MLB Trade Deadline deals

[B-Fly]

I've been out of the loop a while, so I'm not sure if this is sarcastic. I'll take it as serious, and answer from there.

I think the team management has failed in a number of ways:

1. Internally developed pitching has failed to deliver quality results on a consistent year to year basis. Roark and Gio are both, at best, third-quartile SPs. RPs through the organization have contributed very little to team success.
2. RP signings and trades, particularly prior to this year, have carried much too high of an injury risk given their inability to deliver RPs from their minor league system. Benoit, Madson, Doolittle, and Miller all came with significant age and/or injury issues.
3. Team management has chosen to not pursue pitching staff/bullpen construction similar to other highly successful or improving teams. I believe recent results - 2017 and 2018 - have proven this to be a bad choice. Not only has the Nats failed to achieve results in line with what appeared to be exceptional talent elsewhere, they have now fallen behind rising teams like Colorado, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Atlanta.

Hmm. I guess we differ in what was predictable and what was bad luck. I thought team management did an excellent job acquiring Madson, Doolittle and Kintzler to shore up the bullpen at the 2017 trade deadline.

[Ken]

Hmm. I guess we differ in what was predictable and what was bad luck. I thought team management did an excellent job acquiring Madson, Doolittle and Kintzler to shore up the bullpen at the 2017 trade deadline.

Agree, and as far as the rotation, they have Scherzer, Stras, and then Gio and Roark have both been in the top 10 in Cy Young voting within the last couple years. There's nothing wrong with that rotation from a talent perspective.

[chancellor]

Agree, and as far as the rotation, they have Scherzer, Stras, and then Gio and Roark have both been in the top 10 in Cy Young voting within the last couple years. There's nothing wrong with that rotation from a talent perspective.

Gio and Roark might be two of the most overrated starting pitchers in the NL. I'll hold to my assertation that they're third-quartile SPs based on:

1. Gio Gonzalez's WHIP the last four years is 1.42, 1.34, 1.18, and 1.55. His walk rates/9 in that same time frame are 3.5, 3.0, 3.5, and 4.5. His K rates are good, but hardly exceptional over that same time frame, ranging from 8.0 to 8.7.
2. Gio Gonzalez's top 10 Cy Young voting year came on the back of a 2.58 BABIP and 81.6% strand rate. When those numbers normalized the year prior and after, he's proven to be mid-4s ERA, high WHIP, high walk pitcher.
3. I'd put Gio in the bottom quartile of NL SPs, but he does get bonus points for durability, which carries value.
4. Tanner Roark is a slight bit better than Gio - in the three non-CY top ten years he's had, his had ERAs in the low to mid 4's with WHIPs in the 1.26 to 1.33 range. He's certainly not the walk machine that Gio has been. I'll also note those years have fairly normal BABIP's and strand rates.
5. Tanner Roark's top ten CY year? Yup, again, the hit and strand rate numbers aligned in his favor at the same time - .269 BABIP and just under a 80% strand rate.
6. But again, Roark gets bonus points for good durability.

[chancellor]

Hmm. I guess we differ in what was predictable and what was bad luck. I thought team management did an excellent job acquiring Madson, Doolittle and Kintzler to shore up the bullpen at the 2017 trade deadline.

That was an acceptable short-term fix to a problem that was driven by their failure to find talent inside their organization that could fill those bullpen roles. The error was thinking a short-term fix was an adequate solution for the following year.

[Ken]

Gio and Roark might be two of the most overrated starting pitchers in the NL. I'll hold to my assertation that they're third-quartile SPs based on:

1. Gio Gonzalez's WHIP the last four years is 1.42, 1.34, 1.18, and 1.55. His walk rates/9 in that same time frame are 3.5, 3.0, 3.5, and 4.5. His K rates are good, but hardly exceptional over that same time frame, ranging from 8.0 to 8.7.
2. Gio Gonzalez's top 10 Cy Young voting year came on the back of a 2.58 BABIP and 81.6% strand rate. When those numbers normalized the year prior and after, he's proven to be mid-4s ERA, high WHIP, high walk pitcher.
3. I'd put Gio in the bottom quartile of NL SPs, but he does get bonus points for durability, which carries value.
4. Tanner Roark is a slight bit better than Gio - in the three non-CY top ten years he's had, his had ERAs in the low to mid 4's with WHIPs in the 1.26 to 1.33 range. He's certainly not the walk machine that Gio has been. I'll also note those years have fairly normal BABIP's and strand rates.
5. Tanner Roark's top ten CY year? Yup, again, the hit and strand rate numbers aligned in his favor at the same time - .269 BABIP and just under a 80% strand rate.
6. But again, Roark gets bonus points for good durability.

All these issues would be a concern if they were SP2. But these are the SP3 and SP4 on a team with the best SP1 and SP2 in baseball. The rotation is fine.

[heyelander]

All these issues would be a concern if they were SP2. But these are the SP3 and SP4 on a team with the best SP1 and SP2 in baseball. The rotation is fine.

o.0

When did they get traded to the Astros?

[Ken]

o.0

When did they get traded to the Astros?

Astros rotation as a whole is certainly the best, but that wasn't the discussion point.

I'd take Scherzer/Strasburg over Verlander/Cole.

[Mithrandir]

Astros rotation as a whole is certainly the best, but that wasn't the discussion point.

I'd take Scherzer/Strasburg over Verlander/Cole.

You can have Strasburg...he's a DL regular and hasnt been outstanding when he is healthy.

[nullnor]

Gio Gonzalez got suspended for PEDs or something shortly after he had that really good year. i think. decent pitcher i guess, maybe that put him over the top. i don't know. heh

[chancellor]

I think the final drama will play out this week if Toronto follows through on activating Donaldson today, putting him on waivers, and trying to cut a deal before September 1.

[Ken]

You can have Strasburg...he's a DL regular and hasnt been outstanding when he is healthy.

Yeah, we know, we know, doom and gloom, everyone sucks. We get it.

[revo]

Lucas Duda to the Braves for cash

[Mithrandir]

Yeah, we know, we know, doom and gloom, everyone sucks. We get it.

Not everyone. But Strasburg has not produced like most expected. You disagree?

[Ken]

Not everyone. But Strasburg has not produced like most expected. You disagree?

Which pairs of top of the rotation starters do you have ahead of Scherzer/Strasburg?

[chancellor]

Which pairs of top of the rotation starters do you have ahead of Scherzer/Strasburg?

That's not his point. His point is Strasburg has under performed in 2018. Certainly not a disaster, but I think he's right in assessing Stras' season to date as underperforming, certainly from a fantasy baseball point of view.

Using general metrics, his ERA is significantly up and his WHIP higher than normal. He's projected to start 22-23 games (assuming his most recent neck impingement doesn't sideline him again), which is at the low end of his three-year performance.

Advanced metrics point to a season that's not as bad as it's turned out, but they are worse - his FIP is 3.65, better than his 4+ ERA, but certainly not a Stras-like dominating figure. His BABIP is pretty normal at .310ish, so his higher WHIP is not a bad luck figure. His HR/9 and HR/FB are both notably up - not awful, or a disaster, but certainly up over his last 2-3 years. I'd postulate that most of his ERA bump is due to the increase in HRs.