2K14: Billy Hamilton

[james33]

As privately held companies, they're not obligated to report on this. Among US teams in the big four sports, only the Packers do anything similar. A number of world soccer clubs are publicly traded but there's some dispute about where the division is between the LLC and the principal owners' pockets.

MLB owners would be overwhelmingly against increased financial transparency. The few glimpses we've had at how their internal machinations work (e.g. the McCourt divorce proceedings and the Wilpons lawsuit) have been eye openers.

Agree they aren't obligated to report it, since they are private. I'm arguing, for PR reasons, some teams might actually be better off reporting their finances. If they really aren't making much money, all the more reason to be transparent. Even if they are making some money, I wonder if some fans will understand that they are in it to make some money?

I haven't paid hardly any attention to the McCourt/Wilpons - not enuf to know what was learned there.

[chancellor]

I don't know what the Reds capability for payroll is. If the question is whether they have room to spend more and drive their profit to zero, I wouldn't be surprised if the answer is yes, but that's not how people run businesses. Typically they have a certain profit margin that they expect to get.

Agreed. And I know that Mark Attansio is willing to accept a pretty narrow profit margin as Milwaukee's owner, but is determined to still stay profitable. You are correct that I don't know all of the Brewer revenue streams, but Attansio's actions support that theme pretty well.

I'll accept that I could be wrong, based on what's out in the public forums may be incorrect information, but I'm reasonably confident Cincinnati has at least a $20 mil/year revenue advantage over the Brewers. The Brewers TV contract isn't Houston-bad, but it's still pretty awful. Their radio contract is little better. Average ticket prices in Cinci are slightly higher than Milwaukee.

So I feel pretty good about my assertation that Cincinnati could still be profitable at $128 mil/year. Their ownership, who I will credit with being smart business people, I believe did the calculus to determine that their payroll at $14 mil/year less would not hurt their revenue streams significantly and would therefore allow for a wider profit margin.

[cavebird]

Agreed. And I know that Mark Attansio is willing to accept a pretty narrow profit margin as Milwaukee's owner, but is determined to still stay profitable. You are correct that I don't know all of the Brewer revenue streams, but Attansio's actions support that theme pretty well.

I'll accept that I could be wrong, based on what's out in the public forums may be incorrect information, but I'm reasonably confident Cincinnati has at least a $20 mil/year revenue advantage over the Brewers. The Brewers TV contract isn't Houston-bad, but it's still pretty awful. Their radio contract is little better. Average ticket prices in Cinci are slightly higher than Milwaukee.

So I feel pretty good about my assertation that Cincinnati could still be profitable at $128 mil/year. Their ownership, who I will credit with being smart business people, I believe did the calculus to determine that their payroll at $14 mil/year less would not hurt their revenue streams significantly and would therefore allow for a wider profit margin.

The problem is that there are too many variables that are unknown here. Sure, Cincy probably has more revenue than Milwaukee. However, we don't know how much each team spends on scouting, international development/camps/etc., and a million other items. Therefore, it is not an apples to apples comparison because major leage payroll is not the only expenditure. Could the Reds move money around, lower profit, or something to increase major league payroll? Sure. Would it be smart? Hard to say without knowing what the alternative uses of that revenue are.

[cavebird]

This thread seems to have veered way off course from Billy Hamilton... lets do end of year projections based on the first three weeks:
.265, 2HR, 40RBI, 62 stolen bases

If he hits .265, he'll steal far more than 62 bases.

[Hornsby]

Ray Flowers @BaseballGuys 32m


RT @seanlahman: Reds' Billy Hamilton is batting .345 over last 8 games. Small sample size and all, but still... 10/29 with 7 SBs

[Big Tymer]

Larger sample than what he did to start the year when everyone was so quick to say told you so (despite the fact he was going against STL). Frustrates me to no end when people are ok using SSS to validate pov's but quickly dismiss SSS when it runs contra to their preconceptions.

Billy is exactly who we thought he is which is a sub .260 hitter who if he doesn't learn how to walk (which is tough when you'd rather just throw it down Main Street) should not be batting lead off.

[james33]

Ray Flowers @BaseballGuys 32m


RT @seanlahman: Reds' Billy Hamilton is batting .345 over last 8 games. Small sample size and all, but still... 10/29 with 7 SBs

And in the next game after that stat was posted, Hamilton batted .400!

In those 7 games that he batted .345, Hamilton struck out 7 times. In the next game in which he batted .400, Hamilton struck out twice.

Billy Hamilton - the most interesting man in the fantasy world. When Billy Hamilton strikes out, the catcher gives him second base, just out of courtesy.

[The Dane]

I have no problem with Hamilton, just with the way he is perceived and treated by the fantasy community. People get stupid about Billy Hamilton. Big Tymer points it out; people stop really thinking about what is happening and just react stupidly to every AB. I'd love to have Hamilton on any of my teams (I don't). However, unless he was protected as a minor leaguer, you had to pay top dollar to get him, which means you either tracked him for some years through the minors and watched him languishing on your bench pining for his possible future, watching him destroy minor league SB numbers OR you paid through the nose to get him; either way, his owners are well-invested.

Truth is you could probably get Campana and Young for 1/3 the price you paid for Hamilton and get about the same stats. SBs are cheap, really. All you need to do is have one budget dollar bump into a Nate McLouth 30-SB season and you're competitive in that category without heavily investing. Overpaying for SBs is not nearly as bad as overpaying for saves, but it's similar. SBs can be had cheaply, so why sink a sizable chunk of your budget on a one-category guy when you can backfill the same SBs for next-to-nothing.

