2K19 Offseason Rumor Thread

[revo]

n.l. people, tell me what to like about that haul for the M's

Kelenic is their 2018 1st rounder and Dunn is their 2016 1st rounder. Kelenic is their top hitting prospect and Dunn their #3 pitching prospect.

The Mets seem to be getting brutalized by both fans and rival GMs for this potential deal.

[TranaGreg]

Kelenic is their 2018 1st rounder and Dunn is their 2016 1st rounder. Kelenic is their top hitting prospect and Dunn their #3 pitching prospect.

The Mets seem to be getting brutalized by both fans and rival GMs for this potential deal.

fwiw BA rated Kelenic 4th, behind Giminez (SS), Alonso (1B), and Mauricio (SS)

solid prospects included but with the year Diaz had I'm a bit surprised another team hasn't bettered the offer

[harmon]

I might luck out on this trade. With our NL Only rules I would end up with a $10 Cano as comp for Bautista. I pcked up Bautista at our trade deadline as a flyer in the event he got traded to the AL for something decent. Actually had forgotten he was on my roster until his name surfaced in this deal.

The Bruce owner in our league would get Diaz as comp with a $22 salary.....nice in our 4x4.

[Ken]

fwiw BA rated Kelenic 4th, behind Giminez (SS), Alonso (1B), and Mauricio (SS)

solid prospects included but with the year Diaz had I'm a bit surprised another team hasn't bettered the offer

Doesn't the Cano contract more than make up for Diaz? The primary reason for the trade is a salary dump of Cano. If Diaz had not had that ridiculous year last year, he would not be nearly enough to offset the negative value of the overpriced Cano contract.

[umjewman]

Doesn't the Cano contract more than make up for Diaz? The primary reason for the trade is a salary dump of Cano. If Diaz had not had that ridiculous year last year, he would not be nearly enough to offset the negative value of the overpriced Cano contract.

The last rumor I read had the Mariners eating up to 1/2 of the Cano contract. If Cano is coming aboard at 5 years for 60 million, that's not bad. He's still pretty good, just not $25 million a year good.

[TranaGreg]

yeah, I guess it all depends on how much cash is included to offset Cano's salary; if it's half I mostly agree that at 12.5M Cano's not a bad gamble, but he is 36 ... with five more years on that contract he likely won't be worth that in his 39-40-41 years ... looking at this closer I can see Ken's point more & more ...

edit: I'm looking at this from a city that has to pay $20M to each of Russell Martin & Tulo this year

[Sour Masher]

The last rumor I read had the Mariners eating up to 1/2 of the Cano contract. If Cano is coming aboard at 5 years for 60 million, that's not bad. He's still pretty good, just not $25 million a year good.

Yeah, I'm shocked people are down on the Mets for this deal. I think it is a great deal for them. The prospects are good, but not really special. Diaz is the best young closer in the game, and Cano is still solid and with the Mariners eating half his money due, I don't see him as having negative value, at least over the next couple of years. The Mets have clearly gotten better with this deal. They have the money to spend. I'd assume fans of the Mets would love this deal.

[harmon]

Yeah, I'm shocked people are down on the Mets for this deal. I think it is a great deal for them. The prospects are good, but not really special. Diaz is the best young closer in the game, and Cano is still solid and with the Mariners eating half his money due, I don't see him as having negative value, at least over the next couple of years. The Mets have clearly gotten better with this deal. They have the money to spend. I'd assume fans of the Mets would love this deal.

If I was a Mets fan I would love it.

I wonder if McNeil becomes Johan Comargo this year, or maybe ends up elsewhere?

[Ken]

Yeah, I'm shocked people are down on the Mets for this deal. I think it is a great deal for them.

I tend to agree

The prospects are good, but not really special.

I agree that there's not a top 10 overall prospect being talked about here, but I think Kelenic has a chance to be special. He's not close to ready though, so there's the typical prospect discount that applies here. The idea that Kelenic isn't special may not age well.

Diaz is the best young closer in the game

It's interesting to me how reliever prices fluctuate over time. There have been times over the last 20 years where "closers" are highly valued and paid as such. Then other times when baseball realizes that for the most part closers are just high end relief pitchers, and relief pitchers are primarily just pitchers who could not hack it as starters (over generalizing I know).

And now we are in an era where we have an abundance of dominant relievers who don't even close. And last year we had pitchers who both closed games and started games (Romo, Martinez).

The perceived value of a reliever, and more specifically a closer is still up for debate in my opinion.

[revo]

Here's Joel Sherman's take:

"Brodie Van Wagenen insisted he would be bold and unafraid in his quest to make the Mets winners in 2019 and into the future.

His first major trade is showing just how fearless he is, because the move is being widely criticized in the industry and generally panned on social media by his fan base.

