Will Roy Halladay make it to 300 career wins?

[B-Fly]

I presume he spaced on that. Hamels was the only one of the current PHI aces on the 2008 team.

Yep, I spaced on that.

[DJBeasties]

If he doesn't, will he make the HoF?

[heyelander]

I presume he spaced on that. Hamels was the only one of the current PHI aces on the 2008 team.

Blanton was on that team too, but I guess he's not one of the current "aces".

[TS Garp]

If he doesn't, will he make the HoF?

Yes. 2 Cy Youngs and 5 Top 3 finishes, etc.

[Sour Masher]

Yes. 2 Cy Youngs and 5 Top 3 finishes, etc.

Yes, Roy halladay is a HOFer.

[onejayhawk]

If he doesn't, will he make the HoF?

Favorite Toy makes it about 8% to reach 300, finishing with 253 given age=35 and 17% finishing at 262 given age=34. Given that his birthday falls very close to the cut off, I figure an average is appropriate: 13% chance, finishing with 260 wins.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames

Playing with it a little, if he wins 18 this year, he will start next season with with a 14% chance, up from 8%. Add 17 wins in 2013 and it falls to 10%. Add 17 again and he drops to 8%. It is possible he pitches until he's 44, cranking out 10 or 11 wins toward the end, but that is unlikely. Basically, if he is going to have a good shot at 300 wins, he needs another Cy Young caliber season.

HoF? Sure. He isnt a Tom Seaver candidate, like Rocket, but he is solidly in the next level. He could retire now and make it in.

J

[DJBeasties]

I'm not ready to vote him in yet. I really only want the Tom Seaver type guys in there though. I'm sure he gets in but I wouldn't be on the Yes side with him yet.

[Sour Masher]

I'm not ready to vote him in yet. I really only want the Tom Seaver type guys in there though. I'm sure he gets in but I wouldn't be on the Yes side with him yet.

So being arguably the very best pitchers in baseball for several years doesn't make the cut for your HOF? It isn't win totals, surely, that keeps him out. Folks here are to savvy for that. And it can't be longevity. After all, Sandy Koufax won just 165 games. Pedro Martinez won just 219. Surely no sane baseball fan would ever argue that those two should not be slam dunk HOFers. Roy Halladay in his prime wasn't those two guys, but he shared with them the distinction of being called by many the best for awhile with few folks arguing against that title.

Hell 3-4 more years of Verlander being what he has been since 2009, and he's a HoFer too, to me. I want players in the hall who are the very best at what they do, even if not for as long as we'd like (just as long as it is long enough to be sure it is not a fluke). I'd take both of those guys at their best over future HOFer Tom Glavine at his best. That is not to slight Glavine, whose longevity and consistency at a very high level is very impressive.

Of course, the perfect HOF combines greatness with longevity and consistency, but of the two types that fall short, I'd put more of burn brighter for less time guys in my HOF than the burn softer longer guys. I mean, I love Jaime Moyer as much as the next fan, but dear lord, if he somehow hangs on another year or two and gets close enough to 300 wins that talking heads start discussing if he might be a HOFer...ugh.

[DMT]

So being arguably the very best pitchers in baseball for several years doesn't make the cut for your HOF? It isn't win totals, surely, that keeps him out. Folks here are to savvy for that. And it can't be longevity. After all, Sandy Koufax won just 165 games. Pedro Martinez won just 219. Surely no sane baseball fan would ever argue that those two should not be slam dunk HOFers. Roy Halladay in his prime wasn't those two guys, but he shared with them the distinction of being called by many the best for awhile with few folks arguing against that title.

Hell 3-4 more years of Verlander being what he has been since 2009, and he's a HoFer too, to me. I want players in the hall who are the very best at what they do, even if not for as long as we'd like (just as long as it is long enough to be sure it is not a fluke). I'd take both of those guys at their best over future HOFer Tom Glavine at his best. That is not to slight Glavine, whose longevity and consistency at a very high level is very impressive.

Of course, the perfect HOF combines greatness with longevity and consistency, but of the two types that fall short, I'd put more of burn brighter for less time guys in my HOF than the burn softer longer guys. I mean, I love Jaime Moyer as much as the next fan, but dear lord, if he somehow hangs on another year or two and gets close enough to 300 wins that talking heads start discussing if he might be a HOFer...ugh.

There's lots of these types of discussions in the HOE forum fyi.

