2k12: Over/Under Confidence picks (by MLB team)

[hacko]

10- cleveland -under
9 minn - under
8 St louis - over
7. houston - over
6. dodgers - over
5. S. Fran - under
4. colorado - over
3. boston - under
2. texas - over
1, Det over

[DMT]

I did so well last year, gotta give it another go.

10. CHICAGO CUBS 74.5 - UNDER
9. DETROIT 92.5 - OVER
8. LA ANGELS 92.5 - OVER
7. ARIZONA 86 - OVER
6. NY METS 70.5 - UNDER
5. TAMPA BAY 87 - OVER
4. ATLANTA 87.5 - OVER
3. CHICAGO WS 74 - UNDER
2. PHILADELPHIA 92.5 - UNDER
1. SAN FRANCISCO 87.5 - UNDER

Burnett ERA: 4.51

I've changed a few of the ranks but the teams are still the same I picked before Opening Day (and none were affected by games already played).

[Fresno Bob]

bump to see how people are doing at the turn

[revo]

10 - CHICAGO WS 74 - OVER -- on pace for 90
9 - NY METS 70.5 - OVER -- on pace for 84
8 - PITTSBURGH 73 - OVER -- on pace for 90
7 - SAN FRANCISCO 87.5 - UNDER -- on pace for 89
6 - ST. LOUIS 82.5 - OVER -- on pace for 84
5 - CLEVELAND 86.5 - UNDER -- on pace for 83
4 - MILWAUKEE 83.5 - OVER -- on pace for 77
3 - MINNESOTA 75 - OVER -- on pace for 66
2 - BOSTON 89.5 - OVER -- on pace for 82
1 - MIAMI 84.5 - OVER -- on pace for 77

50-50 so far, but at least the 5 right so far are in my top 6 for points and my top 3 are slam dunks.

[rhd]

Pretty good so far:

+10 - 10 Cle - Under 86.5 (on pace for 80)
+9 - 9 Min - Under 75 (on pace for 68)
+0 - 8 Mil - Over 83.5 (on pace for 76)
+7 - 7 Oak - Over 71 (on pace for 87)
+6 - 6 KC - Under 80.5 (on pace for 69)
+5 - 5 Col - Under 82 (on pace for 62)
+4 - 4 StL - Over 82.5 (on pace for 85)
+0 - 3 TB - Over 87 (on pace for 83)
+0 - 2 Atl - Under 87.5 (on pace for 89)
+0 - 1 SF - Under 87.5 (on pace for 90)
----
+41

3.59 - AJ Burnett - 4.89 ERA

On most of the hi confidence picks, I'm way ahead. The 1 I'm farthest off on is Milwaukee. I just didnt see them falling this far. On the tiebreak, I'm likely to lose, as I didnt see Burnett improving this much at all. He's a big reason for Pittsburgh's success, which must be scary if you're a Pirates fan.

[joncarlos]

OK, here's what I've got:

10. Cubs under 74.5
9. Dodgers under 81
8. Indians under 86.5
7. Marlins over 84.5
6. Phillies over 92.5
5. Rays over 87
4. Astros under 64
3. Angels over 92.5
2. Giants over 87.5
1. Reds over 86.5

tiebreaker - AJ ERA 4.30

Giants, Reds, Astros, Cubs, Indians look good

Rays, Dodgers are iffy

Angels, probably not

Phillies, Marlins... oy vey

[Don Quixote]

10 Pittsburgh over 73 Made it
9 Arizona over 86 Need them to go 9-1 therefore very doubtful
8 Yankees over 93.5 Need 6-4, very doable but I won't be upset if they don't get there
7 Oakland under 71 Blew that one big time, props to the players, Melvin, and Bright Billy in that order
6 Dodgers under 81 Close but it looks like another miss
5 Mets under 70.5 Need two more wins for another miss for me
4 Cubs under 74.5 Fish in a barrel
3 Houston under 64 Piece of cake
2 Tampa Bay over 87 Need 5-4 to get this one
1 St. Louis over 82.5 One more win will do it

Burnett ERA 4.05 He's at 3.64, I'm not exactly upset about it

[Don Quixote]

JC, did you notice that we're both pretty good at guessing about the teams in our "local" division and not so good away from it?

