Judge's freeze list almost due, 12-team 5x5 NL-only

[harmon]

Sorry for my confusion, but Kyle Davies? The old braves pitcher who last pitched in Japan? Or are you guys talking about someone else.

Zach Davies.

[Ken]

Zach Davies.

Makes a little more sense, but even Zach Davies is close to replacement level in a 12 team NL Only, having trouble understanding why there would be so much interest in him.

[Judge Jude]

his peripherals stink, but he did win 17 games last season. plus his team offense and more importantly defense is improving. HQ has dropped its projection to $3, which is not terribly close to replacement level.

I may be able to flip Ziegler for Davies and then get a Molina 13-0.
also angling for the 6th minor league pick for Williams, opening a slot for Harper while still only having 4 OF.

[cavebird]

Wow, lots of Nick Williams unlove. Was he just overrated as a top-prospect or was his pretty good debut last year just bad?

[Ken]

Wow, lots of Nick Williams unlove. Was he just overrated as a top-prospect or was his pretty good debut last year just bad?

> 25% K rate suggests that the .288 AVG may not be sustainable, no real game speed to give you steals, HRs are up league wide so the power is average at best.

I don't know that he was every a TOP prospect on the fantasy side (I could be misremembering)

[The Dane]

Wow, lots of Nick Williams unlove. Was he just overrated as a top-prospect or was his pretty good debut last year just bad?

He's just blocked.

[cavebird]

I thought he was big, in like a George Springer who swung at even more. While he K's way too much (because well, he swings at everything), he makes tons of hard contact. An above-average BABIP is reportedly likely, but not as high as last year.

[cavebird]

He's just blocked.

I thought he was going to play in a 4-3 positions time-share type thing, which usually leads to lots of playing time because it is rare that everyone stays healthy, although Kingery may make this trickier.

EDIT: And he would be the strong side of a platoon with Altherr, although it probably would not be a straight platoon as Herrera would also be involved.

[The Dane]

I thought he was going to play in a 4-3 positions time-share type thing, which usually leads to lots of playing time because it is rare that everyone stays healthy, although Kingery may make this trickier.

EDIT: And he would be the strong side of a platoon with Altherr, although it probably would not be a straight platoon as Herrera would also be involved.

Yeah, that may very well be. And while that time-share keeps me moderately interested in the whole bunch, it also keeps me from getting too crazy about any of them. Williams is a fine play for $5, or whatever he has him at. I'm just saying I'm not overly excited.

I still think they all play in PHI, but the situation puts a cap on value. Don't run away, but don't overpay.

[Judge Jude]

UPDATE with 17 hours to go

leaning toward 10 for 152
SP Alex Wood 5-S1
RP Corey Knebel 2-S1
RP Hector Neris 1-S1
C Yadier Molina 13-O
1B Anthony Rizzo 42-O
OF Bryce Harper 41-O
OF Adam Eaton 18-S1
OF Adam Duvall 15-L1
OF Tommy Pham 10-S1
OF Nick Williams 5-S1

other options:
SP Kenta Maeda 19-S1
C Buster Posey 30-S1
2B Howie Kendrick 9-O

I turned Ziegler 10-S1 into Molina 13-O by acquiring and then shipping out Davies 12-S1 today

HQ has my $144 of hitters worth $130, which is ok given that I already would have my two "overpays" in Rizzo and Harper.
148 HR
62 SB
.274 AVG
and 7 more hitters to buy

one lean "in" on Williams is that while it makes 5 OFs, we allow trades during the auction. so any OF-shy owner who missed out on a few guys early might be eager to add one mid-auction.
I got turned down on an offer of Williams for the 6th pick in the mid-April farm draft, now offering him to the guy who has the 7 pick

[Ken]

HQ has my $144 of hitters worth $130, which is ok given that I already would have my two "overpays" in Rizzo and Harper.

What do you project inflation to be in this league? Rizzo and Harper are a little high but not a huge overpay.

[Judge Jude]

with farmhands at 5-S2 until the year after they lose rookie eligibility, it is high, of course.

I expect that about 25 out of maybe 90 freezes will be underpriced farm products at 5-S2, 5-S1, 10-L2, or 15-L2.

the pricing in the auction gets crazier each year, so I dial out of a lot of it beforehand

[Sharky]

I like Maeda. Health challenges but good SP. maybe over Williams?

[Judge Jude]

fair
but no way Maeda clears 19 in the auction
with luck, I get for 12

[Sharky]

fair
but no way Maeda clears 19 in the auction
with luck, I get for 12

Even better! Was tough to evaluate your inflation.

Btw our freeze list is due tomorrow. If you have a minute, please let me know your thoughts. (Recent new post has details)