RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects (Pre BA League Top 20s Edition)

[rhd]

Baseball America will start posting their League Top 20 lists later today, so I wanted to post my latest list before they start. Lots of new names and other changes. This is the time of year where my list probably diverges the most from BA's, since I have yet to see any of their current scouting reports and rankings.

Same rules as always: I use BA's prospect eligibility requirements, which are <=130 MLB AB or <=50 MLB IP, except that amateurs, unsigned draftees and foreign players also are eligible. As usual, this is for roto, not 'real' baseball, so pitchers are downgraded some, catchers downgraded somewhat (unless they're elite prospects and their bat will play at any position), actual closers upgraded a lot, SB guys who project to get MLB playing time get upgraded some, and guys who either currently are or project to soon be regulars can get upgraded quite a bit. Position listed is their current primary one to the best of my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), not the one they're likely to end up at.

Rank Name Pos Org +/- Prev
1 Mike Trout OF LAA 0 1
2 Bryce Harper OF Was 0 2
3 Matthew Moore SP TB 6 9
4 Julio Teheran SP Atl 3 7
5 Jesus Montero C NYY 6 11
6 Anthony Rendon 3B Was 2 8
7 Shelby Miller SP StL 3 10
8 Jacob Turner SP Det 12 20
9 Manny Machado SS Bal 3 12
10 Jurickson Profar SS Tex 53 63
11 Anthony Gose OF Tor 21 32
12 Anthony Rizzo 1B SD -6 6
13 Brett Jackson OF CHC 4 17
14 Miguel Angel Sano 3B Min 27 41
15 Jake Marisnick OF Tor 50 65
16 Rymer Liriano OF SD NA NA
17 Gary Brown OF SF 14 31
18 Billy Hamilton SS Cin 12 30
19 Tyler Skaggs SP Ari 61 80
20 Trevor Bauer SP Ari 6 26
21 Jameson Taillon SP Pit -3 18
22 Gerrit Cole SP Pit -3 19
23 Danny Hultzen SP Sea 1 24
24 Dylan Bundy SP Bal 1 25
25 George Springer OF Hou -3 22
26 Jason Kipnis 2B Cle 2 28
27 Wil Myers OF KC -14 13
28 Jean Segura SS LAA -7 21
29 Hak Ju Lee SS TB 18 47
30 Carlos Martinez (Matias) SP StL 15 45
31 Taijuan Walker SP Sea 48 79
32 Martin Perez SP Tex 1 33
33 Archie Bradley SP Ari 115 148
34 Leonys Martin OF Tex 35 69
35 Nick Franklin SS Sea -6 29
36 Michael Choice OF Oak 12 48
37 Paul Goldschmidt 1B Ari 30 67
38 Jonathan Singleton OF Hou 12 50
39 Nolan Arenado 3B Col 20 59
40 Arodys Vizcaino SP Atl 85 125
41 Randall Delgado SP Atl -4 37
42 James Paxton SP Sea NA NA
43 Trevor May SP Phi 67 110
44 Oscar Taveras OF StL 26 70
45 Christian Yelich OF Fla 66 111
46 Tim Wheeler OF Col 40 86
47 Manny Banuelos SP NYY -3 44
48 Jake Odorizzi SP KC 33 81
49 Zack Wheeler SP NYM 12 61
50 Dellin Betances SP NYY 32 82
51 Javy Guerra RP LAD 96 147
52 Bubba (Derek) Starling OF KC -29 23
53 Josh Bell OF Pit NA NA
54 Francisco Lindor SS Cle -3 51
55 Yu Darvish SP Japan -3 52
56 Jarrod Parker SP Ari 6 62
57 Mike Montgomery SP KC -18 39
