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**Sharky** · 03-17-2019, 11:41 PM

1) I love you man, but wow that was an essay
2) Bottom line: you need to go with what the auction gives you. Could be the two star strategy, could’ve something different. Impossible to map out in advance with certainty, but can develop a couple of illustrative scenarios.

**DMT** · 03-18-2019, 12:25 AM

I think you gotta consider going after the Stars unless they are way overpriced. No reason to get yourself boxed in by passing on them only to see your "balanced" targets go higher than you thought.

**ssmallz** · 03-18-2019, 12:43 AM

Sorry but I don't think anyone can give you a concrete answer here because there are too many variables. I'll try to tell you how I would attack the problem and hopefully that will give you a jumping off point. First off, the premise that in a shallow league you should always go stars and scrubs vs a deep league there needs to be balance is false. A shallow league by definition has more $$ concentrated on fewer players and since the replacement level is so high, the stars should be priced higher relative the rest of the player pool. This is not the same as saying that a stars and scrubs route is the optimal strategy for a shallow league. Take an extreme example of a 12 team redraft league with $260/team where each 1st round player goes for $100 each. In this situation you're much better off letting your opponents spend $100 on their "stars" while you pick up the 2nd tier guys on the cheap b/c they don't have any money. The only time it really makes sense to reach is when there's just not enough talent left for you to spend $$ on.

You should start by making sure you have accurate auction values and this means accurately adjusting your predraft values for inflation. Once you have this you can design a sketch of where you think you should spend money based on your needs and the tendencies of your league mates. This is your main league and it sounds like you have an idea of how your league values players and how the other owners act so integrate that into your draft plan. An example is that in my league there's always at least 1 team with way too much money left at the end of the auction and owners can be a bit timid at the beginning of the draft. To combat this I know I need to be more aggressive on stars early and hope to find a few bargains before people realize they have too much money left. I also know I can't count on getting any late round sleepers because other teams will likely have more $$ to spend than me so I need to have way more late round targets than I think. Just remember, there's only a finite amount of $$ out there to spend so if all the stars are going for 10 or 20% over what you think they should there will be bargains later. If there aren't then your inflation calculation was off

Your goal should always be the maximize the talent you can acquire by getting as many bargains as possible sometimes the best way to do that is to go more of a stars and scrubs strategy and sometimes that means being more balanced. The bottom line is that if you have accurate auction values you should be largely indifferent to spending $100 split between 2 stars and 1 scrub or 3 mid priced players.

**joncarlos** · 03-18-2019, 06:50 AM

I mean, to some extent, if you stick to your values, the money isn't really gone. Focus on the stars, and get 1 or 2 if they're reasonable. If they all go crazy, there must be some values available in the next tier down. Even if it's pitching, or a position you don't need, or something. Then you have to decide if it's worth spending on something you don't need and hoping to trade. It's all going to be fluid but I do agree that it's unfortunate for you that the stars have to come out first and that doesn't work with your plan.

**Judge Jude** · 03-18-2019, 08:28 AM

"You should start by making sure you have accurate auction values and this means accurately adjusting your predraft values for inflation."

yes, that is most fundamental. especially early on, be willing to take pretty much ANYONE who you can get below that inflated price (software that recalculates after each player is good, if it doesn't distract - and it might). I had a year where we went 3 rounds without a single player going for less than full inflated value. but I was ready just in case, and in other years I've grabbed 3 players in the first round. take what the auction gives you.

can also help to have a single sheet (or file) with estimated price points for each slot (sounds like you'll lock in for a buck at C and presumably a few P slots and maybe MI too). if you pay 38 for a stud P and your top slot was 32, take 6 away from another slot or divvy it up. if you pay 8 for the 12-unit OF slot, add 4 somewhere else. that helps you see what you're chasing. ideally you also shift if you listed 15 for a 3B and you see there are no good ones left. move a dozen units to slots with good targets remaining.

rinse, and repeat.

**Mithrandir** · 03-18-2019, 08:32 AM

Is it better to overpay for a stud or underpay for the next tier or two down? Frankly I don't mind overpaying for studs as they seem more likely to produce close to what you expect.

I'm sort of in the same boat as Cavebird in my 14 team mixed. I already kept 3 pricey studs in JD, Stanton and Degrom for $157 ($300 budget). I am tempted to go after another pricey stud and just fill out my roster with what I can get. One can usually hit on a few end game players to make this strategy work.

