Will Roy Halladay make it to 300 career wins?

[TS Garp]

He's currently at 189 (likely 190 after tonight's game) and he's turning 35 next month. A lot of it depends on how long he wants to pitch and how long his arm will hold up. It would help his cause a great deal if he could mix in a couple of 22-24 win seasons over the next 3 years.

Do you think he gets there? It's certainly not an easy milestone to reach.

[JudeBaldo]

I hope he does. He's an easy player to cheer for. But I don't think he will. The math seems daunting.

[Erik]

I don't see him getting the kind of run support he needs for ridiculous win totals. If he has a freakish Nolan Ryan type longevity, then he should get there, but barring that, no.

[Sour Masher]

The math is daunting, and he got a late start, but he's in great shape now and dedicated to his craft. I think he is capable of being great for another 3-4 years, barring injury, which, of course, can derail his chances entirely) before father time really starts sapping him of his greatness, which should get him close enough that he'll have to decide if he wants to hang on for another couple of years after that to get to that number, even if it means pitching at a much lower level. I certainly think he is capable of crawling across the finish line if that is what he wants.

I voted just barely, because I think his elite years will get him close enough that he'll see that number as a goal he won't want to walk away from. It will be one last thing to achieve that pushes him on even as he fades from ace to back end veteran.

I can just hear the voice in his head dismiss the doubt as his career fades, "hell, if Jaime Moyer can still pitch as a member of AARP, I can do it for a little while longer."

[TS Garp]

Barring a catastrophic injury or just the complete inability to stay healthy for an extended amount of time, I think he gets there if he wants to get there. A guy like Mussina probably could have hit 300 (he won 20 in his last season) but decided to go out on top and call it quits, whereas a player like Glavine was motivated to hit the milestone and was willing to stay around as long as it took him to get there (and as long as someone would have him). Not saying that's a bad thing -- just a different style or philosophy.

If Halladay wins the following number of games at these ages, he'll get there (this is rough, but you get the idea) --

35: 21
36: 19
37: 17
38: 16
39: 15
40: 12
41: 12

I think he can do it, but it'll be interesting to see.

[Judge Jude]

"a player like Glavine was motivated to hit the milestone and was willing to stay around as long as it took him to get there (and as long as someone would have him)."

actually, Glavine's career ERA+ was 118. In the three years before he approached 300 wins, he had ERA+s of 119, 116, and 114. that got him to 290 wins. should he have retired at that point? is there any team in baseball that wouldn't have him at that point?

in 2007, Glavine went 13-8 to reach 303 career wins, with a meh 97 ERA+. virtually every team does not have a fivesome better than that.
in 2008, Glavine pitched 63 lousy innings for the Braves, then quit.

[TranaGreg]

Barring a catastrophic injury or just the complete inability to stay healthy for an extended amount of time, I think he gets there if he wants to get there. A guy like Mussina probably could have hit 300 (he won 20 in his last season) but decided to go out on top and call it quits, whereas a player like Glavine was motivated to hit the milestone and was willing to stay around as long as it took him to get there (and as long as someone would have him). Not saying that's a bad thing -- just a different style or philosophy.

If Halladay wins the following number of games at these ages, he'll get there (this is rough, but you get the idea) --

35: 21
36: 19
37: 17
38: 16
39: 15
40: 12
41: 12

I think he can do it, but it'll be interesting to see.

I was going to say no, but your breakdown makes me think maybe. Having watched him for years here in Toronto, no player has a more rigid & thorough pre-game regimen ... if anyone can pitch effectively into his early 40's it should be doc ... so I'm changing my opinion & saying yes.

[revo]

I don't see him pitching to age 42 or so, which means he likely won't get there. Too bad his age 22-26 seasons were trying years, as he would've been a shoo-in for it.

[Judge Jude]

Halladay's path so far seems fairly typical for 300-game winners, not to say that it will be easy.

There seems to be a misconception among some baseball fans that if you don't get to 150 wins by age 30, how will you ever make it?

But that's not how it has worked at all, for the most part.

