RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects (Pre BA League Top 20s Edition)

[rhd]

Guys I snagged off WW. I will probably keep 3-4.

12 Anthony Rizzo 1B SD -6 6
13 Brett Jackson OF CHC 4 17
34 Leonys Martin OF Tex 35 69
37 Paul Goldschmidt 1B Ari 30 67
41 Randall Delgado SP Atl -4 37
60 Zach Cozart SS Cin NA NA
Drew Pomeranz

I also picked up Lorenzo Cain. If he were eligible, where would he rank?

If Pomeranz is a rotation regular, and he looks to get a shot, shouldnt he still be on the list, even in Coors?

J

Thanx for the response, onejayhawk.

Pomeranz (along w A White) is in a 'sticky' spot just off the list. That's where he'll stay until someone convinces me he's an elite-type starter now or is likely to become one in the near future. Just my own personal abhorrence of Rockies starter pitching prospects.

Cain presents a somewhat interesting case. He's 25 y/o, spent the entire season in the minors until now, and has been known as a speedy OFer w little power and so-so plate discipline. But this year he has started hitting HRs (16), albeit in the PCL. His SBs have gone down (about 1 per 30 ABs as opposed a career rate of about 1 per 20 ABs). Unless I thought he would get regular playing time next year, I wouldnt include him, and I just dont see that happenning. KC's OF starters are Gordon, Francoeur and Melky. The first 2 definitely will be back next year. I dont know whether Melky's contract extends thru next year, but he had a career year and I dont think he's very expensive at all so I would think that he's their CFer next yr also. That leaves Cain as a 4th OFer at best. So rt now, he would not make the list if he were eligible. But sounds like he's a worthwhile flyer, tho, so congrats.

[Bodhizefa]

Thanx for the response, onejayhawk.

Pomeranz (along w A White) is in a 'sticky' spot just off the list. That's where he'll stay until someone convinces me he's an elite-type starter now or is likely to become one in the near future. Just my own personal abhorrence of Rockies starter pitching prospects.

Cain presents a somewhat interesting case. He's 25 y/o, spent the entire season in the minors until now, and has been known as a speedy OFer w little power and so-so plate discipline. But this year he has started hitting HRs (16), albeit in the PCL. His SBs have gone down (about 1 per 30 ABs as opposed a career rate of about 1 per 20 ABs). Unless I thought he would get regular playing time next year, I wouldnt include him, and I just dont see that happenning. KC's OF starters are Gordon, Francoeur and Melky. The first 2 definitely will be back next year. I dont know whether Melky's contract extends thru next year, but he had a career year and I dont think he's very expensive at all so I would think that he's their CFer next yr also. That leaves Cain as a 4th OFer at best. So rt now, he would not make the list if he were eligible. But sounds like he's a worthwhile flyer, tho, so congrats.

I think the aversion to Rockies starting pitching is a bit over the top at this point. Juan Nicasio looked quite capable in his short stint. Chacin and Ubaldo were both mostly successful in the last few years (Ubaldo wasn't right this year, obviously, and it wasn't a Coors thing that caused it). Pomeranz has good stuff and good scouting reports, so I don't think there's any reason to completely avoid him in fantasy circles. Sure, his stats aren't going to be as good in Coors as they would be in most other parks, but the differential between Coors and the other parks is much smaller than it used to be. And the NL is a better place to pitch than the AL any day of the week. Pomeranz is a good prospect, and he deserves to be on pretty much any list at this point. I think you're giving way too much credit to Coors, rhd. Stop fretting the park so much, and don't overthink it! Pomeranz is good. How good? I have no idea (that's why you make the lists and I don't!). But don't let Coors stop you from ranking a guy

[rhd]

I think the aversion to Rockies starting pitching is a bit over the top at this point. Juan Nicasio looked quite capable in his short stint. Chacin and Ubaldo were both mostly successful in the last few years (Ubaldo wasn't right this year, obviously, and it wasn't a Coors thing that caused it). Pomeranz has good stuff and good scouting reports, so I don't think there's any reason to completely avoid him in fantasy circles. Sure, his stats aren't going to be as good in Coors as they would be in most other parks, but the differential between Coors and the other parks is much smaller than it used to be. And the NL is a better place to pitch than the AL any day of the week. Pomeranz is a good prospect, and he deserves to be on pretty much any list at this point. I think you're giving way too much credit to Coors, rhd. Stop fretting the park so much, and don't overthink it! Pomeranz is good. How good? I have no idea (that's why you make the lists and I don't!). But don't let Coors stop you from ranking a guy

Sorry for the tardy response, Bodhizefa. Been busy lately, and also got mesmerized by the greatest night of baseball I've ever seen.

I guess we'll have agree to disagree on Pomeranz and Rockies starting pitchers in general. I just dont want them on my team when I have what I consider better options available. Pomeranz has a long way to go to establish himself as one to put up good enough MLB stats to make him attractive to me in roto. Chacin does seem to have established enough of a good track record to make him worth taking a chance on, but Rockies starting pitcher prospects are generally too risky for me.

Re: Coors Field, I just looked at the 2011 Park factors, and Coors Field once again played as an extreme hitters park, with a runs factor of 1.347 (reminiscent of pre-humidor days). Actually, there was 1 park that was an even more extreme park this year: Ballpark at Arlington (runs factor of 1.409 - ouch!). But Coors still has the highest 3-year avg at 1.319, far higher than any other park (the Rangers park is 2nd at 1.195). So my thinking on Coors Field is not changed (and I also will be watching the Rangers park closely next year).

