Keeper Help Please

[Gregg]

Has it been established that this is a two catcher league? No way I keep any catcher over some of the other options IF this is a 1 catcher 13 team league. Two catchers, sure, but if one catcher only, give me Rizzo, Pham, severino, nola, godley. If it is a two catcher league, keep Contreras over Rizzo.

The go with the Stars argument for keeping Goldy or Rizzo over Godley is sound but I just see more profit with Godley, and you may get Goldy back cheaper with all of the humidor buzz. Same humidor might inflate Godley's price. I think the pair will cost you less by keeping Godley and tossing Goldy in the auction. Same for Godley and Rizzo, maybe. That is a closer call, depending on league and auction dynamics.

A $3 Contreras is too valuable to give up. I am all for saving every unit you can. In this case you only save $2 bucks and you would be giving up one of the top 3-5 catchers. I am guessing none of those are $3 bucks or less.

I also think Contreras has the potential to be the top catcher in baseball.

[Sour Masher]

A $3 Contreras is too valuable to give up. I am all for saving every unit you can. In this case you only save $2 bucks and you would be giving up one of the top 3-5 catchers. I am guessing none of those are $3 bucks or less.

I also think Contreras has the potential to be the top catcher in baseball.

I'm unclear in this response. I'm not saying don't keep Contreras over nothing. I'm saying don't keep him over other options like Godley. I think a midtier pitcher has more value than a top 3 catcher in a one catcher 13 team league. I'd be curious about what catchers and mid tier SPs go for in this league. Of course this is all off base if this is a two car her league.

[Gregg]

I'm unclear in this response. I'm not saying don't keep Contreras over nothing. I'm saying don't keep him over other options like Godley. I think a midtier pitcher has more value than a top 3 catcher in a one catcher 13 team league. I'd be curious about what catchers and mid tier SPs go for in this league. Of course this is all off base if this is a two car her league.

Yep, and in this case I am respectfully disagreeing with you. Probably with most in here.

I think as a general community we are jumpy when it comes to catchers. Even more so in 1 catcher leagues. I understand the theory/fact/whateveranyonewantstocallit going cheap on the 1 catcher leagues. I play 2 catcher leagues and I always plan for a $1 end game catcher. Where I seem to differ is that if we are fortunate enough to hook into a good one for reasonable money I would keep them.

In this case Contreras has easily more value to me than mid-tier pitchers. I would also say I am fairly confident in my ability in conjunction with this site to find some good value in my mid-tier mining at auction.

I think it is great and helpful that we can discuss things in here and have different opinions or strategies. It helps all of us to think and make decisions for our individual unique leagues.

[Ken]

I'm saying don't keep him over other options like Godley. I think a midtier pitcher has more value than a top 3 catcher in a one catcher 13 team league.

Even in a 1 catcher league Contreras is the play in my opinion, and it is not particularly close.

With 13 catchers being drafted, the replacement value is something along the lines of Russell Martin, or Austin Hedges, or James McCann. For demonstration purposes lets use Hedges.

Steamer has Hedges hitting .231 with 16 HR, 40 R, 50 RBI, and 3 SB.
Meanwhile Contreras is pegged for .271 with 19 HR, 61 R, 69 RBI, and 5 SB.

40 points in batting average across 500 AB is worth ~$5, 3 HRs is around $1, 21 R is ~$4-5, 19 RBI is ~$4-5, and 2 SB is worth $0.5-$1. In total you are gaining around $16 vs a replacement level catcher, even with just 13 rostered.

Meanwhile on the pitching side, with a 13 team league only 117 pitchers will start. Godley is currently going around 45th among pitchers, but in shallower leagues mid tier starters skew down slightly (closers will still remain about the same pushing the mid/lower SP down).

As far as replacement levels, in a 13 team league Steamer would have a Danny Duffy or J.A. Happ type around replacement level. Lets use Happ vs Godley. And to warn you, Steamer does not like Godley, so let me throw in an even higher tier starter that Steamer likes more, like say Dallas Keuchel:

Steamer projections for Happ: 4.30 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 11 W, 162 K
Steamer projections for Godley: 3.99 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9 W, 136 K
Steamer projections for Keuchel: 3.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 14 W, 169 K

For Godley, the ERA boost is significant vs Happ - $5 of value, WHIP is about the same, the 2 W is worth around $1 in Happ's favor, and the 26Ks is around $1 in Happ's favor as well. So you're looking at $4-$5 vs a replacement pitcher in a 13 team league.
For Keuchel, ERA is worth $8, WHIP is about the same, wins are worth ~$2, and K's are similar. So we're up to ~$10 vs replacement.

Hopefully we don't get caught up on a specific projection system. Steamer has it's flaws, it's just used here as a comparison point in order to highlight the relative values. The same exercise can be taken with other projections as well. But the point of the exercise is that unless you have Godley as an upper tier pitcher (not mid tier) or unless you have Contreras outside the top ~6 catchers, Contreras is the play here.

