Perfect storm in my NL only league. Need some thoughts?

[Ryno84MVP]

I'm a lot more confident in Tulo and Votto than HanRam. That being said, if you're sure your big four above are going to cost $235 combined, that's going to leave you and maybe one other person with some serious cash when HanRam and Howard come up, not to mention Quentin, McCann, and Cuddyer (who I really like in Coors this year).

Gregg, this is the reason that your numbers just don't add up. Without even factoring what quality pitching might also be available, there are going to be some major bargains if your big four really go anywhere close to the salaries you are talking about.

[Lucky]

I throw them both back. I'd take Kemp gladly at $65, given your circumstances. I'd take Votto at $60, just a little less happily than Kemp at $65. After those two, I'd take Tulo or Upton.

No way I'd keep Howard or Ramirez at those prices. With a strong keeper list, you want to limit risk, even if it means paying a lot for your top guy.

In my mixed league, Kemp is about right at $65 with our inflation factor, which is right at 35%.

[Ryno84MVP]

Not necessarily. Cheap farm keepers and lots of guaranteed contracts can result in crazy prices like this league-wide. It happens in our NL only quite often. Sure, there are a few good buys here and there but no real "major bargains." You still have to go after the players you want. Without knowing all the particulars and who exactly will be available, it sounds to me like Bucky is right when he says to go hard after Votto.

Just don't be that guy with a $32 Nick Punto, or the equivalent.

It sucks to have to pay big bucks, but if you have a specific need just go for it.

I understand how it "could" happen, but given what he has described (one guy is going in with $169 and one is going in with $164. Then $127 and $90. The rest will have somewhere between 60 and 40), after the big four (Kemp, Upton, Tulo, Votto) plus Hanley and Howard go, presumably to the four teams with money, everyone is left with $40 to $60 with at least some good hitting options on the board (he mentioned Werth, Cuddyer and Melky, and there are surely others like Kubel) plus some very good $20-30 pitchers. He seems too focused on the getting a "big" gun at all costs when his focus (given his limited budget even without keeping Howard) should be on getting the value players. If he is right and the studs go for crazy prices, then the rest of the auction will play right into his hands (i.e. unless his keeper list is crazy good, he's probably better off with Werth and Kubel for $50 combined than just Votto and a $1 bum).

[chancellor]

Gregg, this is the reason that your numbers just don't add up. Without even factoring what quality pitching might also be available, there are going to be some major bargains if your big four really go anywhere close to the salaries you are talking about.

I'm not sure - with 15 keepers + 6 rookies (if I read right) in a NL only Ultra league, there may not be much out there in terms of pitching. That being said, I'd still rather have the $78, and decide whether to go big for one of the big four, or whether to target a couple of lesser but still good talents and have a little cash left over for leverage during dollar days.

[Ryno84MVP]

I'm not sure - with 15 keepers + 6 rookies (if I read right) in a NL only Ultra league, there may not be much out there in terms of pitching. That being said, I'd still rather have the $78, and decide whether to go big for one of the big four, or whether to target a couple of lesser but still good talents and have a little cash left over for leverage during dollar days.

What if the following pitchers were also available: Kershaw, Lincecum, Daniel Hudson, Gio Gonzalez, Cueto, Chris Carpenter, Papelbon, Axford, Madson, Street and maybe Cliff Lee.

Would that change your opinion?

[chancellor]

What if the following pitchers were also available: Kershaw, Lincecum, Daniel Hudson, Gio Gonzalez, Cueto, Chris Carpenter, Papelbon, Axford, Madson, Street and maybe Cliff Lee.

Would that change your opinion?

I'd definitely want max cash then, which I believe is $78 for Gregg.

P.S. - Sent you a PM about the AL only mock.

[Gregg]

What if the following pitchers were also available: Kershaw, Lincecum, Daniel Hudson, Gio Gonzalez, Cueto, Chris Carpenter, Papelbon, Axford, Madson, Street and maybe Cliff Lee.

Would that change your opinion?

There will certainly be some good pitching available.

The guy with 169 needs 3 pitchers. He has Hamels Marcum and Wandy already. I actually believe he is the one that will end up with Kemp.

I think 164 guy buys one stud on offense and one stud pitcher.

Thanks for all of the input. It is very good food for thought.

Bucky check your pm.

[schlesinj]

Frankly, this is going to be a discussion for almost every NL keeper league this year. We have seen lots of turnover on closers like Betecourt, Kimbrell (rookie contracts in many leagues), etc, so saves are cheap on lots of teams, plus the loss of some of the big boppers (Pujols/Fielder), some typical rookie contracts on guys like Harper so some high priced guys like Kemp are going to go for crazy prices since he is the one of the only studs available. This is going to be the perfect storm for interesting NL auctions.

[swampdragon]

Frankly, this is going to be a discussion for almost every NL keeper league this year. We have seen lots of turnover on closers like Betecourt, Kimbrell (rookie contracts in many leagues), etc, so saves are cheap on lots of teams, plus the loss of some of the big boppers (Pujols/Fielder), some typical rookie contracts on guys like Harper so some high priced guys like Kemp are going to go for crazy prices since he is the one of the only studs available. This is going to be the perfect storm for interesting NL auctions.

agreed - so that I why I am trying to pry away a $48 Kemp from an owner.

I also plan on buying a high $ guy - Votto/Wright/Zimmerman/CarGo right out of the gate- there will be owners stuck with money (or spending too much on latish round players)

[Gregg]

That was my plan when I traded for a $34 Howard (who I was convinced would be back opening day to two weeks late).

This newest development/set back has changed things. I think trying to force Hanley on to my roster may have been my stubborness to admit defeat on a bad off season decision.

Thanks for all of the input.

[BuckyBuckner]

That was my plan when I traded for a $34 Howard (who I was convinced would be back opening day to two weeks late).

This newest development/set back has changed things. I think trying to force Hanley on to my roster may have been my stubborness to admit defeat on a bad off season decision.

Thanks for all of the input.

Good luck with it and let us know how you did. I tried to respond to your PM but your inbox is full.

[Gregg]

Good luck with it and let us know how you did. I tried to respond to your PM but your inbox is full.

I took care of that inbox full issue.