchers were.

[Funkley]

If worth is the debate then you look for a similar player to Liriano dealt in the last year or so and what the return was. Marcum maybe? I would say Montero is unrealistic as a return. Howoften does any top 5 prospect get traded? Not much anymore.

[joncarlos]

If worth is the debate then you look for a similar player to Liriano dealt in the last year or so and what the return was. Marcum maybe? I would say Montero is unrealistic as a return. Howoften does any top 5 prospect get traded? Not much anymore.

I think the closest comp is Greinke.

09:$3.75M, 10:$7.25M, 11:$13.5M, 12:$13.5M
2009: 9 WAR
2010: 2.4 WAR

So his value isn't consistent, but neither is Liriano. If you think that he's a 4-5 WAR player in Milwaukee for 2 years, then he'll earn them about 8mil in profit at 4mil/win and about 13mil in profit at 5mil/win. Not quite Liriano but close. And he was traded for Cain, Jeffress and Escobar. Would you trade Cain, Escobar and Jeffress for Montero if you owned the Royals? I think you would. So Liriano is more valuable, but so is Montero.