RHD's Top 150 Roto Prospects (with writeups!) ('Pre-BA Top 100' version)

[Porcello]

Highlighted the ones that I'm not eye to eye with you on, curious on your comments.

9 Anthony Gose OF Tor 0 9
12 Jake Marisnick OF Tor 1 13 - both of these Jays just seem waaaay too high. What am I missing?
14 Rymer Liriano OF SD 0 14 - moderate power and a lot of speed right now that projects to decrease as his body fills out. Not seeing the upside here?
17 Brett Jackson OF CHC -1 16 - same upside issue here too, at absolute best I'm seeing Victorino
19 Billy Hamilton SS Cin -1 18 - does he have a tool other than speed?
43 Yonder Alonso 1B SD 30 73 - San Diego is where non Adrian Gonzalez left handed power goes to die, I just can't see 20+ HR's here
48 Starling Marte OF Pit -4 44 - I can't justify anywhere near this high with those K's
52 Kolten Wong 2B StL 54 106 - modest power and modest speed, upside...Neil Walker? 52 just seems too high.
56 Francisco Lindor SS Cle -10 46 - similar to Wong, where's the ceiling?
59 Trevor May SP Phi -21 38 - maybe I'm missing something here but I see #3 pitcher and that's about it
63 Tyler Pastornicky SS Atl 32 95 - probably an avg liability with no power, only modest speed too. Don't see this high...
76 Wily Peralta SP Mil 21 97 - similar to May
89 Zack Cox 3B StL -9 80 - looking at the guys around him I'm curious why you have this low
94 A.J. Pollock OF Ari -26 68 - notably this guy, do you see anything above a 4th OF? I don't.
124 Vinnie Catricala 3B Sea 15 139 - seems way too low, still has some ?'s but heart of the order and 25+ HR's looks legit
126 Domingo Santana OF Hou 7 133 - young but incredible ceiling, you're going to have to wait here but would you rather do that or get a no upside guy like Pastornicky?
129 Christian Villanueva 3B Tex -20 109 - similar story as Catricala
136 Francisco Martinez 3B Sea -40 96 - him too
148 Ronald Guzman 1B Tex -20 128 - and another
149 Elier Hernandez OF KC -20 129 - ok, one more

Don't let the baove deter you, great GREAT stuff! Just wanted to highlight disagreements and get some feedback. I'm still somewhat new going this deep, so I'm learning.

[cardboardbox]

Highlighted the ones that I'm not eye to eye with you on, curious on your comments.

56 Francisco Lindor SS Cle -10 46 - similar to Wong, where's the ceiling

I read comments on project prospect that they wouldnt be surprised if Lindor was top 10 next year.

[Porcello]

I read comments on project prospect that they wouldnt be surprised if Lindor was top 10 next year.

Given his power and speed profile he's going to need to be a 300/370 type to justify anything close to that. As is I think he looks a lot more like Yunel Escobar than anyone else. His value lies more with the glove than the bat.

[cardboardbox]

Given his power and speed profile he's going to need to be a 300/370 type to justify anything close to that. As is I think he looks a lot more like Yunel Escobar than anyone else. His value lies more with the glove than the bat.

Law thinks he's a four tool guy who will post good sb number but only 10-15 hr/yr unless he unexpectedly grows some more. Also:

"Lindor plays with a ton of energy and gets good marks all around for his makeup, making him a likely candidate to jump into the top 20 after his full-season debut in 2012."

[Porcello]

Law thinks he's a four tool guy who will post good sb number but only 10-15 hr/yr unless he unexpectedly grows some more. Also:

"Lindor plays with a ton of energy and gets good marks all around for his makeup, making him a likely candidate to jump into the top 20 after his full-season debut in 2012."

I'm still not seeing how this is a top 20 guy, 10-15 HR potential and might develop into a decent base stealer. How can you be that high of a fantasy prospect without power and speed? Real prospect, I get, supposedly this guy is a great defender. Fantasy? Still not following.

[cardboardbox]

I'm still not seeing how this is a top 20 guy, 10-15 HR potential and might develop into a decent base stealer. How can you be that high of a fantasy prospect without power and speed? Real prospect, I get, supposedly this guy is a great defender. Fantasy? Still not following.

projected .300 12 hr 35 sb at SS would be a nice fantasy prospect.

[rhd]

Porcello, thanx for your response. It will take me some time to appropriately address the players you listed in your post. I will be busy the next couple days, but I'll try to get to it shortly after that.

[Porcello]

projected .300 12 hr 35 sb at SS would be a nice fantasy prospect.

If you see that speed potential then I see where you're coming from, just not sure what Law's seeing that others aren't because I've only read avg speed most places...but what about the avg? I'm sure he has a 300 avg potential, most prospects his age do, but are you (or is Law) expecting that?

