Originally posted by Don Quixote
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It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.
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Several more players were diagnosed w CV-19 today, bringing the total # of players to 31. As many cases as there have been in the US, it's still only 0.87% of the population, and the active cases are only 0.37% of the population. Based on the active cases, even counting the taxi squads of MLB teams, which would be 60 players per team, there should be at most only 6-7 players that currently have CV-19. 31 is 4-5 times the US avg. Are baseball players that much more careless about this than the rest of us?
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Originally posted by rhd View PostSeveral more players were diagnosed w CV-19 today, bringing the total # of players to 31. As many cases as there have been in the US, it's still only 0.87% of the population, and the active cases are only 0.37% of the population. Based on the active cases, even counting the taxi squads of MLB teams, which would be 60 players per team, there should be at most only 6-7 players that currently have CV-19. 31 is 4-5 times the US avg. Are baseball players that much more careless about this than the rest of us?If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
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Originally posted by rhd View PostSeveral more players were diagnosed w CV-19 today, bringing the total # of players to 31. As many cases as there have been in the US, it's still only 0.87% of the population, and the active cases are only 0.37% of the population. Based on the active cases, even counting the taxi squads of MLB teams, which would be 60 players per team, there should be at most only 6-7 players that currently have CV-19. 31 is 4-5 times the US avg. Are baseball players that much more careless about this than the rest of us?
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostNo, I'd say it is just more evidence that there are a lot more cases out there than are reported, which makes perfect sense. The general public doesn't get tested all the time, and many people who are sick don't even get tested, let alone asymptomatic cases. Frankly, I'm surprised it is only 4-5 times the average. That tells me we are testing much more and better than we did to start. I thought the number would still be close to 10x the amount.
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Originally posted by rhd View PostYep, that's probably right.
I think it is safe to say that if every person in the country had been tested since the beginning like baseball players and staff are now, the number of official cases would be a lot closer to 20 million than the nearly 3 million it is at now. Related to that, I've read reports that the mortality rate from the disease is 30% higher than reported, but lots of deaths have fallen through the cracks because of misdiagnosis and poor record keeping, which I think may be low, everything factored in. We likely won't ever know the real number, but I'd bet it is higher than the 132k reported right now.
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostI've read reports that the mortality rate from the disease is 30% higher than reported, but lots of deaths have fallen through the cracks because of misdiagnosis and poor record keeping, which I think may be low, everything factored in.
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostI think it is safe to say that if every person in the country had been tested since the beginning like baseball players and staff are now, the number of official cases would be a lot closer to 20 million than the nearly 3 million it is at now. Related to that, I've read reports that the mortality rate from the disease is 30% higher than reported, but lots of deaths have fallen through the cracks because of misdiagnosis and poor record keeping, which I think may be low, everything factored in. We likely won't ever know the real number, but I'd bet it is higher than the 132k reported right now.Originally posted by Kevin SeitzerWe pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.
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Originally posted by rhd View PostSeveral more players were diagnosed w CV-19 today, bringing the total # of players to 31. As many cases as there have been in the US, it's still only 0.87% of the population, and the active cases are only 0.37% of the population. Based on the active cases, even counting the taxi squads of MLB teams, which would be 60 players per team, there should be at most only 6-7 players that currently have CV-19. 31 is 4-5 times the US avg. Are baseball players that much more careless about this than the rest of us?---------------------------------------------
Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
George Orwell, 1984
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Originally posted by Erik View PostThe raw count of deaths is most certainly higher than what has been reported. The mortality rate, who the hell knows, because not only is the numerator (deaths) unreliable, so is the denominator (cases). If anything, it may be dramatically lower than assumed, if the denominator is 20 million instead of 3 million -- 667% higher. Is the actual number of COVID deaths more than 667% higher than 132K? Probably not.
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostI meant mortality, not mortality rate. My bad. Yes, the mortality rate is a good bit lower than what we are seeing in the numbers, because the number of cases is much higher, even if the number of deaths is also higher.
If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige
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Originally posted by DMT View PostThe lower mortality rate we've been seeing is likely a mirage.
https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/...160634880?s=20
I expect a surge in deaths to come yet, but at least the early indications are that it won't be as big, as a percentage of the number of cases, as it was in the first wave in March and April."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"
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Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostI think it's still unclear. Yes, deaths are trending up in the South and Southwest, but not commensurate with the increase in cases. We expect a lag, but if it was going to look like it did in NYC or New Orleans or Detroit, I think we would have seen more indications of that already.
I expect a surge in deaths to come yet, but at least the early indications are that it won't be as big, as a percentage of the number of cases, as it was in the first wave in March and April.
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Originally posted by rhd View PostSeveral more players were diagnosed w CV-19 today, bringing the total # of players to 31. As many cases as there have been in the US, it's still only 0.87% of the population, and the active cases are only 0.37% of the population. Based on the active cases, even counting the taxi squads of MLB teams, which would be 60 players per team, there should be at most only 6-7 players that currently have CV-19. 31 is 4-5 times the US avg. Are baseball players that much more careless about this than the rest of us?
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