RHD's Top 150 Roto Prospects (with writeups!) ('Pre-BA Top 100' version)

[rhd]

NL-only 12 team league with a minor league roster of 10 that has to be comprised of players currently in an NL team's minor league org (no college/intl'). So I always need to go deeper than most publicly available lists save Project Prospect. But rhd's list is my first resource since it is done best with a fantasy perspectvie (why trust rhd over Baseball America? Baseball America is the big experts, right? Well, yeah, but their list is MLB prospects, not fantasy prospects. The two are quite different.)

rhd, you aren't the only fan of Rymer Liriano as someone after the draft asked me about him after I picked him. Dee Gordon's expected success this year has impacted our league in that a few owners are really focusing on SB prospects, with Junior Lake going in the draft much earlier than I thought he would (we previously discussed Lake; I was hoping to get him a little later but he went quite early).

Anyway, I come asking today about the two of my ten who are not on your list to see where roughly you have them ranked and what your thoughts on them are. When going beyond your list, I tend to focus on guys with power or speed or both, with sometimes foolish hopes that they'll be good enough or will learn how to field and how to make contact. I also tend to get strangely excited about minor league guys who hit a lot of doubles.

1) Jordany Valdespin, NYM SS/2B, 24 years old, 17 HR and 32 2B in 511 AB mainly in AA, some in AAA. 37 SB but 18 CS. Just 25 BB against 93 K.

2) Alex Dickerson, PIT 1B, 22 years old, 3 HR and 16 2B in 150 AB in Low A. 16 BB against 28 K. No steal attempts so he must be absurdly slow and I saw a pic of him that makes it look like he had a bit of a gut already as a sophomore in college. Won Big Ten Triple Crown the year before, but pretty sure Big Ten is pretty lousy baseball conference relative to its basketball/football ranking.

Thanx for the response, james33.

Both guys are in the 350-400 range on my list. Valdespin seems to be getting some hype lately but Dickerson appears to be more highly regarded. The advantage for Valdespin is he's not far form MLB whereas Dickerson is pretty far away. Since the Mets need practically everything, including a 2Bman and OFers, Valdespin could get a shot soon so of the 2 I'd probably take him. But there are probably a lot of other guys available that I'd take before either one.

[rhd]

rhd:
Yes, I am NL-only and cannot take anyone not already on NL roster somewhere. Astros worthless as they are leaving for AL next year (including my Singleton, alas)

I own TWheeler already, too.
I probably can't get A Bradley at 9 but might have a shot at that Soriano kid.

HRodriguez is on the Nationals, but Blackmon is of the sort I meant. Like ESanchez, may help quickly but post-'prospect' phase.

Thanks!

I meant the Henry Rodriguez who is a 3B/2Bman w the Reds. His numbers are very good and he's young for his leagues, but I think he's considered sort of a 'tweener' or utility type.

Another guy to consider is J Villar of Houston. Not on most lists, but BA listed him as a HM. Could be their SS of the future and he could provide a lot of SBs. And could be w the big club by sometime next year, or even Sept this year.

Matt Adams I'm sure is already on your radar.

Dont forget about M Dominguez either, especially if he gets traded.

[cardboardbox]

of guys you can get, I like

5. R Liriano
6. J Bell
7. O Taveras

In particular I really like Bell because althought he isnt very highly ranked, everyone seems to think he's going to be a good hitter with a lot of power. Law said this:

"His right-handed swing isn't as quick or smooth, and he's probably a left fielder due to below-average run and arm tools. But the bat, while a few years off, has the ceiling of an All-Star even at an offense-first position, with power, average and the promise at least of some patience as well."

and he said this about Liriano (while comparing him to a young Sammy Sosa):

"but a right fielder who saves 5-10 runs a year with the potential for a .300 average, 30 homers, and 30-plus steals is a really rare and valuable commodity."

Lots of upside in those two prospects.

[Judge Jude]

Thanks - am almost certain I'll get one of those at 9...

[mjl]

What do you think of Joe Panik? Down in High A, but the Giants really need a second baseman that isn't terrible, hurt, or both...

Actually, same question for Ronald Torreyes, who I see you had drop off the main list.

[Judge Jude]

a Panik move? seems too early for that just yet

[rhd]

What do you think of Joe Panik? Down in High A, but the Giants really need a second baseman that isn't terrible, hurt, or both...

Actually, same question for Ronald Torreyes, who I see you had drop off the main list.

Thanx for the response, mjl.

I like Panik a lot. I saw him for the first time in the Cape Cod League a couple years ago, where he was one of the best players. Not quite ready to put him in my top 150 yet. And the Giants most likely are not quite ready to call him up yet. He has only a half year of pro experience and that all in a short season league. He didnt make any of the reputable Top 100 lists. The book on him seems to be not star material but quite possibly a solid MLB regular. Give him a chance to get some more pro experience.

