Will Roy Halladay make it to 300 career wins?

[Judge Jude]

"Koufax's best WHIP in a season is an amazing 0.855. Halladay's never gone under 1.00 in a full season. Koufax struck out 160 more batters in a single year than Halladay has --- that's a full season worth of strikeouts for most pitchers, yet that's just the difference between these two greats."

Neither adjusts for Koufax playing in a preposterous pitchers park or in a low run-scoring era, or Koufax getting to pitch to pitchers and Halladay often not, or modern backups in AL East being far more dangerous than 150-lb SSs in the 1960s. At least ERA+ adjusts; Koufax's peak is better, although at the extremes even that number gets trickier (few total runs being scored, period, in that park).

[cavebird]

Moved to Philly and took LESS money than market - did c.lee do that or poo-holes or fielder or any borass client, sorry, I digress.

This means that Halladay actually wanted to continue to pitch for the Phillies. That has to be a minus, not a plus.

[Judge Jude]

"If it was so easy to strike out 380+ batters in the 1960s, shouldn't someone else have done it, too?"

who said it was easy? it was great, even with the absurd advantages. call it 310, it's still great

Halladay IP, ranks in league top 10 - 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5
Koufax IP, ranks in league top 10...- 1 1 3 4

how come Koufax only was in the top 5 (and top 10) four times? what a wussy
lol

Koufax in ERA+ - 1 1 2 3 4 5
Halladay ERA+ -- 1 2 2 3 3 4 4

the point isn't that Halladay is/was as good as Koufax. it's that if Koufax is inner circle, how is Halladay not in at all?

[Judge Jude]

four years of phenomenal and six years of great are inner circle, but Halladay's longer impressive body of work leaves him buying a ticket?

kind of a gerrymandered approach, no? unless you're saying Koufax is only a middle of the pack HOFer.

[onejayhawk]

If you average a players 5 best seasons, and that average is in the MVP/CY running, then the player is a HoF IMO.

By that standard, Halladay is a no brainer.

J

[Sour Masher]

If you average a players 5 best seasons, and that average is in the MVP/CY running, then the player is a HoF IMO.

By that standard, Halladay is a no brainer.

J

I think this is a good, simple way to put it, and I agree--at least 5 years of CY Young/MVP type numbers is about where I'd want the cut off, and for the Glavines of the world, the fact that they weren't at that level could be made up for by the sheer longevity of being at a top 10 level. So, the less elite/great you are, the longer you have to be really, really good.

The HOF is for the very best of their generation. Of course Koufax was that, and Pedro was that, and Halladay is that too, even if he is no Koufax or Pedro. And of course, it is unlikely Halladay is done right now. I expect him to have at least 3-4 more good years, and I expect almost everyone to agree he is hall worthy if/when that happens.

[Riff Raff]

No I haven't looked it up - but does Mulder's best 5 really match up with what Halladay accomplished in his best 5?

Doubt it. (dominance vs being pretty good - however you define it)

Better than Koufax? Apples to oranges but the answer is no.

HOF worthy? Yes. Doc ain't no Blyleven.

[cavebird]

No I haven't looked it up - but does Mulder's best 5 really match up with what Halladay accomplished in his best 5?

Doubt it. (dominance vs being pretty good - however you define it)

Better than Koufax? Apples to oranges but the answer is no.

HOF worthy? Yes. Doc ain't no Blyleven.

It is a dangerous way to formulate the issue. Forget Mulder; Dale Murphy clearly gets into the Hall under and so do several others who won't make it in.

[Judge Jude]

Mulder had ONE year with an ERA+ over 126, and in fact qualified for the ERA title (162 IP) only 5 times.
Halladay beat Mulder's best ERA+ of 143 EIGHT times.
Mulder got Cy Young votes ONCE (he came in 2nd).

The only thing they have in common is that they both play/played baseball.

Dale Murphy is a different story. He remains a debatable candidate because of his 1982-87 peak, which includes 5 Gold Gloves and five OPS+s in the 140s and 150s, with a pair of MVPs.

[senorsheep]

If you average a players 5 best seasons, and that average is in the MVP/CY running, then the player is a HoF IMO.

Somebody call Larry Walker.

[gcstomp]

This thread reminds me of nailing jello to a wall. Original thread title was a query of Roy Halladay making it to 300 wins. Morphed into a HOF debate, of will he or wont he. He is very projectable, but not there yet, imo. But that simple question squished out the sides, as he is now a HOF'er, rather than is he on a projectable path. Meandering along the bunny trail came the names, fast and furious, Koufax, Mulder, Walker, Murphy, Santana.

