2K12: Lorenzo Cain

[onejayhawk]

Cain is one of the Royals young guns. He is a true CF, and will play based on his defense. While he is a speed guy, he does have some pop, so he could get 10 HR with every day play, even in the Royals tough HR park, plus 20+ SB.

The real question is where in the lineup he will hit. Melky Cabrera had a huge season for them last year, but he is now sitting on the dock of the Bay. He hit 2nd, between LHH Gordon and Hosmer. Cain could inherit the spot. Or Cain could bat lead off. I lean to #2, to put the RHH between the 2 lefties.

Normally, Bill James is optomistic, but I might go even better. Lead off another 50 PA, 10 R and 10 SB. #2 add 30 PA and 10 RBI.

Bill James: 573 PA, .284, 10HR, 22 SB, 73 R, 58 RBI.

J

[Hornsby]

I'm still not convinced at all that he gets the job...they really like the defense and speed that Dyson brings to the table. I certainly wouldn't give him anything near 600 PA's at this point...

[DJBeasties]

Well, his MLEs don't translate to even rostering him in any mixed leagues if it holds true. He has a bad BB/K ratio and he's a decent grounball hitter so I can't really see why KC would want that deadweight in the 2-hole with little pop and no-onbase ability. He looks like a 9-hitter to me. He might be good for 30 SBs and a .250 BA, but I'm not really inspired by his PCL-inflated BA.

Meh.

[onejayhawk]

Well, his MLEs don't translate to even rostering him in any mixed leagues if it holds true. He has a bad BB/K ratio and he's a decent grounball hitter so I can't really see why KC would want that deadweight in the 2-hole with little pop and no-onbase ability. He looks like a 9-hitter to me. He might be good for 30 SBs and a .250 BA, but I'm not really inspired by his PCL-inflated BA.

Meh.

Meh back. He may be in the PCL, but it is the American Conference, which plays its ball in the Midwest, not at high altitude.
Here are the actual MLE, Omaha to KC:

http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/mlecalc

471 AB, .285/.343/.436, 12 HR, 62 R, 64 RBI, 18 SB

They are shaving a hair off his slash line in the projections, but giving him more AB.

J

[Moonlight J]

PECOTA has Cain at .268/.320/.376 with 6 HR & 12 steals

[DJBeasties]

Meh back. He may be in the PCL, but it is the American Conference, which plays its ball in the Midwest, not at high altitude.
Here are the actual MLE, Omaha to KC:

http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/mlecalc

471 AB, .285/.343/.436, 12 HR, 62 R, 64 RBI, 18 SB

They are shaving a hair off his slash line in the projections, but giving him more AB.

J

Ha, well I'll be interested to see how it turns out. I don't think we are doing the same calculation. I used your link, took the AAA data from 2011 and got back:

.268 BA
.324 OBP
.413 SLG
12 HRs
12 SBs
62 RBI (not if he's hitting 9th)
64 Runs
30/110 BB/K (0.27 EYE)

If that's how it translates, there is almost no chance they hit him consistently at the top of the order and it's even more likely that if he can't sustain an elevated hit rate at the Major League level, he'll be right back in Omaha. He does have going for him the fact that the Royals don't have a real leadoff hitter (Alex Gordon?) and Johnny Giavotella is also unproven so if Cain can get going early, he will probably get a shot in a lineup spot that will make him valuable.

Giavotella has some speed too so it's a lot of question marks and possibility.

[chancellor]

Unless you believe Cain stole Melky Cabrera's Jobu before he left, I'd stay away from him at anything except bargain prices.

[onejayhawk]

Ha, well I'll be interested to see how it turns out. I don't think we are doing the same calculation. I used your link, took the AAA data from 2011 and got back:

.268 BA
.324 OBP
.413 SLG
12 HRs
12 SBs
62 RBI (not if he's hitting 9th)
64 Runs
30/110 BB/K (0.27 EYE)

If that's how it translates, there is almost no chance they hit him consistently at the top of the order and it's even more likely that if he can't sustain an elevated hit rate at the Major League level, he'll be right back in Omaha. He does have going for him the fact that the Royals don't have a real leadoff hitter (Alex Gordon?) and Johnny Giavotella is also unproven so if Cain can get going early, he will probably get a shot in a lineup spot that will make him valuable.

Giavotella has some speed too so it's a lot of question marks and possibility.

Did you do generic, or city to city? Also, make sure you do the HBP. It is a significant npart of Cain's OBA.

[DJBeasties]

Did you do generic, or city to city? Also, make sure you do the HBP. It is a significant npart of Cain's OBA.

Yes, I did Omaha to Kansas City with his 15 (ridiculous) HBP.

[joncarlos]

PECOTA has Cain at .268/.320/.376 with 6 HR & 12 steals

Yeah, I'm a lot more inclined to believe that triple slash, but I think he ends up with more like 25-30 steals and 2-3 HR. I do think he gets a significant chunk of the PT in CF, but does a lot of his hitting in the 9 hole. I think the Royals will let him run but I don't think the HRs translate as a rookie. He could post one of the worst RBI/AB ratios we've seen in a long time.

[dslaw]

SInce he was part of the Greinke trade I think that buys him some slack and keeps him in the lineup as KC tries to prove he is good. I agree with most people here that the extra playing time won't translate into much except maybe some steals. I would think somewhere around 5 HRs max and 20-25 steals.

[BigJonEmpire]

In a 12-team AL-only with standard rosters, how much would you pay for Cain? I'm thinking mid-teens but in my leagues the speed guys tend to be over priced.

[SlideRule]

I'm in a 10-team AL only, and I'm debating keeping him at 7. Of course, I'd have him at that price for '12 and potentially '13 if he's worth keeping that long. My guess is he goes for around 10ish, maybe a bit higher due to the prospect hype but not over 15.

[DJBeasties]

In a 12-team AL-only with standard rosters, how much would you pay for Cain? I'm thinking mid-teens but in my leagues the speed guys tend to be over priced.

$12 is what I'd say assuming redraft.

[SlideRule]

CBS pegs Cain at $17, and Montero at $14 for AL onlys. For mixed it's interestingly different: Montero $12, Cain $4. Do you all agree that Cain is a better fantasy option for 2012 than Montero in SEA (for comparable prices)?

For some reason I see Julio Borbon all over again with Cain, except that Borbon kinda came out of nowhere while Cain is actually a prospect.