58 Henderson Alvarez SP Tor NA NA
59 Joe Benson OF Min 25 84
60 Zach Cozart SS Cin NA NA
61 Charlie Blackmon OF Col -5 56
62 Matt Dominguez 3B Fla -5 57
63 Yonder Alonso 1B Cin 26 89
64 Trayvon Robinson OF Sea 4 68
65 Hisashi Iwakuma SP Japan -11 54
66 Brad Peacock SP Was 78 144
67 Neil Ramirez SP Tex 4 71
68 Devin Mesoraco C Cin 19 87
69 Travis D'Arnaud C Tor NA NA
70 Starling Marte OF Pit 15 85
71 Will Middlebrooks 3B Bos 63 134
72 Jedd Gyorko 3B SD -32 40
73 Matthew Davidson 3B Ari -13 60
74 Cheslor Cuthbert 3B KC NA NA
75 Matt Harvey SP NYM 17 92
76 Casey Kelly SP SD -3 73
77 Keyvius Sampson SP SD NA NA
78 A.J. Cole SP Was 46 124
79 Mikie Mahtook OF TB -5 74
80 Taylor Jungmann SP Mil -5 75
81 Jonathan Villar SS Hou -23 58
82 Reymond Fuentes OF SD -18 64
83 Danny Carroll OF Sea NA NA
84 Matt Szczur OF CHC 19 103
85 A.J. Pollock OF Ari NA NA
86 Cory Spangenberg 2B SD NA NA
87 Oswaldo Arcia OF Min 13 100
88 Nick Castellanos 3B Det -16 72
89 Cesar Puello OF NYM -43 46
90 Bryce Brentz OF Bos 0 90
91 Zack Cox 3B StL 0 91
92 Josh Vitters 3B CHC -4 88
93 Gary Sanchez C NYY -50 43
94 Allen Webster SP LAD 3 97
95 Zach Lee SP LAD -2 93
96 Eddie Rosario OF Min NA NA
97 Michael Crouse OF Tor NA NA
98 Christian Villanueva 3B Tex NA NA
99 Xander Bogaerts SS Bos NA NA
100 Ronald Torreyes 3B Cin NA NA
101 Jonathan Schoop SS Bal NA NA
102 Sonny Gray SP Oak 47 149
103 Drew Hutchison SP Tor NA NA
104 Nestor Molina SP Tor NA NA
105 Cody Buckel SP Tex NA NA
106 Justin Nicolino SP Tor NA NA
107 Jed Bradley SP Mil -5 102
108 Tyler Pastornicky SS Atl NA NA
109 Francisco Martinez 3B Sea NA NA
110 James Darnell 3B SD 4 114
111 Brandon Guyer OF TB 12 123
112 Blake Tekotte OF SD NA NA
113 Christian Colon SS KC -9 104
114 Liam Hendriks SP Min 32 146
115 Nathan Eovaldi SP LAD 28 143
116 Tim Beckham SS TB -1 115
117 Jaff Decker OF SD -4 113
118 Jonathan Galvez SS SD -1 117
119 Jesse Biddle SP Phi NA NA
120 Drew Smyly SP Det NA NA
121 Juan Oramas SP SD NA NA
122 Guillermo Pimentel OF Sea 19 141
123 Luis Heredia SP Pit 5 128
124 Wilmer Flores SS NYM -30 94
125 Aaron Hicks OF Min -49 76
126 Bobby Borchering 3B Ari 9 135
127 Robbie Erlin SP SD -19 108
128 Barret Loux SP Tex NA NA
129 Jarred Cosart SP Hou -30 99
130 Chris Archer SP TB -35 95
131 Anthony Ranaudo SP Bos -35 96
132 Deck McGuire SP Tor -6 126
133 Joe Wieland SP SD -35 98
134 Brody Colvin SP Phi -25 109
135 Garin Cecchini SS Bos NA NA
136 Kaleb Cowart 3B LAA -24 112
137 Mike Olt 3B Tex NA NA
138 Kolten Wong 2B StL NA NA
139 Javier Baez SS CHC NA NA
140 Destin Hood OF Was NA NA
141 Sean Coyle 2B Bos NA NA
142 Brandon Jacobs OF Bos NA NA
143 Henry Rodriguez 3B Cin NA NA
144 Robbie Grossman OF Pit NA NA
145 Mason Williams OF NYY NA NA
146 Tanner Scheppers RP Tex -45 101
147 Hiroyuki Nakajima SS Japan NA NA
148 Tsuyoshi Wada SP Japan NA NA
149 Wei-Yin Chen SP Japan NA NA
150 Norichika Aoki OF Japan -97 53

