CBA '21-'22 Thread

[revo]

Here's the latest stances from MLB Trade Rumors:

Minimum Salary
MLB: $630K, or fixed $615K/$650K/$725K salaries for 0-3 players
MLBPA: $775K
Current gap: $145K

Competitive Balance Tax
MLB: Base tax thresholds at $214MM in 2022/ $214MM in 2023/ $216MM in 2024 / $218MM in 2025 / $222MM in 2026. Also proposing significant increases in tax rates on overages and new draft pick penalties.
MLBPA: $245MM in 2022 / $252MM in 2023 / $259MM in 2024 / $266MM in 2025 / $273MM in 2026
Current gap: $31MM in 2022, growing to $51MM in 2026. Gap also includes MLB’s proposed increases in tax rates and addition of draft pick forfeiture

Draft Pick Compensation
MLB: Has proposed eliminating draft pick forfeiture for teams that sign free agents. Their plan still calls for teams to get draft picks for losing free agents, depending on the quality of the player. This offer seems to be tied to MLB’s CBT proposal as sort of a trade.

Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool
MLB: $20MM pool. MLB has agreed to fund a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, which would be a new addition to the CBA. They have proposed “a six-person panel — three from each side — to develop a mutually agreeable WAR statistic to allocate the funds,” according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. He adds, “The top 30 players in WAR and award winners would be eligible for the bonus pool.”
MLBPA: $115MM pool, distributed to 150 players.
Current gap: $95MM

Arbitration Eligibility
MLB: No change in which players are eligible for arbitration. In the previous CBA, the top 22% of 2+ players were arbitration eligible, known as Super Two players.
MLBPA: Top 80% of players in the 2+ service class eligible for arbitration

Service Time Manipulation
MLB: Offering two draft picks within the player’s first three years if he finishes in the top three in Cy Young, Rookie of the Year or MVP voting (per Jesse Rogers)
MLBPA: “Players receive a full year of service time in their rookie season if infielders and catchers finish among the top seven for their position in WAR in each league, with outfielders, relief pitchers and starting pitchers finishing among the top 20. The union also said it would accept a modification of MLB’s proposal that would reward draft pick compensation to teams whose players finish among the top three in the Rookie of the Year, MVP and Cy Young voting.” (per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale)

Anti-Tanking Measures
MLB: Lottery for top four picks
MLBPA: Lottery for top eight picks. Under the union’s offer, teams would find themselves excluded from the lottery for finishing below certain thresholds in the standings for two to three consecutive seasons. The specific thresholds for exclusion varied depending upon market size, with larger-market clubs facing stricter requirements for lottery eligibility.

Revenue Sharing
MLB: No change to revenue sharing
MLBPA: $30MM reduction

Expanded Playoffs
MLB: 14 teams
MLBPA: 12 teams

Universal Designated Hitter
This seems to be generally agreed upon by both sides.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

[revo]

Seems easy to work out:

Minimum Salary
MLB: $630K, or fixed $615K/$650K/$725K salaries for 0-3 players
MLBPA: $775K
Revo proposal: $705k

Competitive Balance Tax
MLB: Base tax thresholds at $214MM in 2022/ $214MM in 2023/ $216MM in 2024 / $218MM in 2025 / $222MM in 2026. Also proposing significant increases in tax rates on overages and new draft pick penalties.
MLBPA: $245MM in 2022 / $252MM in 2023 / $259MM in 2024 / $266MM in 2025 / $273MM in 2026
Revo proposal: $230MM, $233MM, $237MM, $242MM, $247MM

Draft Pick Compensation
MLB: Has proposed eliminating draft pick forfeiture for teams that sign free agents. Their plan still calls for teams to get draft picks for losing free agents, depending on the quality of the player. This offer seems to be tied to MLB’s CBT proposal as sort of a trade.
Revo proposal: eliminate entirely, MLB uses this as a trade for a get elsewhere

Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool
MLB: $20MM pool. MLB has agreed to fund a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, which would be a new addition to the CBA. They have proposed “a six-person panel — three from each side — to develop a mutually agreeable WAR statistic to allocate the funds,” according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. He adds, “The top 30 players in WAR and award winners would be eligible for the bonus pool.”
MLBPA: $115MM pool, distributed to 150 players.
Revo proposal: $67MM, distributed to the top 70 players

Arbitration Eligibility
MLB: No change in which players are eligible for arbitration. In the previous CBA, the top 22% of 2+ players were arbitration eligible, known as Super Two players.
MLBPA: Top 80% of players in the 2+ service class eligible for arbitration
Revo proposal: top 49% of 2+ players

Service Time Manipulation
MLB: Offering two draft picks within the player’s first three years if he finishes in the top three in Cy Young, Rookie of the Year or MVP voting (per Jesse Rogers)
MLBPA: “Players receive a full year of service time in their rookie season if infielders and catchers finish among the top seven for their position in WAR in each league, with outfielders, relief pitchers and starting pitchers finishing among the top 20. The union also said it would accept a modification of MLB’s proposal that would reward draft pick compensation to teams whose players finish among the top three in the Rookie of the Year, MVP and Cy Young voting.” (per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale)
Revo proposal: 1 draft pick and 1/2 year of service time if the player finishes in the top 3

Anti-Tanking Measures
MLB: Lottery for top four picks
MLBPA: Lottery for top eight picks. Under the union’s offer, teams would find themselves excluded from the lottery for finishing below certain thresholds in the standings for two to three consecutive seasons. The specific thresholds for exclusion varied depending upon market size, with larger-market clubs facing stricter requirements for lottery eligibility.
Revo proposal: Lottery for Top 6 picks

Revenue Sharing
MLB: No change to revenue sharing
MLBPA: $30MM reduction
Revo proposal: $15MM reduction

Expanded Playoffs
MLB: 14 teams
MLBPA: 12 teams
Revo proposal: MLB gets 14 teams in return for agreements on rev sharing and anti-tanking


This shit be easy! Get it done!

[Sour Masher]

If only it were that easy. I predict the owners will not go up to those numbers.

Personally, I think 12 teams is better than 14 for playoffs. I think 14 dilutes it too much in a sport with 162 regular season games. But I bet players give in on 14 to get more elsewhere.

I also do not understand what is being offered on the service time manipulation issue by MLB, exactly. What does it mean that the league is offering draft picks? Is that offer a penalty to teams? The players suggestion makes more sense and seems easier to track. I do not understand MLB's counter.

[Ken]

I also do not understand what is being offered on the service time manipulation issue by MLB, exactly. What does it mean that the league is offering draft picks? Is that offer a penalty to teams? The players suggestion makes more sense and seems easier to track. I do not understand MLB's counter.

It's the topic of service time manipulation.

To combat manipulation, MLB is offering extra draft picks for rookies who win awards so that teams are motivated to bring them up earlier as opposed to keeping them down to manipulate service time.

[Sour Masher]

It's the topic of service time manipulation.

To combat manipulation, MLB is offering extra draft picks for rookies who win awards so that teams are motivated to bring them up earlier as opposed to keeping them down to manipulate service time.

Interesting. That could work just as well, so maybe that is an issue that will be easy to agree on. So, really, the big gaps are in the Pre-Arb bonus pool, the luxury tax thresholds, and arb eligibility. I hope they give and take on it quickly and we can get a full season of games in.

[umjewman]

This shit be easy! Get it done!

Counter-proposal: Shut up, jerk!

That's about what I expect out of the negotiations.