For example out of the consensus top 30 SP in my league the only ones that will be available at the auction will be Kershaw, Thor, Strasburg, Archer, and Madbum. I am toying with the idea of going all out to get Thor (stay healthy please) to have him and Degrom (I also kept Lucchesi and Stripling). The lower tiers of SP all seem to have pitchers that just blend together so I can take a flyer on a few of them for cheap.

Or do I go all out for another stud hitter to go with Stanton and JD. Betts, Lindor, Altuve, Machado, Goldy, Blackmon, Bryant, Rizzo. Marte, and Rendon are available.

Or just fill in my roster with those 2nd and 3rd tier players that i might get for better prices/values?

It's easier to dominate pitching cats, but riskier.

But like others have said, who knows how the auction will flow???

**cavebird** · 03-18-2019, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by ssmallz View Post

Sorry but I don't think anyone can give you a concrete answer here because there are too many variables. I'll try to tell you how I would attack the problem and hopefully that will give you a jumping off point. First off, the premise that in a shallow league you should always go stars and scrubs vs a deep league there needs to be balance is false. A shallow league by definition has more $$ concentrated on fewer players and since the replacement level is so high, the stars should be priced higher relative the rest of the player pool. This is not the same as saying that a stars and scrubs route is the optimal strategy for a shallow league. Take an extreme example of a 12 team redraft league with $260/team where each 1st round player goes for $100 each. In this situation you're much better off letting your opponents spend $100 on their "stars" while you pick up the 2nd tier guys on the cheap b/c they don't have any money. The only time it really makes sense to reach is when there's just not enough talent left for you to spend $$ on.

You should start by making sure you have accurate auction values and this means accurately adjusting your predraft values for inflation. Once you have this you can design a sketch of where you think you should spend money based on your needs and the tendencies of your league mates. This is your main league and it sounds like you have an idea of how your league values players and how the other owners act so integrate that into your draft plan. An example is that in my league there's always at least 1 team with way too much money left at the end of the auction and owners can be a bit timid at the beginning of the draft. To combat this I know I need to be more aggressive on stars early and hope to find a few bargains before people realize they have too much money left. I also know I can't count on getting any late round sleepers because other teams will likely have more $$ to spend than me so I need to have way more late round targets than I think. Just remember, there's only a finite amount of $$ out there to spend so if all the stars are going for 10 or 20% over what you think they should there will be bargains later. If there aren't then your inflation calculation was off

Your goal should always be the maximize the talent you can acquire by getting as many bargains as possible sometimes the best way to do that is to go more of a stars and scrubs strategy and sometimes that means being more balanced. The bottom line is that if you have accurate auction values you should be largely indifferent to spending $100 split between 2 stars and 1 scrub or 3 mid priced players.

Thanks for all the responses everyone; I am responding to this one since it was the first long one, but I'll more or less respond to all. I understand your point about shallow leagues and stars and scrubs not always being best because everyone is doing it. I wasn't really going that deep in my analysis, just making the brief point that it is usually the obvious strategy in such leagues if it can be done properly (which in a league with good enough competition, it can't).

I understand that having good projections/values is crucial. And to answer others, I use Rotolab which keeps up with inflation very nicely. And yes, I know the habits of many in the league, although some are an enigma, wildly changing from year to year (which keeps things interesting). Alas, ssmaltz, we don't have the conservative bids early; money flows early and often. Bargains can sometimes show up in the mid-range, but usually they are concentrated in the lower range---I know I can get $10 players for $3 or less eventually (although not necessarily the ones I want, it only takes two to tango---somebody in the league is going to get "Neil-ed" a bunch in every year (Neil is the guy who hoards his money), and at that point you just hope that your targets are not his); other bargains are random.
To answer a comment Judge Jude made---you are right on my $1 slots, except for speculating that I might have some at MI---my MI is full with keepers---if that's where the value is this year, I can't really do anything about that except for my one utility slot.

But really, my question was broader than just my individual league. It was more general---how much is it worth the risk in trying a "better" strategy that could backfire because you cannot revert to the next best strategy due to that stupid space-time continuum (one second per second forward thing) is that one doesn't work versus going with the "safer" strategy that allows for the fall back option if it does not work? Or is an auction not really amenable to such grand strategies and just a collection of small tactical decisions on each player available that should be maximized?