[onejayhawk]

So being arguably the very best pitchers in baseball for several years doesn't make the cut for your HOF? It isn't win totals, surely, that keeps him out. Folks here are to savvy for that. And it can't be longevity. After all, Sandy Koufax won just 165 games. Pedro Martinez won just 219. Surely no sane baseball fan would ever argue that those two should not be slam dunk HOFers. Roy Halladay in his prime wasn't those two guys, but he shared with them the distinction of being called by many the best for awhile with few folks arguing against that title.

Hell 3-4 more years of Verlander being what he has been since 2009, and he's a HoFer too, to me. I want players in the hall who are the very best at what they do, even if not for as long as we'd like (just as long as it is long enough to be sure it is not a fluke). I'd take both of those guys at their best over future HOFer Tom Glavine at his best. That is not to slight Glavine, whose longevity and consistency at a very high level is very impressive.

Of course, the perfect HOF combines greatness with longevity and consistency, but of the two types that fall short, I'd put more of burn brighter for less time guys in my HOF than the burn softer longer guys. I mean, I love Jaime Moyer as much as the next fan, but dear lord, if he somehow hangs on another year or two and gets close enough to 300 wins that talking heads start discussing if he might be a HOFer...ugh.

That would leave Halladay out. His credentials are weighted toward longevity and consistency.

J

[DJBeasties]

Yeah and I don't personally think comparing Sandy Koufax to Roy Halladay is very fair. Koufax has an accomplishment list a mile long and he is an easy, first-ballot hall of famer.

Pedro is a little bit better comp, but Pedro has some devasting seasons with off the charts ERA+, a World Series, three Cy Youngs, a triple crown, 3100 K's and a sub-3.00 ERA. He was dominance personified in the steroid era.

To me, Pedro is a Hall of Famer. Roy Halladay is close but not there yet IMO.

[wannabegriffey]

Yeah and I don't personally think comparing Sandy Koufax to Roy Halladay is very fair. Koufax has an accomplishment list a mile long and he is an easy, first-ballot hall of famer.

Pedro is a little bit better comp, but Pedro has some devasting seasons with off the charts ERA+, a World Series, three Cy Youngs, a triple crown, 3100 K's and a sub-3.00 ERA. He was dominance personified in the steroid era.

To me, Pedro is a Hall of Famer. Roy Halladay is close but not there yet IMO.

I don't know DJ.

Doc's lowest innings total since 2002, when not injured, is 220 innings.
Top 5 cy young votes every non injured year except 1 (2002 - 240 inn, 19 wins, era under 3.00 and didn't make top 4).
2 cy's.
192 wins to 97 loses.
Lead his league in innings pitched 4 times.
World series can't matter that much in a sport as geared to 'team' as baseball is.
Doc got is done in the a.l. (B)east.
Moved to Philly and took LESS money than market - did c.lee do that or poo-holes or fielder or any borass client, sorry, I digress.

Maybe Doc hasn't been around long enough could/would be my only issue.

[Sour Masher]

That would leave Halladay out. His credentials are weighted toward longevity and consistency.

J

To me, Halladay was arguably the single best pitcher in all of baseball for half a decade. And I haven't checked, but I imagine his park, league, division correccted Toronto stats compare pretty well to HOF comps.

[Judge Jude]

If Halladay was done now (and he isn't), it would be awkward for Koufax-lovers.
Sure, Koufax's peak is better, even park-adjusted and playing era-adjusted, but Halladay's prime is right there (Koufax only has six seasons worth talking about).

If Koufax is an all-time inner-circle great, then it's impossible to say Halladay isn't even a Hall of Famer. Halladay even has the "cool stuff" to boot, like those no-hitters.

[DJBeasties]

Koufax' resume is padded much higher than Halladay's. I know Halladay has the postseason no-hitter and obviously 2010 was studly but just look at Koufax list:

7× All-Star (1961, 1961², 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966)
4× World Series champion (1955, 1959, 1963, 1965)
3× Cy Young Award (1963, 1965, 1966)
NL MVP (1963)
2× World Series MVP (1963, 1965)
2× Babe Ruth Award (1963, 1965)
3× Triple Crown (1963, 1965, 1966)
Hutch Award (1966)
Pitched four no-hitters
Pitched a perfect game on September 9, 1965


How does Doc stack against that? He doesn't. The thing I love about these discussions is that difference in opinions and where hair splits occur and lines are drawn in the sand.

Also, definitely if you haven't already get in on the voting in the HoE forum. The more input and discussion the more validity these results will have.

Thanks for the points/counterpoints.