Arrieta to the Phils

[Sour Masher]

He is actually getting $30 million in 2018, 25 in 2019, and he can opt it or take 20 in 2020. It the phillies can void the opt out by extending him two years at 20-25 mil a year, depending on incentives, so if Arrieta pitches well the next three years, this turns into a 5 year, 125-135 million dollar deal. Good get for Arrieta in this market. Unlike others, he seemed to do well by waiting.

[cavebird]

Because they DON'T have to get passed along to you, the clubs can easily afford to absorb what may be perceived as the excess salary. They choose to pass it along, to maintain their profit margins...

So this. They set ticket prices to maximize revenue. If making them lower would get them more, they would do it. If it would not, but paying for players hurt the bottom line, they would keep tickets the same price and just take the profit. Player salaries have nothing to do with ticket prices. And fwiw, that's not political at all, just economics.

[Judge Jude]

So this. They set ticket prices to maximize revenue. If making them lower would get them more, they would do it. If it would not, but paying for players hurt the bottom line, they would keep tickets the same price and just take the profit. Player salaries have nothing to do with ticket prices. And fwiw, that's not political at all, just economics.

I retired from RJ politics years ago (thankfully), but my only tweak would be that salaries and ticket prices have FAR less correlation than fans think. It's not zero but it's highly overrated.

[Gregg]

At least it wasn't a Miggy contract where he is signed through something like 2023 or so getting 30 mil per season. Maybe this works out for the Phillies but sure looks to me that Arrieta is trending the wrong way. Amazing they he gets $25 mil per season and Moustakas ended up with 6.5 mil.

A far cry from the 6-7 year $200 million he was originally asking for.

[B-Fly]

So this. They set ticket prices to maximize revenue. If making them lower would get them more, they would do it. If it would not, but paying for players hurt the bottom line, they would keep tickets the same price and just take the profit. Player salaries have nothing to do with ticket prices. And fwiw, that's not political at all, just economics.

Yes, owners are presumably going to set ticket prices based on the supply and demand in their market, regardless of the player salaries on the expenditure side of their balance sheet.

[Art Vandelay]

Great move for the Phils. They get an ace, but avoid going long-term with him.

Beginning in 2015, ending in 2017, Arrieta pitched: 229, 197, 168 innings pitched in essentially the same amount of start per season. That's a lot of inning difference. He also lost 3 mph off his fast ball.

[Hammer]

I could care less what a player gets. I just find it crazy that a team would pay Arrieta $30 million for 2018 when he is not the missing piece to the playoffs. Jake is also on the decline and it didnt seem like the Phils were in a bidding war to get him. Lance Lynn gets 1 yr $12 million, others are getting far less than the expect and the Phils break the bank for Jake. It doesnt make me angry. It just seems like a bad sign.

[cavebird]

I could care less what a player gets. I just find it crazy that a team would pay Arrieta $30 million for 2018 when he is not the missing piece to the playoffs. Jake is also on the decline and it didnt seem like the Phils were in a bidding war to get him. Lance Lynn gets 1 yr $12 million, others are getting far less than the expect and the Phils break the bank for Jake. It doesnt make me angry. It just seems like a bad sign.

Arrieta, even the 2017 version, is far better than Lance Lynn. And when the total price went under $100 million, there were other teams in the running (the Padres for one). I can see the Phillies thinking they will contend in 2019, if not this year; remember they have a ton of cash and spend a lot next offseason. The move makes a ton of sense. It annoys me because I would prefer them not to be good as a fan of a division rival.

[Ken]

Arrieta, even the 2017 version, is far better than Lance Lynn.

Is he? For a devil's advocate perspective, Lynn's bWAR in 2017 was 3.7. Arrieta's was 1.9. And Lynn is a year younger.

I think you can sell the "Arrieta is far better" card but it's an upside play based on Arrieta returning to what he was in 2014-2015, not based on 2017 numbers.

For me, the Arrieta signing was one of those instances of paying for who a player used to be rather than what he is now.

[Hammer]

For me, the Arrieta signing was one of those instances of paying for who a player used to be rather than what he is now.

Couldnt agree more.

[Sour Masher]

Has anyone done a breakdown of how Arrieta was able to put together one of the greatest seasons ever as a pitcher in 2015, and why and how he has declined greatly from that extremely lofty height? Do we know for certain who is is now? Hoping for anything close to 2015 seems silly, but do we know he does not have the skills to duplicate his 2016 season for the next three years? What has changed about him from then to now? If he puts together three years in line with his 2016 numbers, I think the Phillies are content with that. I agree with others that they look like a team that could make some noise as early as 2019 (heck, they could contend for a wild card spot this year), so while they are paying him the most this year, I think the signing is more for 2019 and 2020. That is sort of the opposite of how these contracts typically work, when the player becomes more and more overpaid over time. In this deal, Arrieta becomes a better and better value each year. And if he pitches really well for the three years, he becomes a good value for them to extend, as a team option for 2 more years and 20-25 mill per season.

What I like about this salary structure is they pay the most in year one, but give themselves more wiggle room to spend in years 2 and 3 when they, presumably, will spend that money elsewhere to create a brief window as a contender.

[Gregg]

His 2017 numbers were pretty good. 3.53 era with 1.22 whip. 163k's in 168 innings. Add 14 wins and I still want him on my team. If he would have agreed to this deal earlier he would still be a Cub.

I expect his numbers to remain about the same as last year. I am hoping the Cubs homers at our auction "feel" like some of you that are posting. I may just get him cheap...ish.

[Ken]

His 2017 numbers were pretty good. 3.53 era with 1.22 whip. 163k's in 168 innings. Add 14 wins and I still want him on my team. If he would have agreed to this deal earlier he would still be a Cub.

Me too - the problem is he goes as an SP2, and those are SP3/4 numbers

I expect his numbers to remain about the same as last year. I am hoping the Cubs homers at our auction "feel" like some of you that are posting. I may just get him cheap...ish.

Sadly he's on average the 24th SP off the board. Back to the Lynn comparison, you can get Lynn at around the ~60th SP. I don't see much discount right now.

[pitbull]

Couldnt agree more.

Neither can I. We can still expect decent numbers from Arrieta but his contract is clearly paying for better numbers like ace numbers. The question that really should be asked is how well Arriete will age as a pitcher?

[chancellor]

Is he? For a devil's advocate perspective, Lynn's bWAR in 2017 was 3.7. Arrieta's was 1.9. And Lynn is a year younger.

OK, you've managed to convince me that bWAR is a wholly bogus stat.

I think you can sell the "Arrieta is far better" card but it's an upside play based on Arrieta returning to what he was in 2014-2015, not based on 2017 numbers.

If he returns to '14-15 numbers, Lance Lynn isn't even in the same universe as Arrieta. If he returns to '16 numbers, he's much better than Lynn. Heck, even the 2017 version of Arrieta is notably better than the 2017 version of Lynn - Arrieta's HR/9 is lower, his BB/9 is markedly lower, his K/9 is a tick higher, and his FIP is almost 0.70 lower.

For me, the Arrieta signing was one of those instances of paying for who a player used to be rather than what he is now.

In $/year, you could well be right. But it's short term harm.