Arrieta to the Phils

[Art Vandelay]

as would I but not at their respective contracts. If I am Philly, I couldve signed Lynn and Cobb for less money and wouldve done so.

tru dat

[Ken]

I am not sure why isolating 2017 for these pitchers is all that important. Fantasy rookie mistakes 1.01 is buying into the one year sample.

I look at 2017 and Lynn and Arrieta have very similar stats. If you asked me who I want for 2018 all things being equal I take Arrieta easily.

Of note, I did not isolate 2017, I refuted a point that was made about looking only at 2017.

A rookie 101 mistake is definitely looking at aging players and assuming they will return to their prime and ignoring the previous year. Can't tell you how many big "name" guys go for far too much because of what they did 3 years ago.

The reality is that both are relevant, good analysis looks at recent data and puts it in context with the bigger picture. And honestly the other reality is that calling anyone on this board a "rookie" is more than a bit silly.

[Hornsby]

A big part of the deal is the fact that Andy McPhail and some of his front office mates were in Baltimore when Arrieta was there. Supposedly, they thought very highly of Arrieta at the time, and really wanted to getg him back, both as a pitcher, and as a mentor...

[Gregg]

Of note, I did not isolate 2017, I refuted a point that was made about looking only at 2017.

A rookie 101 mistake is definitely looking at aging players and assuming they will return to their prime and ignoring the previous year. Can't tell you how many big "name" guys go for far too much because of what they did 3 years ago.

The reality is that both are relevant, good analysis looks at recent data and puts it in context with the bigger picture. And honestly the other reality is that calling anyone on this board a "rookie" is more than a bit silly.

Ken, my intention was not to call anyone a rookie or offend anyone at all.

I am no rookie, yet sometimes in the heat of things, auctions, discussions etc I make mistakes they may even look like rookie mistakes. It appeared to me (and maybe I am wrong) that the general tone of the thread had too much emphasis on 2017. So I was just pointing that out.

In the end, as a Cubs fan I am gland we paid for Darvish over Lynn. I can only guess that Phillies fans are pleased that they signed Arrieta over Lynn. As far as fantasy baseball goes I would would pay about 5-9 dollars more for Arrieta than Lynn in my 12 team NL only. Now I don't have to think about it because I do not have that option.

[Erik]

Eh, the Phils have a ton of TV money and are nowhere near the luxury tax, and won't be next year either. I am not losing any sleep over this.

[Gregg]

Eh, the Phils have a ton of TV money and are nowhere near the luxury tax, and won't be next year either. I am not losing any sleep over this.

Are you glad that they signed Arrieta from a baseball perspective?

[Piney Boy]

Are you glad that they signed Arrieta from a baseball perspective?

I know I am. They basically had Aaron Nola and 4 bandaids. I like Nick Pivetta, but he is not ready to be a top of the rotation starter so they needed another arm. I would have been happy with Lynn too. They will not make the playoffs this year, but it is a step in the right direction. The team still has other needs, but they did not have another Cole Hamels in the farm. Some nice arms, but most are 3 years away. They needed to do something and not make the fans stay away like the past couple of years.

[Erik]

I'm more or less where Piney is on this. It's worth the shot to see if he can approach his former peak, and there's not too much downside if he doesn't. Also keep in mind that there are three other mediocre-to-bad teams in the division, so if this puts us definitely above the other three, it could pay dividends sooner than expected.