2K12: Adam Jones

[DJBeasties]

Adam Jones is a quirky profile to me in that when I watch him play, I think he should be better than he really is. Even going back to his days as a prospect with Seattle, I thought he was destined for stardom. Jones is a guy who hits cleanup for the Baltimore Orioles and really has a lot of positive things going for him from a fantasy-perspective. He also has some flies in the ointment which hold him back.


*He has above-average power -- good
But he hits 50% of the batted balls on the ground -- not that good consider he has average speed and it's wasting his strength

*He makes decent contact at 80%
But he cannot draw a walk to any better than 5% of the time meaning his EYE (BB/K) is ranging from bad to pathetic.

One of the nice things about Jones is that he is a reliable guy who will play every day and give you 550+ABs. He didn't spend any time on the DL in 2010 or 2011 and his production is very consistent. It just seems like it should be better. Greedy? Maybe. But when you see good contact and good power wasted by a groundball-tilt that favors guys like Juan Pierre, it's a little frustrating.

But , you know what you are getting with Adam Jones. And that's worth something.


Another thing top note in terms of his power production is he has a history of fluctuating HR/f:

2008 -- 8% HR/f
2009 -- 18% HR/f
2010 -- 11% HR/f
2011 -- 17% HR/f

What this means is that his 20+ HR capabilities are tied to this fluctating variable. He pounds balls into the ground so when he does get them in the air, you are at the mercy of this bouncing stat. It's the difference between him hitting 18 or hitting 25 HRs.

All in all though, he's probably as solid of a $20 OF as there is. Just don't expect huge growth just because he's 26. Nothing in his profile (esp the second half) indicate he'll suddenly jump.

2012 Projection
.275 BA
20 HRs
88 RBI
75 Runs
7 SBs

[onejayhawk]

Is Adam Jones Delmon Young II?

I think he could get the RBI surge because the team will put him in RBI situations. A power surge is more problematic, and he is a GIDP waiting to happen, if that matters.

J

[joncarlos]

He plays an outstanding CF. So he's always on SportsCenter for things that don't help your team. That also suggests the idea that he must have great speed, but he doesn't steal that many bases. In other words, he's not as good as some people think he is.

His line drive rates are ok - consistently around 17%. Of note, the years where his HR/FB was better, his G/F was more tilted towards fly balls.

2008 -- 8% HR/f and 1.32 G/F
2009 -- 18% HR/f and 1.97 G/F
2010 -- 11% HR/f and 1.26 G/F
2011 -- 17% HR/f and 1.50 G/F

This is his age 27 season. I'd go an extra couple dollars on a hunch but there's nothing concrete I can put my finger on. He just can't wait for his pitch and he hits too many pop-ups. The number of pitches he chased out of the zone went up last year. There's not a lot to like here but I just can't quit him.

[DJBeasties]

There's not a lot to like here but I just can't quit him.

Seriously. He's a good $20 guy. I just greedily expect more. I'll be interested to see reports and determine if his swing is any different this Feb/Mar, but I imagine he is what he is -- and that's OK if your expectations are in check.

[chancellor]

If you're in an OBP league as I am, you have to downgrade Jones. But he does deliver about the most consistent stat line around - .780ish OPS 70-20-70-10