Official *MLB Season Delayed* Thread

[TranaGreg]

Just read this on Rotoworld--

"Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports that the Blue Jays have received an exemption letter from the federal government and will be allowed to move their training camp to Toronto.
The Jays had been hopeful of getting clearance to move spring training 2.0 from Florida to Toronto and now they've received it. It's not clear yet whether they'll be allowed to play regular season games at Rogers Centre, but that's the goal."

the Jays won't be participating in any pre-season games & are planning on intra-squad games ... looking forward to seeing Nate Pearson pitching to Vladdy!

[rhd]

MLB officially cancelled the AS game. I thought that this was the 1st time the AS game had been cancelled but actually it was also cancelled in 1945, due to travel restriction due to WW 2.

[rhd]

Several more players were diagnosed w CV-19 today, bringing the total # of players to 31. As many cases as there have been in the US, it's still only 0.87% of the population, and the active cases are only 0.37% of the population. Based on the active cases, even counting the taxi squads of MLB teams, which would be 60 players per team, there should be at most only 6-7 players that currently have CV-19. 31 is 4-5 times the US avg. Are baseball players that much more careless about this than the rest of us?

[GwynnInTheHall]

Several more players were diagnosed w CV-19 today, bringing the total # of players to 31. As many cases as there have been in the US, it's still only 0.87% of the population, and the active cases are only 0.37% of the population. Based on the active cases, even counting the taxi squads of MLB teams, which would be 60 players per team, there should be at most only 6-7 players that currently have CV-19. 31 is 4-5 times the US avg. Are baseball players that much more careless about this than the rest of us?

I would say most people 18-35 are less likely to be concerned about the virus in general.

[Sour Masher]

Several more players were diagnosed w CV-19 today, bringing the total # of players to 31. As many cases as there have been in the US, it's still only 0.87% of the population, and the active cases are only 0.37% of the population. Based on the active cases, even counting the taxi squads of MLB teams, which would be 60 players per team, there should be at most only 6-7 players that currently have CV-19. 31 is 4-5 times the US avg. Are baseball players that much more careless about this than the rest of us?

No, I'd say it is just more evidence that there are a lot more cases out there than are reported, which makes perfect sense. Every single member of the general public doesn't get tested all the time, and many people who are sick don't even get tested, let alone asymptomatic cases. Frankly, I'm surprised it is only 4-5 times the average. That tells me we are testing much more and better than we did to start. I thought the number would still be close to 10x the amount.

[rhd]

No, I'd say it is just more evidence that there are a lot more cases out there than are reported, which makes perfect sense. The general public doesn't get tested all the time, and many people who are sick don't even get tested, let alone asymptomatic cases. Frankly, I'm surprised it is only 4-5 times the average. That tells me we are testing much more and better than we did to start. I thought the number would still be close to 10x the amount.

Yep, that's probably right.

[Sour Masher]

Yep, that's probably right.

I think it is safe to say that if every person in the country had been tested since the beginning like baseball players and staff are now, the number of official cases would be a lot closer to 20 million than the nearly 3 million it is at now. Related to that, I've read reports that the mortality rate from the disease is 30% higher than reported, but lots of deaths have fallen through the cracks because of misdiagnosis and poor record keeping, which I think may be low, everything factored in. We likely won't ever know the real number, but I'd bet it is higher than the 132k reported right now.

[rhd]

I've read reports that the mortality rate from the disease is 30% higher than reported, but lots of deaths have fallen through the cracks because of misdiagnosis and poor record keeping, which I think may be low, everything factored in.

Worldwide, this discrepancy is even much higher. In China, it's probably more like 3800% higher due to just plain intentional underreporting.

[Erik]

I think it is safe to say that if every person in the country had been tested since the beginning like baseball players and staff are now, the number of official cases would be a lot closer to 20 million than the nearly 3 million it is at now. Related to that, I've read reports that the mortality rate from the disease is 30% higher than reported, but lots of deaths have fallen through the cracks because of misdiagnosis and poor record keeping, which I think may be low, everything factored in. We likely won't ever know the real number, but I'd bet it is higher than the 132k reported right now.

The raw count of deaths is most certainly higher than what has been reported. The mortality rate, who the hell knows, because not only is the numerator (deaths) unreliable, so is the denominator (cases). If anything, it may be dramatically lower than assumed, if the denominator is 20 million instead of 3 million -- 667% higher. Is the actual number of COVID deaths more than 667% higher than 132K? Probably not.

[The Feral Slasher]

Several more players were diagnosed w CV-19 today, bringing the total # of players to 31. As many cases as there have been in the US, it's still only 0.87% of the population, and the active cases are only 0.37% of the population. Based on the active cases, even counting the taxi squads of MLB teams, which would be 60 players per team, there should be at most only 6-7 players that currently have CV-19. 31 is 4-5 times the US avg. Are baseball players that much more careless about this than the rest of us?

Well they are probably getting tested more. But they could also be careless or working with other people since they can't work remote

[Sour Masher]

The raw count of deaths is most certainly higher than what has been reported. The mortality rate, who the hell knows, because not only is the numerator (deaths) unreliable, so is the denominator (cases). If anything, it may be dramatically lower than assumed, if the denominator is 20 million instead of 3 million -- 667% higher. Is the actual number of COVID deaths more than 667% higher than 132K? Probably not.

I meant mortality, not mortality rate. My bad. Yes, the mortality rate is a good bit lower than what we are seeing in the numbers, because the number of cases is much higher, even if the number of deaths is also higher.

[DMT]

I meant mortality, not mortality rate. My bad. Yes, the mortality rate is a good bit lower than what we are seeing in the numbers, because the number of cases is much higher, even if the number of deaths is also higher.

The lower mortality rate we've been seeing is likely a mirage.

https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880?s=20

[Kevin Seitzer]

The lower mortality rate we've been seeing is likely a mirage.

https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/...160634880?s=20

I think it's still unclear. Yes, deaths are trending up in the South and Southwest, but not commensurate with the increase in cases. We expect a lag, but if it was going to look like it did in NYC or New Orleans or Detroit, I think we would have seen more indications of that already.

I expect a surge in deaths to come yet, but at least the early indications are that it won't be as big, as a percentage of the number of cases, as it was in the first wave in March and April.

[cavebird]

I think it's still unclear. Yes, deaths are trending up in the South and Southwest, but not commensurate with the increase in cases. We expect a lag, but if it was going to look like it did in NYC or New Orleans or Detroit, I think we would have seen more indications of that already.

I expect a surge in deaths to come yet, but at least the early indications are that it won't be as big, as a percentage of the number of cases, as it was in the first wave in March and April.

Which makes sense as this wave involves more younger people, and doctors have had more chances to improve treatment techniques.

[cavebird]

Several more players were diagnosed w CV-19 today, bringing the total # of players to 31. As many cases as there have been in the US, it's still only 0.87% of the population, and the active cases are only 0.37% of the population. Based on the active cases, even counting the taxi squads of MLB teams, which would be 60 players per team, there should be at most only 6-7 players that currently have CV-19. 31 is 4-5 times the US avg. Are baseball players that much more careless about this than the rest of us?

The one I worry about the most so far is Freddie Freeman. Not because of how this hurts my Braves (that's a separate worry) but because he tested negative before arriving to camp and tested positive when he got there. Is this going to spread around camp so bad that the whole thing gets called off? Definitely a worry.