RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Pre-MLB Draft" Version)

[Ken]

It's hard for me to get excited about 1B prospects

I'm curious why? I find your lists pretty position agnostic which is great for fantasy purposes since dWAR is irrelevant in fantasy.

[overkill94]

I'm curious why? I find your lists pretty position agnostic which is great for fantasy purposes since dWAR is irrelevant in fantasy.

I think part of the problem is opportunity. 1B is at the end of the defensive spectrum so most teams have at least a couple guys who failed their way to 1B somewhere along the way. Plus, the offensive bar is set so high for the position that you really have to break down the door to even get an opportunity (i.e. Hoskins, Goldschmidt, Ryan Howard, etc.)

[Sour Masher]

I think part of the problem is opportunity. 1B is at the end of the defensive spectrum so most teams have at least a couple guys who failed their way to 1B somewhere along the way. Plus, the offensive bar is set so high for the position that you really have to break down the door to even get an opportunity (i.e. Hoskins, Goldschmidt, Ryan Howard, etc.)

Yeah, many of the best 1bman were elsewhere in the minors. 1b prospects are sort of like relievers that way. Few that were at the position to start actually make it. They must compete with all the great bats teams convert to 1b when they can't hack it elsewhere. Still, coming from relative obscurity to being in the top handful at the position is an accomplishment. He seems like he could climb to jake bauers level at some point.

[rhd]

I'm curious why? I find your lists pretty position agnostic which is great for fantasy purposes since dWAR is irrelevant in fantasy.

The more athletic a player is the more likely he'll carve some role in MLB. Guys that end up at 1B tend to be the more unathletic types and the margin of error for these guys is so much smaller than for more athletic types. Particularly RHed 1Bman. Lowe doesnt have that problem because he's LHed but he still is going to have to hit a ton to be taken seriously as a top prospect. That's why you usually dont see too many 1Bmen on top prospect lists. I'd rather be the late to the party on 1B prospects and wait for them to get hyped first by professioonal orgs like BA and FG.

[Ken]

Yeah, many of the best 1bman were elsewhere in the minors. 1b prospects are sort of like relievers that way. Few that were at the position to start actually make it. They must compete with all the great bats teams convert to 1b when they can't hack it elsewhere. Still, coming from relative obscurity to being in the top handful at the position is an accomplishment. He seems like he could climb to jake bauers level at some point.

You know, I thought the same thing. But when you look at the actual results, it turns out that the top 1b in the mlb were 1b in the minors too. Take a look (list from Fangraphs Off numbers for 1b):

Freddie Freeman - always a 1b
Paul Goldschmidt - always a 1b
Brandon Belt - always a 1b
Joey Votto - always a 1b
Jose Martinez - OF
Eric Hosmer - always a 1b
Jose Abreu - always a 1b
Cody Bellinger - always a 1b
Matt Carpenter - 2b/3b
Carlos Santana - C
C.J. Cron - always a 1b
Justin Bour - always a 1b
Matt Olson - always a 1b (started as 1b, then moved to RF, then back to 1b)
Anthony Rizzo - always a 1b
Marwin Gonzalez - everywhere

Out of the top 15, Martinez, Carpenter, Santana, and Marwin are your exceptions. 11/15 were always 1b.

See I think the primary "utility" of a fantasy based prospect list is where it differs from standard lists. Your casual fantasy player may look primarily at the normal prospect lists - BA, mlb, etc. One of the best things about a fantasy based list is that it highlights those areas where we have a fantasy star "come out of nowhere" because he's not a top prospect on the normal lists because of defensive deficiencies. And 1b is the perfect example of that.

Just my 2c.

[overkill94]

I think you'll find a pattern here in that a lot of these guys have shown the athleticism to play other positions:

Freddie Freeman - always a 1b - showed last year he can play 3B
Paul Goldschmidt - always a 1b - the rare 1B-only late draft pick to bust down the door
Brandon Belt - always a 1b - started playing OF part-time during his first year in the minors, lefty
Joey Votto - always a 1b - played a good amount of OF in AAA, lefty
Jose Martinez - OF
Eric Hosmer - always a 1b - high draft pick, has played some OF, lefty
Jose Abreu - always a 1b - came over as a finished product
Cody Bellinger - always a 1b - has played lots of OF, lefty
Matt Carpenter - 2b/3b
Carlos Santana - C
C.J. Cron - always a 1b - can't really be considered a success at this point
Justin Bour - always a 1b - took a while for him to get a chance, lefty
Matt Olson - always a 1b (started as 1b, then moved to RF, then back to 1b)
Anthony Rizzo - always a 1b - lefty
Marwin Gonzalez - everywhere

so Goldschmidt and Cron are the only applicable righties on this list. As I said earlier, Goldy is a unicorn. Either all the scouts whiffed on him or he made a quick adjustment because he did nothing but rake as soon as he hit the minors. Cron is probably the more apt example here - he put up some solid minors numbers but had to settle for more of a part-time role his first couple years in the majors. Even now, he probably wouldn't be getting as many at-bats if he were on a better team.

Looking at his stats, Lowe is following more of the Goldy trajectory since his plate discipline and hit tool seem to be plus this year. Then again, the hit tool was only average last year so he might just be on a hot streak. Tampa Bay's the right organization for him since he should have plenty of chances, but the odds of him being more than an above average regular are still only maybe 40/60 I would think.

[Ken]

Good information although I'm not 100% sure where the goalposts are here. I was just pointing out that it is useful to look at 1B prospects from a fantasy standpoint even if they are not highly ranked by the traditional lists. If you are more enamored with lefties, I can't blame you and I don't disagree. I was not ever arguing that point. And, of note, Lowe hits from the left side.