[onejayhawk]

The Rangers, and the Ballpark, played in the most desertlike conditions in area history. Texas is usually hot in summer, but it is also usually humid. Not only were the temperatures consistently 5° - 10° above normal, there was no rain from May 15 to September 15. i do not expect to see numbers like that every year.

J

[Judge Jude]

Yes, has to be MORE than 130 AB. Gamel and YBetancourt once had 130 for Brewers, iirc, not that it got them any hardware the next year, lol.
Rizzo I think was 128.

Of course, amount of service time on the MLB roster also can come into play and eliminate players, although we skip that part...

[wannabegriffey]

Rank Name Pos Org +/- Prev
1 Mike Trout OF LAA 0 1

Fishboy managed to retain his rookie status by not exceeding 130 at bats. The question is: with all the angel of/dh/1b types with guaranteed contracts, does he begin 2012 in triple A?

[rhd]

Fishboy managed to retain his rookie status by not exceeding 130 at bats. The question is: with all the angel of/dh/1b types with guaranteed contracts, does he begin 2012 in triple A?

I would expect Trout to start w the Angels next year. Dont see where he has anything left to prove in the minors. The question is who is going to play where for the Angels. Trout is a CFer, but they probably keep Bourjos there and move Trout to LF, w Hunter in RF. So they'd have 3 guys that arguably can still play a good CF in their OF, a nice 'problem' to have. IF Morales is healthy, then he and Trumbo would appear to be the 1B/DH combo. That makes Wells a very expensive bench player, which is the real problem that Trout's presence causes. Would they try Trumbo or Morales at 3B in order to get Wells in the lineup and try to salvage part of his contract? Seems unlikely but who knows. If they're unwilling to do that, does that cause them to start Trout in the minors? That would seem to be a foolish thing to do. If they can come up w a trade of Hunter, who still has some value, for a decent 3Bman, that might be the most sensible solution, but easier said than done. So, I think the most likely thing is they keep everyone and Trout becomes a 4th OFer until the situation shakes itself out somehow.

[rhd]

Yes, has to be MORE than 130 AB. Gamel and YBetancourt once had 130 for Brewers, iirc, not that it got them any hardware the next year, lol.
Rizzo I think was 128.

Of course, amount of service time on the MLB roster also can come into play and eliminate players, although we skip that part...

Yes Rizzo stays on, as does Trout, Alonso and Javy Guerra. Goldschmidt is off now, as is Kipnis, T Robinson, and some others. Next list should be posted rt before BA starts their Team top 10s, which should be about mid-November. I've moved Gyorko and Yelich way up now, and some new guys are on near the back end.

[wannabegriffey]

I would expect Trout to start w the Angels next year. Dont see where he has anything left to prove in the minors. The question is who is going to play where for the Angels. Trout is a CFer, but they probably keep Bourjos there and move Trout to LF, w Hunter in RF. So they'd have 3 guys that arguably can still play a good CF in their OF, a nice 'problem' to have. IF Morales is healthy, then he and Trumbo would appear to be the 1B/DH combo. That makes Wells a very expensive bench player, which is the real problem that Trout's presence causes. Would they try Trumbo or Morales at 3B in order to get Wells in the lineup and try to salvage part of his contract? Seems unlikely but who knows. If they're unwilling to do that, does that cause them to start Trout in the minors? That would seem to be a foolish thing to do. If they can come up w a trade of Hunter, who still has some value, for a decent 3Bman, that might be the most sensible solution, but easier said than done. So, I think the most likely thing is they keep everyone and Trout becomes a 4th OFer until the situation shakes itself out somehow.

What about bobby abreu? I'm thinking (and selfishly hoping) he begins in triple A. That said, you are correct, he has nothing left to prove in the minors so it all comes down to trades...

[rhd]

What about bobby abreu? I'm thinking (and selfishly hoping) he begins in triple A. That said, you are correct, he has nothing left to prove in the minors so it all comes down to trades...

Is Abreu signed for next year already? If so, that just adds to the complications.

[wannabegriffey]

Is Abreu signed for next year already? If so, that just adds to the complications.

His option kicked in.

[wannabegriffey]

137 Mike Olt 3B Tex NA NA

I am kind of surprised to find mike olt in the mid 100's. Lots of power, lots of walks, maybe he should have cracked the top 100!

[rhd]

I am kind of surprised to find mike olt in the mid 100's. Lots of power, lots of walks, maybe he should have cracked the top 100!

Thanx for the response, wannabegriffey.

After seeing BA's recent ranking, reading his scouting report and hearing other things recently about Olt, I agree w you and he is much higher now (currently #77). Probably should be even higher, but for now I'll wait for more info on him.

I plan to post an updated list next weekend (Before BA's Team Top 10's begin on Oct 31). BTW, now that Darvish seem to be definitely coming over, he is now #4.

[Moonlight J]

Thing about Olt is Myrtle Beach plays like a large park and it's tough to hit with power there. 29 XBH with 14 homers in under 300 PA is a very good line for that park. McCann hit 16 homers in 421 PA there in 2004 at age 20.