Re: Torreyes, he wasnt rated quite as highly by BA, et al, as I was expecting. Folks seem to question his size. Still, BA says he could quite possibly become a MLB regular. He's not too far down my list.

[Hornsby]

rhd, your stuff is outstanding, and an invaluable resource to just about everyone on the site...thanks for the hard work that you put in.

Question...what can you tell me about Johnny Hellweg? Thanks...

[DMT]

rhd, your stuff is outstanding, and an invaluable resource to just about everyone on the site...thanks for the hard work that you put in.

Yea, in RJEL we could almost skip the minor league draft since it follows your rankings almost exactly.

[rhd]

rhd, your stuff is outstanding, and an invaluable resource to just about everyone on the site...thanks for the hard work that you put in.

Question...what can you tell me about Johnny Hellweg? Thanks...

Thanx for your response and the props, Hornsby.

Hellweg is on the list now (#148). Getting some hype lately and very good K potential.

BTW, I'm planning to post a new list soon, I think by this weekend.

[Controller Jacobs]

Yea, in RJEL we could almost skip the minor league draft since it follows your rankings almost exactly.

I've actually had to switch my tactics because of it.
Having traded away my 1st-rounder last year, here's the all-hitting team I've picked up, all drafted between picks 34-73.
- Vinnie Catricala (rhd 124)
- Trevor Story (rhd 84)
- DJ LeMahieu
- Chih-Hsien Chiang
- Levi Michael
- Adrian Cardenas SS CHC
- Jae-Hoon Ha OF CHC

I had some fun coming up with them. I went to BR, pulled the AA stats from 2007-2011 for players with 141+AB, age < 27
Then I played around with only 3 numbers for each: age (per season), k rate, slugging percentage.

My final formula was these three multiplied together:
1+(23-Age)/8 -- (age was per br had, I assume opening day age rounded down)
1+2.8*(slugging %-0.42) -- (no adjustment for league or home park)
1+3*(0.21-K Rate)

I know, very arbitrary, but check out the top 11:
3.08: 2009 Jason Heyward
2.65: 2010 Eric Hosmer
2.64: 2010 Mike Moustakas
2.56: 2009 Jesus Montero
2.48: 2010 Giancarlo "Mike" Stanton
2.40: 2011 Jose Altuve
2.34: 2007 Justin Upton
2.27: 2008 Matt Wieters
2.22: 2008 Pablo Sandoval
2.18: 2011 Mike Trout
2.01: 2011 Vinnie Catricala

[rhd]

I've actually had to switch my tactics because of it.
Having traded away my 1st-rounder last year, here's the all-hitting team I've picked up, all drafted between picks 34-73.
- Vinnie Catricala (rhd 124)
- Trevor Story (rhd 84)
- DJ LeMahieu
- Chih-Hsien Chiang
- Levi Michael
- Adrian Cardenas SS CHC
- Jae-Hoon Ha OF CHC

I had some fun coming up with them. I went to BR, pulled the AA stats from 2007-2011 for players with 141+AB, age < 27
Then I played around with only 3 numbers for each: age (per season), k rate, slugging percentage.

My final formula was these three multiplied together:
1+(23-Age)/8 -- (age was per br had, I assume opening day age rounded down)
1+2.8*(slugging %-0.42) -- (no adjustment for league or home park)
1+3*(0.21-K Rate)

I know, very arbitrary, but check out the top 11:
3.08: 2009 Jason Heyward
2.65: 2010 Eric Hosmer
2.64: 2010 Mike Moustakas
2.56: 2009 Jesus Montero
2.48: 2010 Giancarlo "Mike" Stanton
2.40: 2011 Jose Altuve
2.34: 2007 Justin Upton
2.27: 2008 Matt Wieters
2.22: 2008 Pablo Sandoval
2.18: 2011 Mike Trout
2.01: 2011 Vinnie Catricala