**Ken** · 03-18-2019, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by cavebird View Post

how much is it worth the risk in trying a "better" strategy that could backfire because you cannot revert to the next best strategy due to that stupid space-time continuum (one second per second forward thing) is that one doesn't work versus going with the "safer" strategy that allows for the fall back option if it does not work?

Eleven. It is worth eleven.

**Sharky** · 03-18-2019, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by Ken View Post

Eleven. It is worth eleven.

Lol. Good one.

CB, the how much is it worth to try a zany strategy depends on your keepers, etc. if you’re already behind, the Hail Mary pass is a reasonyapproach. Another factor is league rules and implications for trading and rebuilding.

**The Dane** · 03-18-2019, 04:52 PM

I've decided some things about fantasy baseball in my decades of playing. They are mainly predicated on the idea that winning titles is not the only fun thing about this activity. It's undoubtedly the most fun thing, but not the only. Rebuilding a team in a competitive keeper league is also very fun. It's fun being a buyer or seller at the deadline. Snagging young minor leaguers who make it big before anyone knows them is really fun. Lots about this game is fun, not only the winning. Don't take this to mean I don't care about winning; I do. A lot. My hard-fought titles will attest to that, as will my countless hours of reading about and watching baseball and baseball analysis. It's just that, for me, I can have fun not winning as well.

With this in mind, here are my draft rules:

1. Don't draft players you don't like, even if they're cheap. I don't enjoy being in the position of rooting for wife-beaters or drunk drivers. Drug use doesn't bother me as much, so I'll draft a pothead or PED user well before I'd draft a guy who whips his young son in the testicles. I'm not making a moral judgment here. If you have no problem with such things and draft only the stats, that's fine. I'm just saying it's more fun to draft the player you can cheer for unequivocally.

2. Draft players you like, even if you have to pay full price... but don't go crazy. This is the opposite of Rule 1. When I'm watching games or interviews, I want to see a guy and think "that's my player" and be proud. Like how I imagine every time Greg Morhardt watches Trout cross another historical milestone, he thinks to himself, "I scouted that guy." If the player is well-spoken or smart or charitable or funny, all the more better. Miles Mikolas ate a live lizard on camera. He's perfect for my team. This said, don't be stupid. Don't draft a player who can't help your team just because you like his beard. For example, as a public school advocate, I've never had Curtis Granderson on a team, because when he came to the NL (most of my leagues are NL-only), he was either super-hyped and expensive or washed-up.

3. Try to get a hometown player. Same idea as Rule 2. In this vein, I try to always have at least one Giant/A on my teams. It's a secondary concern, but it makes watching team broadcasts more fun. For me, it's usually some bench player, rather than a star, because in my local leagues, everyone wants Giants/As. In the RJEL yesterday, which is a mostly-East-Coast league, I ended up with Bumgarner ($25), Samardzija ($4) and Panik ($1). Panik goes for double-digits around here and so he's never on my teams.

4. Know the player pool. I think a lot of us spend too much time doing unnecessary math. All the dollars are going to be spent on all the players in the pool. Every dollar saved on a first round talent that went a few dollars cheaper will get spent on a lower guy. With that in mind, calculate how many players must get drafted at CI, at MI, etc., and draw a line. If there are players below the line that you would happily have on your roster for a buck, then spend elsewhere. Knowing the pool, who is available and what their general skill sets are, is all you need to have a moderately-successful draft. Knowing more is good, certainly, but if you can't see the end of the draft before you start, you'll end up with a team you won't like past the initial stages of the draft.

5. Pitchers are assholes. I don't need to tell statheads this, but statistically, pitchers are very poor investments. You have to have them on your team, but they are miserable no-good rotten people who, more often than not, ruin perfectly good fantasy teams. Really. Injuries are anathema to the position and avoiding them is almost purely luck. They all miss time when you choose to pay full price for them. It never fails. So, don't pay too much for any one pitcher and be ready to ditch them and replace them. Relievers are nearly impossible to predict. They can be lights-out one year and gascans the next. Peel them off without much worry. I usually don't make hard 65/35 budget splits or anything, because I like to see what the draft gives me, but I often end up just around there. (I was 62/38 in RJEL, but most of my keeper value [nine of ten] was in hitters.) And don't get me started on closers...