[cavebird]

I have no problem with Hamilton, just with the way he is perceived and treated by the fantasy community. People get stupid about Billy Hamilton. Big Tymer points it out; people stop really thinking about what is happening and just react stupidly to every AB. I'd love to have Hamilton on any of my teams (I don't). However, unless he was protected as a minor leaguer, you had to pay top dollar to get him, which means you either tracked him for some years through the minors and watched him languishing on your bench pining for his possible future, watching him destroy minor league SB numbers OR you paid through the nose to get him; either way, his owners are well-invested.

Truth is you could probably get Campana and Young for 1/3 the price you paid for Hamilton and get about the same stats. SBs are cheap, really. All you need to do is have one budget dollar bump into a Nate McLouth 30-SB season and you're competitive in that category without heavily investing. Overpaying for SBs is not nearly as bad as overpaying for saves, but it's similar. SBs can be had cheaply, so why sink a sizable chunk of your budget on a one-category guy when you can backfill the same SBs for next-to-nothing.

I agree with this, but I think my season is about to prove this theory wrong as some bad win luck combined with no closers and not enough speed leaves me languishing in three categories and dead in the water.

[eephus]

I have no problem with Hamilton, just with the way he is perceived and treated by the fantasy community. People get stupid about Billy Hamilton. Big Tymer points it out; people stop really thinking about what is happening and just react stupidly to every AB. I'd love to have Hamilton on any of my teams (I don't). However, unless he was protected as a minor leaguer, you had to pay top dollar to get him, which means you either tracked him for some years through the minors and watched him languishing on your bench pining for his possible future, watching him destroy minor league SB numbers OR you paid through the nose to get him; either way, his owners are well-invested.

Truth is you could probably get Campana and Young for 1/3 the price you paid for Hamilton and get about the same stats. SBs are cheap, really. All you need to do is have one budget dollar bump into a Nate McLouth 30-SB season and you're competitive in that category without heavily investing. Overpaying for SBs is not nearly as bad as overpaying for saves, but it's similar. SBs can be had cheaply, so why sink a sizable chunk of your budget on a one-category guy when you can backfill the same SBs for next-to-nothing.

I agree with all this and that's the reason Hamilton isn't on my teams. But guys like Hamilton who have unique but flawed skill sets are a lot of fun to watch. I think they're good for both baseball and fantasy baseball. I'd feel the same way about a pitcher who throws 103mph without command or a guy like Joey Gallo.

[The Dane]

IBut guys like Hamilton who have unique but flawed skill sets are a lot of fun to watch. I think they're good for both baseball and fantasy baseball.

These ideas seem contradictory to me. I totally agree with your overall concept, but I think guys like Hamilton are fantastically awesome for baseball; they are eminently watchable and make good entertainment. However, they are team-killers in fantasy. The highest I saw Hamilton go for in a draft was $28. Let's assume he earns $28, I think we can be certain that the great share of that value will come from SBs (and some in runs, granted). But $28 worth of SBs can be had much more cheaply than that, maybe for only $10, leaving another $18 for improving your team. If he ends up being worth less, well, we all know how that goes.

These guys kill more teams than they lead to championships. That said, I'd have been perfectly happy to have Hamilton cheap... but he wasn't to be had cheaply in any of my drafts.

[eephus]

These ideas seem contradictory to me. I totally agree with your overall concept, but I think guys like Hamilton are fantastically awesome for baseball; they are eminently watchable and make good entertainment. However, they are team-killers in fantasy. The highest I saw Hamilton go for in a draft was $28. Let's assume he earns $28, I think we can be certain that the great share of that value will come from SBs (and some in runs, granted). But $28 worth of SBs can be had much more cheaply than that, maybe for only $10, leaving another $18 for improving your team. If he ends up being worth less, well, we all know how that goes.

These guys kill more teams than they lead to championships. That said, I'd have been perfectly happy to have Hamilton cheap... but he wasn't to be had cheaply in any of my drafts.

When I said "good for fantasy baseball", I meant that in the sense that he generates a lot of discussion around strategy and the hobby in general. At his 2014 ADP, he's a terrible fantasy value with high risk and moderate reward. But he's captured the imagination of people a lot more than Ben Revere or Everth Cabrera ever will.

[Judge Jude]

Hamilton has his AVG up to .221, but interesting that he's now 10 for 15 in SB attempts.

for the less stat-minded folks, that is known as "spinning your wheels," since a CS out is roughly twice as damaging as a SB base. in real baseball, this is a contributor?

[RSF]

Hamilton has his AVG up to .221, but interesting that he's now 10 for 15 in SB attempts.

for the less stat-minded folks, that is known as "spinning your wheels," since a CS out is roughly twice as damaging as a SB base. in real baseball, this is a contributor?

It's almost impossible for a hitter to have value with a .253 OBP and a .279 SLG (OPS of .532). He has an OPS+ of 48.

In 2013, Dodgers pitchers had an OPS of .461. when batting.

[cavebird]

It's almost impossible for a hitter to have value with a .253 OBP and a .279 SLG (OPS of .532). He has an OPS+ of 48.

In 2013, Dodgers pitchers had an OPS of .461. when batting.

Greinke had an insane year.