Eligibles dropping off list (24): K Gibson (#38), A White (#77), D Pomeranz (#78), T McNutt (#83), G Green (#105), A Oliver (#106), C James (#107), W Rosario (#118), D Norris (#119), Y Rodriguez (#120), J Sale (#121), F Peguero (#122), C Withrow (#127), S Allie (#129), K Nieuwenhuis (#131), T Neal (#132), E Salcedo (#136), J Iglesias (#137), M Lipka (#138), D DeShields (#139), E Perez (#140), G Gould (#142), J Familia (#145), A Despaigne (#150).

New Additions (41): R Liriano, J Paxton, J Bell, H Alvarez, Z Cozart, T D'Arnaud, C Cuthbert, K Sampson, D Carroll, A Pollock, C Spangenburg, E Rosario, M Crouse, C Villanueva, X Bogaerts, R Torreyes, J Schoop, D Hutchison, N Molina, C Buckel, J Nicolino, T Pastornicky, F Martinez, B Tekotte, J Biddle, D Smyly, J Oramas (back on), B Loux, G Cecchini, M Olt, K Wong, J Baez, D Hood, S Coyle, B Jacobs, H Rodriguez, R Grossman, M Williams, H Nakajima, T Wada, W Chen.

As usual, I look forward to your comments!

[Sharky]

Nice work, RHD! Always enjoy your lists, and it gives me something to think about as we head toward hibernation. Was curious to see Tekotte on your list. He seemed to scuffle in his brief audition, but also didn't seem to have a lot of upside. Pomeranz and Rosario drop off because of??

[schlesinj]

Pomeranz and Rosario drop off because of??

Pitching in Col?

[schlesinj]

15 Jake Marisnick OF Tor 50 65
16 Rymer Liriano OF SD NA NA
25 George Springer OF Hou -3 22
36 Michael Choice OF Oak 12 48
44 Oscar Taveras OF StL 26 70
74 Cheslor Cuthbert 3B KC NA NA

As always thank you very much. Can you give a quick view on these guys? Frankly I never heard of them and some of them had a nice jump in ranking. Thanks again.

[rhd]

Nice work, RHD! Always enjoy your lists, and it gives me something to think about as we head toward hibernation. Was curious to see Tekotte on your list. He seemed to scuffle in his brief audition, but also didn't seem to have a lot of upside. Pomeranz and Rosario drop off because of??

Thanx as always for your response, Sharky.

Pomeranz and A White dropped off because of the trade to the Rockies. Rosario dropped off because I just am not impressed by his performance this year (same for D Norris). He played in a hitters' league (also repeating the league) and altho he hit some HRs, his BA was low and his plate discipline was very bad. In a SSS in MLB, the same pattern continues. And he is a catcher. I anticipate that BA will still give a good scouting report and I'll end up moving him back on, but for now he's off.

[OaklandA's]

Great work again. One note - Paul Goldschmidt will not be rookie eligible next year; he's already at 130 ABs.

It seems like many prospect sites have dropped Jarrod Parker to #4 among the Diamondbacks' pitching prospects. I still like him more than Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs has put up great numbers in A and AA, but I think Parker's better stuff will end up making him a better major leaguer.

[Sharky]

Wow. Amazed to see Rendon ranked so high. I don't know a lot about him, but was surprised to see him start the list at such a spot. I know team context is only part of the equation, but don't the Nats have Zimmerman already at 3B?

[Bodhizefa]

Wow. Amazed to see Rendon ranked so high. I don't know a lot about him, but was surprised to see him start the list at such a spot. I know team context is only part of the equation, but don't the Nats have Zimmerman already at 3B?