6. In deep leagues, draft roles and skills. I know the maxim is "draft skills, not roles" but in a truly deep league, roles totally matter. If you're playing in an NL or AL league drafting who has the job is better if you're competing for this year. If you're in it for the future, go ahead and draft a kid with upside. That said, don't draft Dom Smith over Pete Alonso, regardless of who makes the team out of ST. That would just be stupid. Don't forget: Over the last seven years as a Pirate, Jordy Mercer hit 55 homeruns and stole 13 bases and generated 7.5 career WAR. Very meager stats, by any measure, but considerably more than any other Pirate shortstop over that span. Any draft dollars spent on a PIT SS that wasn't Mercer for the last seven years was a complete waste of resources. Roles do matter.

7. East Coast media bias is a thing. Not sure how much East Coasters can see this, because they're right in the middle of it, but if you watch national media, you get a really skewed view of baseball. A couple of years ago, a pal of mine and I started logging the amount of times "Bryce Harper" and "Mike Trout" were mentioned on MLB Network. Don't have the numbers at hand, but Harper was mentioned about nine times the rate Trout was mentioned. If you only watched the network, you'd assume Harper was nine times the player, and while Harper is a fine talent, Trout is undeniably the best player in the game. This isn't grousing from a Best Coast guy. I often use this to my advantage. East Coast players (especially AL East players) will often go a few dollars more than they should, and conversely, West Coast players go for a few dollars less than they should. It's not some vast conspiracy or anything. It's just the games out here come on so late out there that most East Coasters really don't get to see as much of the West Coast games as West Coasters get to see of the East Coast games. So, naturally, you'll value higher what you see the most. Being situated out here gives the fantasy baseball player a good perspective of the whole league. You can get that on the East Coast, but you have to work harder at it.

8. Be in more than one league. Like I said above, winning is great and rebuilding is fun too. More leagues means more of both. Plus, in reality, if you're doing the research to draft an -only league, you can do an additional draft with little-to-no additional preparation. And the drafts are the best part. If you're doing all the research for only one draft, it's a very low ratio of work to fun. So, I say join several leagues that all share the same format. You do the same amount of work, but have more fun. You make more friends. You crack more jokes. You eat more pizza and M&Ms. You enjoy more of why we do this.

9. Live drafts are worth more than gold. My longtime live-draft league died this year. It started in '86. It was getting too hard to keep it alive, so we gave it up. This is a true shame, because these are the experiences that made this activity worth doing. If you can find a live league draft, join. Immediately.

I probably have more but I'm not thinking of them right now...

**Ken** · 03-18-2019, 04:59 PM

Wow Dane, that is just gold. Great, great post!

**Gregg** · 03-18-2019, 05:19 PM

Nice job Dane.

For me #4 is the key to the way I play the game and #9 is the why I play the game.

Auction Day is one of the most fun things I do all year.

**Sour Masher** · 03-18-2019, 05:21 PM

In terms of the optimal risk-reward mix, my thinking is that the better your keepers, the less risk you need to take, so the less risk you should take. I'm in the same boat--a good sized mixed league. I plan on taking the middle strategy you outline of getting one elite stud at almost any cost, and then maximizing value with the rest of my auction money. In my league, that works well. I tend to spend about half my budget on one guy early, one of the best available at the position I need most. Then I wait out much of the middle, sniping any mid-tier values I see. Then at the end, I don't want to be the guy with a boatload of cash, but I want to have a few extra bucks to pick up my sleepers. This is where I take risk in a situation like yours. Everyone wants to gamble, but I'd rather gamble by spending 2-3 on a lottery ticket rather than spend a big chunk of change on gambling on Donaldson being what he once was, or Kershaw. I don't want to risk that kind of coin on a potential bust if I feel playing it safe gets me a contender.

But as others have said, sometimes the best laid plans don't work out. I really want one of the aces in my auction, and will pay full blown retail for them, but if they go for way over what I estimate they are worth, I'm going to have to zig when others are zagging. I hate when it happens, but it happens.

**Judge Jude** · 03-18-2019, 05:32 PM

"In terms of the optimal risk-reward mix, my thinking is that the better your keepers, the less risk you need to take, so the less risk you should take."

exactly. the best freeze list I ever had was about 15 years ago. I didn't need any "breaks" - just boring stats. So I bought one boring Placido Polanco type after another, and I was home free. all I had to do at that point was roll out the baseballs.

conversely when my freeze list sucks (see below), I'm willing to dart around in the auction like a squirrel in traffic if need be. gotta confuse the rivals somehow....

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