[joncarlos]

RJ is most optimistic about:

1. Pittsburgh +3.33
2. Washington +3.17
3. Milwaukee +2.56
4. Tampa Bay +2.00
5. Miami +1.94

RJ is most pessimistic about:

30. Cleveland -3.72
29. Chi Cubs -2.28
28. NY Mets -2.22
27. LA Dodgers -1.89
26. Minnesota -1.28

Pirates - correct
Nats - correct
Brewers - incorrect (missed by 1/2 a win)
Rays - correct
Marlins - oops

Indians - correct
Cubs - correct
Mets - incorrect
Dodgers - incorrect
Twins - correct

6 out of 10... but when you pay the vig and the interest on losing your cash for 6 months, maybe not worth it.

[DMT]

I'm terrible at this.

10. CHICAGO CUBS 74.5 - UNDER
9. DETROIT 92.5 - OVER
8. LA ANGELS 92.5 - OVER
7. ARIZONA 86 - OVER
6. NY METS 70.5 - UNDER
5. TAMPA BAY 87 - OVER
4. ATLANTA 87.5 - OVER
3. CHICAGO WS 74 - UNDER
2. PHILADELPHIA 92.5 - UNDER
1. SAN FRANCISCO 87.5 - UNDER

[Judge Jude]

6 out of 10... but when you pay the vig and the interest on losing your cash for 6 months, maybe not worth it.

what is this "interest" that you speak of? I am intrigued, and wish to subscribe to your newsletter

[joncarlos]

And the winner is...

1. Stephen... 44 points, 4.23 ERA
2. RHD .... 44 points, 4.89 ERA
3. Boone... 43 points
4. Bigjonempire.... 42 points

Second Tier
5. Davros... 39 points
6. Revo ... 38 points, 4.35 ERA
7. Hacko... 38 points, no ERA prediction
8. TyWebb004... 37 points

Third Tier

9. ElDiablo505... 35 points
10. Dannahan... 34 points
11. Andrewski... 33 points
12. Joncarlos... 30 points

Worse than me

Everyone else

[joncarlos]

what is this "interest" that you speak of? I am intrigued, and wish to subscribe to your newsletter

Well, back in the old days, it used to be that you could buy something called a "CD" and get paid back 2-3% more than you invested at the end of a 6-month period (say, like April 1st to October 1st).

I think you could also put them into your car stereo, I'm not sure.

So let's say you invested $120 into the top 10 RJ picks at an average vig of -120. That's an outlay of $1200. You'd cash 6, for $600 plus your initial $720, walking away with $1320 or a profit of $120.

Now, you wouldn't get 10% interest on a CD, but you could have bought 2 shares of AAPL for $601 on April 2nd and sold them for $671 on October 1, giving you a net profit of $140. Assuming $10/trade, you would have made the same profit of $120.

[Fresno Bob]

TEAM 2012 SEASON O/U

10 over - SF 87.5
9 over - MIL 83.5
8 over - KC 80.5
7 over - STL 82.5
6 over - WASH 82.5
5 over - SD 73.5
4 under - LA DODGERS 81
3 over - PITTS 73
2 over - OAK 71
1 under - METS 70.5

AJ Burnett ERA - 4.57

I show myself at 33....

[Davros]

Sorry to join the recount bandwagon, but I am counting up 46 points for myself instead of 39. Not sure what the disconnect is here (though I certainly could be making a math mistake in my calculations).

10 - PITTSBURGH 73 -Over (79)
9 - CLEVELAND 86.5 - Under (68)
8 - SAN FRANCISCO 87.5 - Under (94)
7 - LA ANGELS 92.5 - Under (89)
6 - SEATTLE 72 - Over (75)
5 - KANSAS CITY 80.5 - Under (72)
4 - SAN DIEGO 73.5 - Over (76)
3 - WASHINGTON 82.5 - Over (98)
2 - BOSTON 89.5 - Under (69)
1 - HOUSTON 64 - Over (55)

A.J. Burnett: 4.89 ERA