Jim Callis keeps suggesting second base as Rendon's future position, but I've got to believe that with all the ankle issues Rendon had, second base is a horrible spot for him to end up considering all the takeouts and quick pivots at that position. I've read from at least two sources (Keith Law and Jason Churchill) that they don't believe Rendon will be able to handle second base physically for those very reasons.

So that leaves Rendon as either a 1st baseman or an outfielder. I could see him at either, honestly. Morse needs to be at first while he's under team control, though, because he's absolutely horrific in the outfield. So while he's still with the team (and while Zimmerman remains also), I'd wager that Rendon ends up in the outfield.

[rhd]

As always thank you very much. Can you give a quick view on these guys? Frankly I never heard of them and some of them had a nice jump in ranking. Thanks again.

Thanx for the response, schlesinj.

Well, several of these guys are getting a lot of hype lately.

Marisnick has been a hi-upside guy for a while. Great SB potential and is supposed to have 5-tool potential. Had an excellent year, so the performance is matching the hype now. I think Callis said lately that he gives Marisnick the edge over Gose as a prospect.

I may have Liriano higher than most. But his stats are eye-popping for roto prospectors (66 SBs for a guy that also has developing power!). He also is considered to have 5-tool potential. Was considered raw before this year, but he also had an excellent year.

Springer has among the best power-speed potential for any prospect. His ranking is completely based on projection; we'll have to wait until next year to see if the performance matches the hype.

Choice is another hi-upside prospect. IMHO, should be getting more hype. Big-time power potential and had a very good year. Needs to cut down on Ks, but he also draws a good amount of walks.

Some are saying Taveras' hit tool might be about the best in minors. Here's his slash stats for a 19 y/o in a full-season, pitchers' league: 386/444/584. Drool! I eagerly await BA's scouting reports.

Cuthbert's stats arent as impressive as the others above. But he is supposedly a hi-upside guy, so my ranking is based on scouting report-type info.

[Bodhizefa]

Fantastic work, as always, rhd. Many thanks for sharing your work with us!

It seems that the talent level really falls off a cliff after the Top 10 or so. This is one of the worst crop of prospects I've seen in a good long while in terms of depth. Anthony Gose, Anthony Rizzo, and Brett Jackson as 11-13? My oh my, that's one mediocre set of guys to be so close to the top. And it's not like I'm suggesting they should be ranked much lower, but jeez, that's a little depressing from a prospect enthusiast standpoint.

I think, for once, I have a bit of a disagreement over the general philosophy of your ranking style (at least with this particular crop of players). I like uber speedsters as much as the next fantasy owner, but I think it's possible you've swung the pendulum a little too far in how high you're ranking them. Billy Hamilton can't steal first base, for example. I think a lot of the pitchers you rank in the 20's would actually be much better fits for the 11-18 spots. I know you have a risk aversion to ranking pitchers that high, but at some point, you've got to ask yourself what's worse: having mediocre positional prospects filling top spots or having riskier but higher ceiling (and floor) pitchers ranked in there instead. Risk aversion only gets you so far, I think. I could see a good argument to have Skaggs, Bauer, Cole, Hultzen, and Bundy all in the top 15 in lieu of some of those positional guys.

Just my two cents. And as always, don't pay too much attention to any criticism I have. You know more about these guys than I ever will, and I thank you greatly for bringing us the list. You always open my eyes to plenty of players I never even knew about, so please continue!

[rhd]

Great work again. One note - Paul Goldschmidt will not be rookie eligible next year; he's already at 130 ABs.

It seems like many prospect sites have dropped Jarrod Parker to #4 among the Diamondbacks' pitching prospects. I still like him more than Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs has put up great numbers in A and AA, but I think Parker's better stuff will end up making him a better major leaguer.

Thanx for the response, OaklandA's.

I know about Goldschmidt. I was expecting to delete him from this list, but he fell 1 AB short. Similar thing happenned I believe a few years w Delmon Young. He had about 128 ABs and Tampa decided to shut him down a little early to preserve his rookie eligibility.

