J.A. Happ

[Kevin Seitzer]

Jump on the J.A. Happ train before it leaves the station.

[Gregg]

I have had Happ at $5 since auction day. He needs to stay hot so I can trade him.

[joncarlos]

Has he actually made any changes lately, or is he just having better results? I like the K/9 but the walks are still high overall.

[Judge Jude]

Happ for $5?

not unless it's 20-team NL.

my praise: He's not as bad as you think.

[Controller Jacobs]

He was very solid in his last six starts of 2011. Combining that with 2012, when he's allowed less than 2 HR (11/15 starts, 8/9 at home), he gets a "quality start". Very good guy to rotate for home and favorable starts.

One interesting negative - opponent's BA has gotten higher over the last couple years ago, specifically lefties. LHB were hitting < .220 from 2008-2010, .270+ for 2011 and 2012. They need to get their pitch f/x guy on that...

[Kevin Seitzer]

Has he actually made any changes lately, or is he just having better results? I like the K/9 but the walks are still high overall.

Four walks in 17 innings in his last 3 starts. Infer what you may from that. His last 3 starts are a pretty good barometer of what I expect to see from him going forward. I'm not saying he's going to be a top 5 starter in the NL, but he ought to be worth starting every turn in an NL-only league.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I have had Happ at $5 since auction day. He needs to stay hot so I can trade him.

See, now that would be getting off the train just as it leaves the station.

[Kevin Seitzer]

They need to get their pitch f/x guy on that...

They really should.

[Gregg]

Happ for $5?

not unless it's 20-team NL.

my prasie: He's not as bad as you think.

No, but it is a very deep NL only 5x5 keeper league. 12 teams, can keep up to 15 per year, 17 round reserve draft. Large inflation.

[Gregg]

See, now that would be getting off the train just as it leaves the station.

We do not get to keep Houston players that were drafted this year.

[Controller Jacobs]

Speaking of the 'stros, the Carlos Lee deal is in its last year, Happ and Lowrie become FA in 2015.

So for at least 2013-2104, there is a salary base around $42M (assuming Myers' option is exercised), with a really nice MI of Altuve/Lowrie/Gonzalez and a nice pitching core of Wandy/Norris/Happ.

It will be very interesting to see if Houston decides as soon as next year to return to the $90M range, even the $75M range. And, while I don't want to get anyone too excited, but former 'stro Geoff Blum is a FA next year.

[Controller Jacobs]

Wait, can anyone explain to me why Happ is someone to target? After looking at his stats, he's been more or less the same pitcher for several years now --- FIP in the 4.5 range, 7-ish K/9, good for an injury or two...

What I saw when I picked him during our reserve draft:
1. K-rate
2. Had a definite spot in the rotation
3. Better at home
4. Good end to last year
5. NL Central

That all added up to him being a good bet as a guy I could rotate in for favorable matchups.
For me, K-rate and better at home are really key to rotating pitchers. If you have a guy with good ratios and a poor k rate, he's barley better than a good setup guy. If you have a guy who's better at home, that coincides with the home-field advantage to give a better chance to get the win.

[Moonlight J]

hmmmm




Also seeing less changeups and more cutters this season than in past seasons

[CoachK]

For those who care about such things, yesterday's victory was the 29th of Happ's career, which ties him for the all-time record for most major-league wins by a Northwestern graduate. As a Northwestern graduate myself, I'm one of those people who cares about such things. I'm only 29 behind him.

[Kevin Seitzer]

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/5/24/3040437/this-week-in-astros-pitching