[revo]

What's interesting (crazy?) is that MLB's Competitive Balance Tax thresholds proposal does not even budge with inflation, which is now at almost 8%. Figuring the historical 3% rate, their thresholds should be at a minimum:

2022 - $214M
2023 - $220M
2024 - $227M
2025 - $233M
2026 - $241M

[Sour Masher]

What's interesting (crazy?) is that MLB's Competitive Balance Tax thresholds proposal does not even budge with inflation, which is now at almost 8%. Figuring the historical 3% rate, their thresholds should be at a minimum:

2022 - $214M
2023 - $220M
2024 - $227M
2025 - $233M
2026 - $241M

I'm sure the owners would focus on the fact that the current inflation rate is unusual and that for previous decade or so, the rate was closer to 2%, but I do hope owners give some on this one. I could see this being one of the issues that really holds things up. I am surprised that the owners or players haven't countered with a salary floor. It would accomplish the same thing, but have the advantage of more completive balance. A floor of half the tax threshold would be a great thing for players, even if they concede the owners' proposal for the top end.

[Ken]

I'm sure the owners would focus on the fact that the current inflation rate is unusual and that for previous decade or so, the rate was closer to 2%, but I do hope owners give some on this one. I could see this being one of the issues that really holds things up. I am surprised that the owners or players haven't countered with a salary floor. It would accomplish the same thing, but have the advantage of more completive balance. A floor of half the tax threshold would be a great thing for players, even if they concede the owners' proposal for the top end.

Wouldn't be hard to tie it to a market index, but that assumes people are willing to compromise.

[ThatRogue]

Didn’t someone say that MLB won’t agree to a hard salary floor if the players don’t agree to a hard salary cap (which they won’t)? I thought I recalled hearing that somewhere.

[Sour Masher]

Didn’t someone say that MLB won’t agree to a hard salary floor if the players don’t agree to a hard salary cap (which they won’t)? I thought I recalled hearing that somewhere.

They could make it a soft floor with a tax like the ceiling. Really, it would just be a pay back on some of the revenue sharing. But I am sure there is a reason it isn't on the table. The players don't think it is a hill worth dying on, I guess. It just makes more sense to me to give a little on the ceiling numbers if the owners agree to some kind of floor, even a soft one. I never understood how willing everyone involved in baseball is willing to have their sport be the only sport where some teams out spend other teams 3 to 1.

[Sour Masher]

MLB has again asked for mediation and the players again rejected it. I don't take that as a great sign. It seems the owners expect more significant give from the players and reports suggest the gives they have given have come with greater asks elsewhere. I'm not saying they shouldn't be doing that, but it doesn't give me hope for a quick resolution. I guess I should just be happy they are finally meeting in earnest, putting the hours in. What they are doing now should have happened weeks ago, but I guess it was always inevitable that both sides would wait to put the pressure of a fast deadline into play.

[Moonlight J]

The owners are simply not negotiating in good faith. MLBPA should reject every plea for mediation because it's just wagging the dog by the owners. They simply want to get the salary cap they've failed to get each time even though baseball revenues are projected to grow 213% from 2003 to 2026 while the CBT will grow 90%. It's already a de-facto cap since so few teams go or even stay over it, so adding more revenue into the fold while not adjusting the CBT in-kind is just the owners wanting their cake and eating it too.

[madducks]

I never understood how everyone involved in baseball is willing to have their sport be the only sport where some teams out spend other teams 3 to 1.

In 2022, the Mets ($235,999,999) will outspend the Guardians ($29,050,000) and Orioles (29,416,666) by more than 8 to 1 and the Pirates (34,450,000) by nearly 7 to 1. And this disparity is likely to increase once the lockout is over.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

[Sour Masher]

In 2022, the Mets ($235,999,999) will outspend the Guardians ($29,050,000) and Orioles (29,416,666) by more than 8 to 1 and the Pirates (34,450,000) by nearly 7 to 1. And this disparity is likely to increase once the lockout is over.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Yeah, I kept it conservative, because 3x is pretty much the norm between the haves and have nots, but, yeah, it actually gets way worse. It's crazy how many defend the idea that it is okay for one team to outspend another 8 to 1 in some cases.