[rhd]

Jim Callis keeps suggesting second base as Rendon's future position, but I've got to believe that with all the ankle issues Rendon had, second base is a horrible spot for him to end up considering all the takeouts and quick pivots at that position. I've read from at least two sources (Keith Law and Jason Churchill) that they don't believe Rendon will be able to handle second base physically for those very reasons.

So that leaves Rendon as either a 1st baseman or an outfielder. I could see him at either, honestly. Morse needs to be at first while he's under team control, though, because he's absolutely horrific in the outfield. So while he's still with the team (and while Zimmerman remains also), I'd wager that Rendon ends up in the outfield.

Thanx for the response, Bodhizefa.

Dont know where Rendon will end up, but of course they'll make room for him somewhere. Wont make any difference re: my ranking, unless they move him to Catcher

[rhd]

Fantastic work, as always, rhd. Many thanks for sharing your work with us!

It seems that the talent level really falls off a cliff after the Top 10 or so. This is one of the worst crop of prospects I've seen in a good long while in terms of depth. Anthony Gose, Anthony Rizzo, and Brett Jackson as 11-13? My oh my, that's one mediocre set of guys to be so close to the top. And it's not like I'm suggesting they should be ranked much lower, but jeez, that's a little depressing from a prospect enthusiast standpoint.

I think, for once, I have a bit of a disagreement over the general philosophy of your ranking style (at least with this particular crop of players). I like uber speedsters as much as the next fantasy owner, but I think it's possible you've swung the pendulum a little too far in how high you're ranking them. Billy Hamilton can't steal first base, for example. I think a lot of the pitchers you rank in the 20's would actually be much better fits for the 11-18 spots. I know you have a risk aversion to ranking pitchers that high, but at some point, you've got to ask yourself what's worse: having mediocre positional prospects filling top spots or having riskier but higher ceiling (and floor) pitchers ranked in there instead. Risk aversion only gets you so far, I think. I could see a good argument to have Skaggs, Bauer, Cole, Hultzen, and Bundy all in the top 15 in lieu of some of those positional guys.

Just my two cents. And as always, don't pay too much attention to any criticism I have. You know more about these guys than I ever will, and I thank you greatly for bringing us the list. You always open my eyes to plenty of players I never even knew about, so please continue!

Thanx as always for your response, Bodhizefa.

Fair points. The top 50 from this list might be a little worse than usual, but not by too much, I think. I did note that there are more pitchers ranked in the top 50 than usual. Also more speed guys in the top 50 than usual. Some of these will fall somewhat but at this point I dont know which ones. From a roto standpoint, they're 'hi-upside' guys that in some cases have some increased risk, too. Personally, I'll assume a bit of that risk to get the upside. I'm less averse to that risk than to the risk you get w pitchers.

I think Hamilton is OK so far; his 2nd half was a lot better than his 1st half. He ended up hitting .278, which isnt bad at all. Of more concern are the amount of K's from a guy that doesnt have power. I think he still projects to be a MLB regular, which is why I still have him as hi as I do.

I am a little reluctant at this point to rank some of the pitchers that havent pitched a pro yet any higher, particularly HSers like D Bundy.

Perhaps Skaggs should be up there w Miller, Moore and Teheran. I want to see what BA says about him first, tho.

[Sour Masher]

Assuming there is no road block, eg Zimmerman moves to 1B, what are his prospects at the hot corner?

Rendon can play 3b well enough to stick there for a long time, but he isn't as good defensively as Zimmerman, so I don't see Zimmerman moving for Rendon.

[onejayhawk]

Guys I snagged off WW. I will probably keep 3-4.

12 Anthony Rizzo 1B SD -6 6
13 Brett Jackson OF CHC 4 17
34 Leonys Martin OF Tex 35 69
37 Paul Goldschmidt 1B Ari 30 67
41 Randall Delgado SP Atl -4 37
60 Zach Cozart SS Cin NA NA
Drew Pomeranz

I also picked up Lorenzo Cain. If he were eligible, where would he rank?

If Pomeranz is a rotation regular, and he looks to get a shot, shouldnt he still be on the list, even in Coors?

J