Interesting method. Out of curiosity, a few observations/questions:
- You seem to be using .21 and .42 as 'threshold' values for K-rate and SLG respectively. What influenced you to use these particular values? I think I would have gone w a slightly lower rate for each, say about .41 for SLG and .18 for K-rate, as these are closer to what I would call the "desired average rate".
- How did you come up w the multipliers and divisor for the different categories (divisor of 8 for age factor, multipliers of 2.8 and 3 for SLG and K-rate, respectively)?
- How do you evaluate players that havent reached AA yet (e.g., Story, from your recent selections)? Many desirable players will be included among these. It would seem that, as a rule of thumb, you could subtract a year from the age per level and still use the formulas.
- You dont seem to have any factor that includes walks or OBP. Why did you decide to exclude that?
- You dont have any factor that includes speed. Do you take SB potential into consideration in selecting players?
- I ran your calculations (sort of) for the 6 players you listed above using last year's stats. The ages I used were as of 12/31/11. I just used K/ABs for the K-rate. For Story, I just pretended he was 23 in AA, since last year he was 4 levels below AA and 4 years younger than 23. Similar thing for Cardenas - he was 1 level above AA and 1 year older than 23. For the players that played both at AA and another level last year, I didnt separate out the stats from the 2 levels. Catricala had the highest score, but Ha was second, primarily because of his age factor. And Story's score was considerably less than the others, mainly because of his relatively hi K-rate. So, your formulas seem to heavily favor guys that are young for their league and have very good K-rates and heavily ding those that are old for their leagues and have poor K-rates.
- Do you have formulas for pitchers?

[Controller Jacobs]

Replying to rhd:

-- Regarding players that don't fit my calculations:
I picked Story based on your ranking and write-up. I'm not a total dummy.
I picked Levi Michael because he was the highest position player left from the 2011 draft, and I liked his writeup from draft sites.
In our minors draft, we can't take anybody who passes 130 AB, I think that's the "Rookie of the Year" max.

-- Pitching: I don't have any pitching factors. The only league I'm in is 18-team mixed with a 5-player bench, so drafting anything but elite strikeout talent is a waste. As an example, I've got Gio Gonzalez Ricky Romero and Doug Fister for about $5 each, all from draft or FAAB. If I had picked them as minor leaguers, I would have needed to bench them for their first seasons. If the league was 20 teams with a 10-player bench, I'd put work into pitchers.

-- Speed: I don't have any speed factors, unless you consider the influence on slugging percentage (more doubles, triples). I've had enough of getting excited about speed guys only to see what happens when a major leaguer tries to break their bat. I'm happy if your rankings guide me to speed players, but I'll omit them from mine.

-- BB rate: I actually did a little AA study a few years ago, using Age, OPS and BB/K Ratio. It highlighted Alex Avila, Ezequiel Carrera, Mike Carp, Jake Fox, and Mat Gamel, among others. At the time, JC mentioned that contact rate might be undervalued by it. That stuck with me. I didn't want some speed guy that wasn't going to get walks in the majors. I didn't want some guy who repeated AA enough to realize you can crank up your OPS by making the young guys with nasty stuff throw strikes. I wanted a guy who swung at that stuff, and hit it hard. And I wanted to spend a small amount of time to produce my list.

-- The numbers: I started by playing with factors that would give me multipliers in the range of about .75 to 1.5. Then I started looking at who was popping out. If it produced a guy I didn't like, I looked at my current factors to see what was being over-emphasized. After a few times, it started nominating players that I liked the look of.

[Judge Jude]

of my consensus of top remaining list from earlier in the thread, the first 4 picks today have been in that exact order (scary!)

1. D Pomeranz
2. A Bradley
3. C Martinez
4. T May

but the 5th pick was Cardinals 1B Matt Adams, who was 11th available in a later, wider consensus I just saw
the 6th pick was Peralta, who was 9th on my consensus list
Liriano went 7th, he was 5th on my board
high-upside Baez, 10 on my chart, was picked 8th

I then took J Bell, OF from the Pirates at 9 (he was 6 on my board)
and my 29th-year rival then said he was in the same conundrum as me - Bell, or Taveras? He took the leftover, Taveras at 10
11th was Eovaldi (also 11th on my board)
then guys got creative: Wieland (being recalled tomorrow by SD), TFrazier (only 112 MLB AB for Reds so eligible).
then ASimmons at 14, 13th on my dart board
guy named Trevor Story taken at 15; my war room guys shrug
16 was Taylor Green, who may be up soon; then someone named Eury Perez (???)

still left from my list as I mull picks 18 and 19
8. J Gyorko

12. A Webster

(UPDATE, I took ABradley and Eduardo Sanchez, who with 30 MLB IP qualifies because we don't include service time. having mechanical issues right now in AAA, but more upside, I figured)

0thers I passed on

(Erlin, Wong, T Jenkins, Biddle on some but not others)
(guys high on the broader consensus list: Heredia, Grossman, JFernandez, Familia, Purke)

[gcstomp]

Curious if the A Rendon breaking his freakin ankle at all tumble your aggressive ranking of him on your new list. His challenges include coming in with an unsettling college injury history, and he is blocked at the big league level at his natural position. Ankle fracture may only be a 3 month set back, but it was enough for me to think that maybe he is a high risk play to smoothly transition to 2b.