[TS Garp]

"a player like Glavine was motivated to hit the milestone and was willing to stay around as long as it took him to get there (and as long as someone would have him)."

actually, Glavine's career ERA+ was 118. In the three years before he approached 300 wins, he had ERA+s of 119, 116, and 114. that got him to 290 wins. should he have retired at that point? is there any team in baseball that wouldn't have him at that point?

in 2007, Glavine went 13-8 to reach 303 career wins, with a meh 97 ERA+. virtually every team does not have a fivesome better than that.
in 2008, Glavine pitched 63 lousy innings for the Braves, then quit.

You're making my point. He became very content to be nothing more than a league-average starter. He was consistently in the 120-140 range (with a couple of bad years sprinkled in) until 2003. Then, his stuff fell off, and, while he wasn't horrendous, he was clearly pitching with diminished skills and getting inferior results than he had been before. Again, I'm not condemning it, but other guys don't want to take that route to 300 wins and it's unclear whether Halladay would be comfortable that way.

[cavebird]

"a player like Glavine was motivated to hit the milestone and was willing to stay around as long as it took him to get there (and as long as someone would have him)."

actually, Glavine's career ERA+ was 118. In the three years before he approached 300 wins, he had ERA+s of 119, 116, and 114. that got him to 290 wins. should he have retired at that point? is there any team in baseball that wouldn't have him at that point?

in 2007, Glavine went 13-8 to reach 303 career wins, with a meh 97 ERA+. virtually every team does not have a fivesome better than that.
in 2008, Glavine pitched 63 lousy innings for the Braves, then quit.

Actually, Glavine pitched 63 lousy innings for the Braves in 2008, then got hurt. He then spent two months rehabbing in the minors in 2009, only to be released when it was time for him to return because of the obvious yet cruel fact that calling up Tommy Hanson was a much better move for the Braves to make. Glavine then quit.

[cavebird]

You're making my point. He became very content to be nothing more than a league-average starter. He was consistently in the 120-140 range (with a couple of bad years sprinkled in) until 2003. Then, his stuff fell off, and, while he wasn't horrendous, he was clearly pitching with diminished skills and getting inferior results than he had been before. Again, I'm not condemning it, but other guys don't want to take that route to 300 wins and it's unclear whether Halladay would be comfortable that way.

That's a bit harsh, no? Most great pitchers continue when they are merely good but still slightly above league average whether they are approaching 300 wins or not. I can't think of many who walked away when they were still great except for injury concerns (e.g. Koufax). Can you?

[Fresno Bob]

Barring a catastrophic injury or just the complete inability to stay healthy for an extended amount of time, I think he gets there if he wants to get there. A guy like Mussina probably could have hit 300 (he won 20 in his last season) but decided to go out on top and call it quits, whereas a player like Glavine was motivated to hit the milestone and was willing to stay around as long as it took him to get there (and as long as someone would have him). Not saying that's a bad thing -- just a different style or philosophy.

If Halladay wins the following number of games at these ages, he'll get there (this is rough, but you get the idea) --

35: 21
36: 19
37: 17
38: 16
39: 15
40: 12
41: 12

I think he can do it, but it'll be interesting to see.

Can is very different than will....if he averages 18 wins a year for the next three years, he's got to average 15 wins for the next 4 after that. Basically you are suggesting he won't do more than 3 15 day DL stints in the next 7 years. The Phillies are on their way down, not up, so I think that will make it even tougher

[B-Fly]

That's a bit harsh, no? Most great pitchers continue when they are merely good but still slightly above league average whether they are approaching 300 wins or not. I can't think of many who walked away when they were still great except for injury concerns (e.g. Koufax). Can you?

Mussina retired at age 39 after a 200 IP, 20-9 season with a 3.37 ERA, 1.223 WHIP and 150:31 K:BB. He finished with 270 career wins and very probably could have gotten a great two-year contract with player option for a third year to secure 300, but he chose not to do so.

[TS Garp]

Mussina retired at age 39 after a 200 IP, 20-9 season with a 3.37 ERA, 1.223 WHIP and 150:31 K:BB. He finished with 270 career wins and very probably could have gotten a great two-year contract with player option for a third year to secure 300, but he chose not to do so.

That's exactly who I was going to cite. He retired after a great bounce-back season and definitely could have pitched longer. And, hey, how about vintage draft favorite Tom Henke!