Porcello, thanx for your response. It will take me some time to appropriately address the players you listed in your post. I will be busy the next couple days, but I'll try to get to it shortly after that.

No rush, I know I gave you a lot of work

[wannabegriffey]

rhd, I understand your roto faith is much lower in minor league catchers than other positions, and I agree, it should be. That said, I came across a first year catcher in the Cleveland organization with a very good bb rate, bb:k rate and showed power (23 doubles, 7 hr) in half a season. His final season of ncaa ball, he hit 24 hr.

Do you think Jake Lowery is a worth while speculation pick in an a.l. only ultra league format. Obviously, if he keeps hitting and walking the way he did in A-, he'll be on the public radar soon enough but you are the guru of prospects, maybe you can give us some info I can't gleen from the b-r pages...

[Porcello]

rhd, I understand your roto faith is much lower in minor league catchers than other positions, and I agree, it should be. That said, I came across a first year catcher in the Cleveland organization with a very good bb rate, bb:k rate and showed power (23 doubles, 7 hr) in half a season. His final season of ncaa ball, he hit 24 hr.

Do you think Jake Lowery is a worth while speculation pick in an a.l. only ultra league format. Obviously, if he keeps hitting and walking the way he did in A-, he'll be on the public radar soon enough but you are the guru of prospects, maybe you can give us some info I can't gleen from the b-r pages...

His problem is Chun Chen.

[Judge Jude]

Question before I list who my top availables are: What guys do not appear on prospect lists, but still qualify as rookies in leagues like mine where you're still eligible if short of more than 130 MLB AB or 50 MLB IP, even if service time would knock you out? Edwin Sanchez, STL RP, seems like a good example.
Or guys who aren't awesome, but may be near a chance? like Mets CF Kirk Niewenhuis, who could be up very soon with Torres injury.
Or guys nearer bottom of lists but closer to a good chance, like Dodgers P Eovaldi.

Anyway, this is ranked by consensus of HQ, BA, MLB, FanGr, BP (other studs not listed are gone already):
1. D Pomeranz
2. A Bradley
3. C Martinez
4. T May
5. R Liriano
6. J Bell
7. O Taveras
8. J Gyorko
9. W Peralta
10. J Baez
11. N Eovaldi
12. A Webster
13. A Simmons

(Erlin, Wong, Wieland, T Jenkins, J Bradley, Biddle on some but not others)

Any of those climb a lot or sink a lot since lists were made in some cases months ago?

Gracias!

I pick 9, 18, and 19, but I guarantee some of those 13 guys will be on the board even at 19 given the diversity of selections after the top 5 or 6 every year.

I expect 1-2 to be Pomeranz-Eovaldi based on who is picking....

[rhd]

Question before I list who my top availables are: What guys do not appear on prospect lists, but still qualify as rookies in leagues like mine where you're still eligible if short of more than 130 MLB AB or 50 MLB IP, even if service time would knock you out? Edwin Sanchez, STL RP, seems like a good example.
Or guys who aren't awesome, but may be near a chance? like Mets CF Kirk Niewenhuis, who could be up very soon with Torres injury.
Or guys nearer bottom of lists but closer to a good chance, like Dodgers P Eovaldi.

Anyway, this is ranked by consensus of HQ, BA, MLB, FanGr, BP (other studs not listed are gone already):
1. D Pomeranz
2. A Bradley
3. C Martinez
4. T May
5. R Liriano
6. J Bell
7. O Taveras
8. J Gyorko
9. W Peralta
10. J Baez
11. N Eovaldi
12. A Webster
13. A Simmons

(Erlin, Wong, Wieland, T Jenkins, J Bradley, Biddle on some but not others)

Any of those climb a lot or sink a lot since lists were made in some cases months ago?

Gracias!

I pick 9, 18, and 19, but I guarantee some of those 13 guys will be on the board even at 19 given the diversity of selections after the top 5 or 6 every year.

I expect 1-2 to be Pomeranz-Eovaldi based on who is picking....

Thanx for the response, Judge Jude.

Well, it's a little hard to make recommendations w/o knowing who's available in your league, but I'll try. If amateurs and foreign players are eligible in your league, I would definitely target guys like B Buxton, D Marrero, M Appel, M Zunino, J Soler, A Despaigne. I plan to pick Buxton in my upcoming draft. People are saying he's even better than B Starling. It's an AL-only league and Houston is moving to the AL next year so I am virtually guaranteed an AL club will get him because the next 4 picks after Houston are all AL clubs. Same thing possibly w Appel and Zunino. With the others tho, there's the risk they get drafted by an NL club. I've already selected Soler in one of my other leagues. Despaigne just set the Cuban HR rcd (breaking Cespedes rcd set last year) w several games still left to go. He's been considered the best player in Cuba for a while now and he's even younger than Cespedes. Of course, I have no idea whether he'll come over or not, but he might be worth a flyer if you have a deep farm system.