The fun of course is that HOF does not have a standard threshold for admittance, so it is even more amorphous than judging a water ballet contest. WAR is a construct used by those outside the voting, greatness is the standard, as well as the shadow for the voters.

Since I like to add my opinion to HOF debates:
Roy is both a yes and a no, depending on the question. Yes, he is on a HOF projectable path, no, he has not earned his way in.

Mulder was an odd comment, he is a zero chancer.

Johan Santana holds a special place in my memories so I am sure I a swayed, but to me he is similar chance to Halladay. On the right path, but not there yet.

[Judge Jude]

Halladay is a lot different than, say, Mussina, who has a lot to offer but not the "story" that a Koufax does, or a Halladay does.

My point was never to say that Halladay was better than Koufax; merely that claiming that Koufax is inner circle and Halladay is out entirely would be an odd pairing. One person had Koufax in the middle and Halladay out, which is a different stance. Although saying that Koufax is in and Halladay is still YEARS away is something that might have a crowd of just one supporting here as well.

fyi, Moyer got released yesterday, so once again the number of active pitchers with that meager 200 W you cite is ZERO (same as 2011).

also, Tim Hudson is no Halladay, but he's 184-99 in his career with a good but not amazing prime. He's on his way but not there yet.
Halladay, yes, he might be there already.

[DJBeasties]

Halladay is a lot different than, say, Mussina, who has a lot to offer but not the "story" that a Koufax does, or a Halladay does.

My point was never to say that Halladay was better than Koufax; merely that claiming that Koufax is inner circle and Halladay is out entirely would be an odd pairing. One person had Koufax in the middle and Halladay out, which is a different stance. Although saying that Koufax is in and Halladay is still YEARS away is something that might have a crowd of just one supporting here as well.

fyi, Moyer got released yesterday, so once again the number of active pitchers with that meager 200 W you cite is ZERO (same as 2011).

also, Tim Hudson is no Halladay, but he's 184-99 in his career with a good but not amazing prime. He's on his way but not there yet.
Halladay, yes, he might be there already.

Can you help me understand with regard to Koufax this inner circle that keeps being referred to? Also, what "story"? I feel like there is a perception of mythology here. Koufax is in, first ballot, on merit. I don't think there is some good ol' boys club that he had in his back pocket.

[Judge Jude]

Fans and "experts" didn't understand park effects and era differences at the time, so they took Koufax as almost literally the greatest pitcher ever just because his ERA was so low. Gibson got that benefit in 1968, when no one seemed to notice how low ALL of the numbers were.
Now, Koufax and Gibson are both Hall of Famers anyway, but we now better put their accomplishments into context.

Koufax has a 4-year or 6-year peak that is right up there, even with adjustments, with all-time greats. But it's not BETTER, and most of those other greats have another 5-15 years of merit where Koufax has none, so it's silly to rank Koufax with them overall. Koufax also retired at his peak, so there was no decline phase. If he went 20-30 over a couple of forgettable seasons to finish, he'd still be short of 200 wins and his ERA wouldn't look as dazzling, so the "story" would be lessened (though he'd still be worthy from his peak).

Is Koufax a top 10 all-time pitcher? Most would have said so 20-30 years ago; far fewer would now as the context is clearer. If you'll consider him around the top 10, I'm saying, then how can you knock Halladay out of the HOF completely? Less dominant, but very dominant, and for several more years. Either peak matters, or it doesn't. Halladay has a really good peak AND prime.

Halladay has a postseason no-hitter and did more memorable things than a Mussina did.....

[TS Garp]

I have looked back through the thread and have no idea where this "inner circle" concept that you've been railing on about comes from. Moreover, the notion that there are zero players with 200 wins is relatively meaningless. Must there be a Hall of Famer at any given time or any given year?

Halladay is, at a minimum, three years of solid performance away from HoF consideration. He only has a slight edge over Koufax right now in innings pitched and doesn't have the dominant peak (not even close, as discussed earlier) that Koufax had. Halladay has almost the exact same resume that Tim Hudson has. Their records are extremely similar, they've pitched about the same number of innings, had close to the same peak years (Hudson's were during the middle of the steroid era, to his credit), close to the same number of strikeouts, etc etc etc. Is Tim Hudson even close to being a Hall of Famer? I doubt even one person on this board would say yes. Most would likely say that a pitcher would need to be significantly better than Tim Hudson to even merit HoF consideration. Halladay is a little better but needs to pad those stats considerably to move well beyond and into "sure thing" territory. No way is he there now.

Halladay is really close, to me at least, to both Tim Hudson and CC Sabathia. I think there's a pretty good chance that Sabathia's career will exceed that of Halladay when all is said and done.

How many Cy Young awards and Top 5 finished does Tim Hudson have? How about the postseason stats?