2k20: Jose Ramirez

[joncarlos]

Also known as the "holy crap, did you see his Fanraphs projections?" thread.

2018: 698pa, 270/387/522, 39 HR, 34 SB, 110 R, 105 RBI
2019: 542pa, 255/327/479, 23 HR, 24 SB, 68 R, 83 RBI

ATC projection: 636pa, .276-30-97-92r-26sb
THE BAT projection: 649pa, .280-31-95-98-23sb
Steamer projection: 648pa, .278-31-101-96r-23sb

Part of that is the PAs... yeah, he was "only" 26/23 last year but if you project that out to 640pa that's 27 HR and 28 SB.

His BABIP was kind of unspectacular in BOTH 2018 and 2019 (.252 and .256) but the difference in AVG was the homers. I know he was dreadful in the first half and amazing in the 2nd half last year (.327 with 16 HR in 178 PA after the break)... so the assumption is that it kinda worked itself out in the end and he'll be close to his 2018 self again.

Those projections would make him a firm first round pick. Lindor is projected at .284-32-98-94r-16sb by THE BAT and SS is arguably deeper than 3B.

Is J-Ram really that good?

[chancellor]

He should be, but the risk given how awful he was in the first half needs to be accounted for. Per the Lindor comparison, I'm not sure why they have him so low for SBs. I think Steamer is a better projection for Lindor.

[Gregg]

He is that good says the AL only $40 owner.

[Controller Jacobs]

In a late-2019 game I was listening to last year, the Cleveland announcers indicated that they thought the issue was him trying to adjust to the shift, and when he finally gave up he went back to being himself.

That would explain why he still played 3B and still got SBs during the first half of the year - hard to do that if you have an injury or other physical issues like declining vision.

[Controller Jacobs]

He should be, but the risk given how awful he was in the first half needs to be accounted for. Per the Lindor comparison, I'm not sure why they have him so low for SBs. I think Steamer is a better projection for Lindor.

2019:
1st half: 84 GS, 0.652 OPS, 18/21 SB
2nd half: 44 GS, 1.105 OPS, 6/7 SB

They may have over-used his 2nd half for the SB projections - hard to get a lot of steals when 35/54 hits are for extra bases.