Limiting to just players already in a MLB org, some guys that dont appear on most lists are M Szczur, T Wheeler, R Guzman, M Ozuna, B Jacobs, B Brentz, T Story, J Villar and C Villanueva. All those are in my top 100 currently. I heard some rave reviews of Guzman lately where people are saying that not only has he got crazy upside he's not as raw as people thought before and he has great makeup. He supposedly is starting at Low-A at age 17 (!!!). Of course, he's still a long way away from MLB.

If you're looking for guys that didnt make a MLB club but possibly could be called up sometime this year and have some upside, I'd consider B Guyer, Francisco Martinez, V Catricala, G Richards, N Ramirez, D Hutchison, C Blackmon, E Surkamp, C Ruffin, Henry Rodriguez, R Havens (not to mention guys like L Martin, H Lee, Hultzen, Bauer, Teheran, Skaggs, Turner, Paxton, Harvey, Parker and Peacock).

Of the guys you listed, I'd consider grabbing A Bradley if he falls to you. I've heard people rave about him lately, saying that he looked great in ST and people are wondering why he fell as far as #7 in the draft. They're saying now that he is just as good as or even better than Bundy. The other 2 that you listed that I have ranked the highest are Wong and R Liriano. Liriano is a personal favorite of mine. He's getting more hype now. People say his speed is not great even tho he gets a lot of SBs, but that he uses it well and it's at least maybe a tick above average.

Sorry if your league is NL-only. Looking closer at the guys you listed, it looks like it is.

Hope this helps!

[rhd]

rhd, I understand your roto faith is much lower in minor league catchers than other positions, and I agree, it should be. That said, I came across a first year catcher in the Cleveland organization with a very good bb rate, bb:k rate and showed power (23 doubles, 7 hr) in half a season. His final season of ncaa ball, he hit 24 hr.

Do you think Jake Lowery is a worth while speculation pick in an a.l. only ultra league format. Obviously, if he keeps hitting and walking the way he did in A-, he'll be on the public radar soon enough but you are the guru of prospects, maybe you can give us some info I can't gleen from the b-r pages...

Thanx for the response, wannabegriffey.

I dont know much about Lowery, tho I had heard of him. I see that he was drafted in the 4th round and that he did OK in his debut at SS-A, but was a little old for the league. Yes, I dont value catcher prospects in roto as highly as many others and Lowery currently is not on my list at all. Chun Chen, which the other poster mentioned, has reached AA level and is on my list, altho pretty far down. Of course the problem for both of them is that Santana will be the starter in Cleveland for the foreseeable future.

[james33]

NL-only 12 team league with a minor league roster of 10 that has to be comprised of players currently in an NL team's minor league org (no college/intl'). So I always need to go deeper than most publicly available lists save Project Prospect. But rhd's list is my first resource since it is done best with a fantasy perspectvie (why trust rhd over Baseball America? Baseball America is the big experts, right? Well, yeah, but their list is MLB prospects, not fantasy prospects. The two are quite different.)

rhd, you aren't the only fan of Rymer Liriano as someone after the draft asked me about him after I picked him. Dee Gordon's expected success this year has impacted our league in that a few owners are really focusing on SB prospects, with Junior Lake going in the draft much earlier than I thought he would (we previously discussed Lake; I was hoping to get him a little later but he went quite early).

Anyway, I come asking today about the two of my ten who are not on your list to see where roughly you have them ranked and what your thoughts on them are. When going beyond your list, I tend to focus on guys with power or speed or both, with sometimes foolish hopes that they'll be good enough or will learn how to field and how to make contact. I also tend to get strangely excited about minor league guys who hit a lot of doubles.

1) Jordany Valdespin, NYM SS/2B, 24 years old, 17 HR and 32 2B in 511 AB mainly in AA, some in AAA. 37 SB but 18 CS. Just 25 BB against 93 K.

2) Alex Dickerson, PIT 1B, 22 years old, 3 HR and 16 2B in 150 AB in Low A. 16 BB against 28 K. No steal attempts so he must be absurdly slow and I saw a pic of him that makes it look like he had a bit of a gut already as a sophomore in college. Won Big Ten Triple Crown the year before, but pretty sure Big Ten is pretty lousy baseball conference relative to its basketball/football ranking.

[Judge Jude]

rhd:
Yes, I am NL-only and cannot take anyone not already on NL roster somewhere. Astros worthless as they are leaving for AL next year (including my Singleton, alas)

I own TWheeler already, too.
I probably can't get A Bradley at 9 but might have a shot at that Soriano kid.

HRodriguez is on the Nationals, but Blackmon is of the sort I meant. Like ESanchez, may help quickly but post-'prospect' phase.

Thanks!