Adam Jones is a quirky profile to me in that when I watch him play, I think he should be better than he really is. Even going back to his days as a prospect with Seattle, I thought he was destined for stardom. Jones is a guy who hits cleanup for the Baltimore Orioles and really has a lot of positive things going for him from a fantasy-perspective. He also has some flies in the ointment which hold him back.
*He has above-average power -- good
But he hits 50% of the batted balls on the ground -- not that good consider he has average speed and it's wasting his strength
*He makes decent contact at 80%
But he cannot draw a walk to any better than 5% of the time meaning his EYE (BB/K) is ranging from bad to pathetic.
One of the nice things about Jones is that he is a reliable guy who will play every day and give you 550+ABs. He didn't spend any time on the DL in 2010 or 2011 and his production is very consistent. It just seems like it should be better. Greedy? Maybe. But when you see good contact and good power wasted by a groundball-tilt that favors guys like Juan Pierre, it's a little frustrating.
But , you know what you are getting with Adam Jones. And that's worth something.
Another thing top note in terms of his power production is he has a history of fluctuating HR/f:
2008 -- 8% HR/f
2009 -- 18% HR/f
2010 -- 11% HR/f
2011 -- 17% HR/f
What this means is that his 20+ HR capabilities are tied to this fluctating variable. He pounds balls into the ground so when he does get them in the air, you are at the mercy of this bouncing stat. It's the difference between him hitting 18 or hitting 25 HRs.
All in all though, he's probably as solid of a $20 OF as there is. Just don't expect huge growth just because he's 26. Nothing in his profile (esp the second half) indicate he'll suddenly jump.
2012 Projection
.275 BA
20 HRs
88 RBI
75 Runs
7 SBs
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