Hope that helps.

[Sour Masher]

I guess a lot of my thinking is based on league dynamics. I am in a 14 team mixed 1 catcher league, and catcher value, outside Posey, is very much deflated. I expect to be able to get someone like Yadier Molina for $3 or less. Conversely, I like Godley is an upper end mid-tier pitcher. I like him much more than Steamer, so maybe my argument is more based on Godley specifically than a generic mid-tier SP.

[Ken]

I guess a lot of my thinking is based on league dynamics. I am in a 14 team mixed 1 catcher league, and catcher value, outside Posey, is very much deflated. I expect to be able to get someone like Yadier Molina for $3 or less. Conversely, I like Godley is an upper end mid-tier pitcher. I like him much more than Steamer, so maybe my argument is more based on Godley specifically than a generic mid-tier SP.

That's fair, league dynamics are certainly a part of it. And I agree with you that Steamer is too negative on Godley.

Now with your example though, lets dig deeper. Molina for $3 isn't that huge of a discount. He should go around $7 or $8, so you are "profiting" $4 or $5 by default. So, for comparison's sake, take $5 off of the Contreras projection and you are still sitting at $11. To get to $11 according to what we were looking at, you'd have to have a pitcher similar to Keuchel. Is that where you are at on Godley? It's certainly possible that's the case, but that's pretty high vs where the market puts him. I think his upside is certainly there or higher, so I don't blame you if you are buying in.

[Sour Masher]

That's fair, league dynamics are certainly a part of it. And I agree with you that Steamer is too negative on Godley.

Now with your example though, lets dig deeper. Molina for $3 isn't that huge of a discount. He should go around $7 or $8, so you are "profiting" $4 or $5 by default. So, for comparison's sake, take $5 off of the Contreras projection and you are still sitting at $11. To get to $11 according to what we were looking at, you'd have to have a pitcher similar to Keuchel. Is that where you are at on Godley? It's certainly possible that's the case, but that's pretty high vs where the market puts him. I think his upside is certainly there or higher, so I don't blame you if you are buying in.

Yeah, I prefer Keuchel, but have them in the same tier. I also may be a tad low on Contreras. I agree he is easily a top 5 catcher, but if this were Sanchez (I forgot about him; he is my number 1!) or Posey for $3 instead of Contreras, I'd never have brought up the notion that Godley should be kept over either of them, even in a 1 catcher league. I see Contreras as in the next tier below those two, along with Gattis/Realmuto/Perez. So, maybe this is partly related to me not seeing Contreras as others in this thread do. Gregg mentioned maybe Contreras potentially being the top catcher in baseball, and I have him as 3rd at the position at best, and closer to 5th than 1st/2nd (Sanchez and Posey).

Just for my own edification here, those advocating for Contreras over Godley in a hypothetical 1 catcher league (I still don't know if the OP's league is 1 or 2 catchers, and, again, I'm basing my argument on it being a 1 catcher league), would you feel the same way if he had a $3 Gattis or Realmuto instead? Because I'm assuming production closer to them than production closer to Sanchez and Posey, so maybe I'm off on my projections on Contreras.

[Ken]

I see Contreras as in the next tier below those two, along with Gattis/Realmuto/Perez best catcher. So, maybe this is partly related to me not seeing Contreras as others in this thread do.

Contreras was basically on the same fantasy tier as Posey last year (within ~$5), and I suspect with a 30 year old catcher the notion is that Posey may be on his way back down soon (look at Mauer's post 30 offensive decline), and Contreras still on his way up. I would personally put Posey and Contreras on the same tier.

[urch420]

This is a 1 catcher league

[Sour Masher]

This is a 1 catcher league

In that case, I stand by my minority opinion of considering your other options over contreras. In any case, you have a good problem to have. Too many good keepers. Maybe the best solution is to try to pull off a two for one that gets you an even better keeper.

[Ken]

This is a 1 catcher league

Seems like you have your 1 catcher on the roster already then!

[urch420]

Goldschmidt $41
W. Contreras $3
Didi $2
Rizzo $34
Pham $1
Conforto $1
Sano $14
Severino $2
Nola $8
Pomeranz $1
Godley $3
Villar $1

Should J. Upton at $16 be included in this discussion or no?

[Hornsby]

Should J. Upton at $16 be included in this discussion or no?

Can you get Rizzo back for roughly the same price? If so, sure, Upton and an extra 18 bucks is pretty good.

[urch420]

By the way, we start 4 OF, and have a DH, MI and CI spot. Might have to pay a couple of more bucks for Rizzo..I'm struggling most between keeping either Nola at $8 or Godley at $3

[virgonomic]

W. Contreras $3
Rizzo $34
Pham $1
Severino $2
Nola $8

With people talking 100 RBIs for Contreras, he's a no-brainer for me. I like Nola over Godley because of his pedigree, though I'm high on both this year and both are at great prices.