[Sour Masher]

Interesting data, Ken. That sways me back to thinking Lowe should be a top 150 prospect, if he keeps this up all year. I mean, Bauers made a lot of lists this year, and Lowe is showing similar hitting skills this year. He could be one of those guys underrated by lists that account for defensive value, because he is a 1bman.

[overkill94]

Good information although I'm not 100% sure where the goalposts are here. I was just pointing out that it is useful to look at 1B prospects from a fantasy standpoint even if they are not highly ranked by the traditional lists. If you are more enamored with lefties, I can't blame you and I don't disagree. I was not ever arguing that point. And, of note, Lowe hits from the left side.

Ah, I was just going by what rhd said about Lowe being a righty. I think the point is that while a lot of these guys ended up at 1B, they've shown the ability to play other positions, usually because someone was blocking them and they needed to show the versatility to get the call. Whether Lowe has that or not i don't know, would have to check the scouting reports.

[Ken]

Ah, I was just going by what rhd said about Lowe being a righty.

He's one of those bats left / throws right guys actually.

I think the point is that while a lot of these guys ended up at 1B, they've shown the ability to play other positions, usually because someone was blocking them and they needed to show the versatility to get the call.

Not to continue too much further down this path but I just have to disagree. Freeman was a great fantasy prospect even as a 1B only - he played 7 games at 3b in the minors, and if he hadn't he'd still be the same prospect.
Votto played 44 games in the minors as an OF and hundreds at 1B.

I could go on, but the point is that these guys weren't called up for their positional versatility, they were called up for their bat. Even if they were 1B only they were great fantasy prospects. And I just think we need to keep that in mind and remember that a 1B prospect need not be high on the typical lists to be noteworthy for our purposes when evaluating their offensive potential.

It might be interesting to see where the typical DH is coming from, I suspect a large portion were 1B in the minors as well. Which means there are a lot of roster positions that get filled with these players who have large fantasy upside, but don't match that with high rankings on mlb prospect lists. That's something we can take advantage of.

[revo]

Eloy Jimenez promoted to AAA.

[Sour Masher]

Man, the way Tucker is crushing it, I don't know how much longer the Stros can keep the kid down. Dude is base-ballin.

[mjl]

He's nowhere near rhd's top 150, but if you're in a league that values picking guys out of low-A ball that might be useful in 2021, Fernando Kelli (CF-CHC) might be good.

As a data point, last year's low-A SB leader had 37 in 63 games. Last year in the Dominican Summer League, Kelli had 58 in 67 games (second had 35), and this year in his first 12 games in low-A ball he's hitting .289/.360/.356 with 11 SB.

Another couple random interesting guys that are probably deservedly way way off the radar:

Roberto Ramos (1B-COL) is a bit old for his level - 23 and just reached AA after spending his first four seasons in rookie ball and various A-levels - and he's a first-base-only prospect, but this year in high-A he hit .304/.411/.640 with 17 HR in 214 AB, then got called up last week and so far in AA he's 6 for 12 with a single, a double, and four HR.

Buddy Reed (OF-SDP) was a second round pick out of college and was pretty mediocre his first two seasons but the Padres kept moving him up each year anyway. This year in high-A, in 275 AB he's hitting .331/.380/.560 with 11 HR and 32 SB. .417 BABIP will come down at some point but he could be something.

[rhd]

He's nowhere near rhd's top 150, but if you're in a league that values picking guys out of low-A ball that might be useful in 2021, Fernando Kelli (CF-CHC) might be good.

As a data point, last year's low-A SB leader had 37 in 63 games. Last year in the Dominican Summer League, Kelli had 58 in 67 games (second had 35), and this year in his first 12 games in low-A ball he's hitting .289/.360/.356 with 11 SB.

Another couple random interesting guys that are probably deservedly way way off the radar:

Roberto Ramos (1B-COL) is a bit old for his level - 23 and just reached AA after spending his first four seasons in rookie ball and various A-levels - and he's a first-base-only prospect, but this year in high-A he hit .304/.411/.640 with 17 HR in 214 AB, then got called up last week and so far in AA he's 6 for 12 with a single, a double, and four HR.

Buddy Reed (OF-SDP) was a second round pick out of college and was pretty mediocre his first two seasons but the Padres kept moving him up each year anyway. This year in high-A, in 275 AB he's hitting .331/.380/.560 with 11 HR and 32 SB. .417 BABIP will come down at some point but he could be something.

Intriguing stats for Kelli. I couldnt find a scouting report on him so I'm not adding him to my list yet until he has a longer track record in the US. But thanx for the heads up.

Ramos was just recently added but way down the list for now.

I've noticed Reed's performance this year. Has nice SB potential if he can be good enough to merit MLB-regular projection. He's in the mid-range on my list.

[Sour Masher]

RHD, I want to pick up Ronaldo Hernandez to my minor league team, but I can't figure out who to drop.

I don't have access to BA's midseason list, but here are some guys I have that were ranked that I suspect have fallen. Mind telling me which have fallen off completely, and which you'd drop for Hernandez? Also, my interest in Hernandez is based on the speculation that he gets moved from catcher. Like you, I don't like catching prospects, but I've read his glove isn't great, but his bat looks legit.

Anthony Alford, Jorge Mateo, Mitchell White are all previously ranked guys who have fallen off this year. Any of them still on BA's top 100? Also, I have Josh Naylor and Franmill Reyes. Either of them make the list? Which, if any, of these 5 would you cut for Ronaldo?