It is hard to assess a trade until all the details and explanations are complete, until subsequent maneuvers made possible by that deal are completed and until a few years go by to escape the hot take and learn for certain who won or lost. But in real time, the Mets were being brutalized. Even with a new administration, they seemed cast back into that familiar bubble in which what makes sense to them does not to the industry and public."

https://nypost.com/2018/11/29/brodie-van-wagenen-not-scared-of-making-unpopular-deal/

[TranaGreg]

check out this dude's tweet from 2013 when the Mariners signed Cano to a 10 year deal ... and he's a former Mets writer!!! ...

[Sour Masher]

Here's Joel Sherman's take:

"Brodie Van Wagenen insisted he would be bold and unafraid in his quest to make the Mets winners in 2019 and into the future.

His first major trade is showing just how fearless he is, because the move is being widely criticized in the industry and generally panned on social media by his fan base.

It is hard to assess a trade until all the details and explanations are complete, until subsequent maneuvers made possible by that deal are completed and until a few years go by to escape the hot take and learn for certain who won or lost. But in real time, the Mets were being brutalized. Even with a new administration, they seemed cast back into that familiar bubble in which what makes sense to them does not to the industry and public."
https://nypost.com/2018/11/29/brodie...npopular-deal/

I think some of the reaction is because this is the Mets, and we are conditioned to expect their moves to suck. Given the fact that the Mariners are paying half of Cano's contract, and the fact that Diaz is elite and relatively affordable, even in arbitration, I think the Mets did well here. It shouldn't be forgotten that they also dumped Bruce in this deal, who is set to make 10 mill, 13 mil, 13 mil. So, after 2019, Bruce costs only 2 mill less than what the Mets will be paying Cano in 2020 and 2021. That to me is a wash over the next 3 years. So the Mets won't be behind in this deal until the final two years of Cano's deal imo, and in the meantime, they are a much better team.

[Sour Masher]

It's interesting to me how reliever prices fluctuate over time. There have been times over the last 20 years where "closers" are highly valued and paid as such. Then other times when baseball realizes that for the most part closers are just high end relief pitchers, and relief pitchers are primarily just pitchers who could not hack it as starters (over generalizing I know).

And now we are in an era where we have an abundance of dominant relievers who don't even close. And last year we had pitchers who both closed games and started games (Romo, Martinez).

The perceived value of a reliever, and more specifically a closer is still up for debate in my opinion.

Yeah, in general, there have been times when relievers, especially closers, have been overpaid and valued, for sure. My sense of their actual value though is tied to how variable it is. I'm in the camp of being against paying big money over multiple years to almost any reliever, because you just don't know what you will get. Like, there were a lot of flags in terms of usage and decline that told me Wade Davis' contract was bad when it was signed. If Brad Hand's arm hangs on long enough and he gets a big deal, it will be the same issue.

However, Diaz is 24, throws 100, has sick stuff, and has the markers of a truly elite reliever for years to come. If a team can be guaranteed to have vintage Kimbrel for 3-4 years, I think they are doing well paying a premium for that. I don't think consistent greatness from a closer is overvalued. It matters a lot to a team. The problem is the list of top relievers varies a lot year to year, so when you overpay for many years, chance are you will get burnt. I think Diaz is worth the gamble.

[TranaGreg]

the point about Bruce's contract is a good one, except for the fact that we all know that by July the Mets will have traded for him again.

[YourPalChrisMal]

I think some of the reaction is because this is the Mets, and we are conditioned to expect their moves to suck. Given the fact that the Mariners are paying half of Cano's contract, and the fact that Diaz is elite and relatively affordable, even in arbitration, I think the Mets did well here. It shouldn't be forgotten that they also dumped Bruce in this deal, who is set to make 10 mill, 13 mil, 13 mil. So, after 2019, Bruce costs only 2 mill less than what the Mets will be paying Cano in 2020 and 2021. That to me is a wash over the next 3 years. So the Mets won't be behind in this deal until the final two years of Cano's deal imo, and in the meantime, they are a much better team.

Agree with this. It sounds like the M's are eating half of what remains of Cano's contract. So, really, for me Cano and Bruce are a wash for the most part, making this deal essentially Diaz for prospects, with Kelenic as the real "get" for the M's. If the M's are truly rebuilding, Diaz is a luxury that isn't really needed (although he's cheap for quite a long time), so I can see a world where Kelenic (and the others) would be more appealing to them than Diaz. I'm OK with it from the Mets perspective as well if their plan is to try to contend quickly. My argument as a negative for the Mets would be that they look to me to be much farther away from contending than a lights-out closer, though. But if they plan to do more then this isn't a bad start since Diaz+Cano for Bruce is the "now" part of the deal which certainly makes them better for 2019.