Thoughts on Extensions...

[Sharky]

Correa either $15 or $20. Three years is a solid window (ie $15) and it’s a lot more cash at auction. Depends on how many keepers your league allows, including minor leaguers. If there’s nobody to spend the cash on, take Correa the extra year. I probably wouldn’t extend Sano at all personally. Wouldn’t fault you for a one year extension. But he is coming off a serious surgery and his skill set (low BA, high power) is less rare. Good luck!

[frae]

I just want to vent on how good Steve's team is and how it is robbing me of getting Mike Trout a championship in this league. I have finished 3rd and 2nd the last two years and again see a likely chase for 2nd or 3rd this year.

[Ken]

My thoughts on extensions:

1) An extension requires that you sacrifice current year auction $s to get future gains
2) In many leagues an extension increases risk as there are penalties to dropping extended players
3) Extensions reduce the profitability of a particular player (somewhat of a duplicate of #1)

Due to those three general topics, I would extend for short time periods and on superstar level player.

Otherwise:

1) You are increasing your risk
2) You are reducing your chances of winning THIS year

For that reason I always bet on myself (and encourage others to be on themselves) to be able to find another *good* fantasy player rather than extend the one you have now in his option year. Now, if it is a great fantasy player (top 3-4 rounds in a draft format), then I'll consider a short extension to improve next year or trade value of the player.

I'd extend Correa 1 year, and that's all!

[Art Vandelay]

I always bet on myself to be able to find another *good* fantasy player rather than extend the one you have now in his option year. Now, if CORREA is a great fantasy player (top 3-4 rounds in a draft format), then I'll consider a short extension to improve next year or trade value of the player.

I'd extend Correa 1 year, and that's all!

We are similar in that I bet on myself and I hate multi year extensions. That said, the starting point is just $5 on a $35 or $40 WITHOUT inflation stud. I owned correa with this circumstance going into 2016 and went to $15. I received comments from about a third of the league saying why not more?! For reference, I once owned and traded a $5 mike.trout. His current owner extended him to $25. I might have gone to $20 on fishboy but more likely would have stopped at $15 just like correa. I think there is too much value to limit an extension to just $10.

[gcstomp]

Everything Ken said is true, if talking about a non trading league. It is playing a hermit crab on a busy highway if its an active trading league. An extension on Sano, as opposed to playing out 1 and done, just created a tradable commodity. An extension on Correa, look at it from pov of who you would trade player to, and note that the puny extra $5 means you will be landing 50 extra in trade value to run over your opposition when it comes to profiting from rebuilders. If you want to crush, dont see your players as static, like they will be potted plants on your team. Look at leagues best dead contracts that you will pile on your plate in return for the commodity you created with that extra 5 buck in extension.

[Ken]

We are similar in that I bet on myself and I hate multi year extensions. That said, the starting point is just $5 on a $35 or $40 WITHOUT inflation stud. I owned correa with this circumstance going into 2016 and went to $15. I received comments from about a third of the league saying why not more?! For reference, I once owned and traded a $5 mike.trout. His current owner extended him to $25. I might have gone to $20 on fishboy but more likely would have stopped at $15 just like correa. I think there is too much value to limit an extension to just $10.

For me, Correa is a $25-$30 player to start with so there's our main difference in the analysis. To be a $35 player for me he'd have to produce in 5 categories and he didn't run last year.

On the topic of extensions alone, lets assume for a moment that he's a $30 player.

My options are:

1) No extension - $5, $30-$5 = $25 net value x 1 year = $25
2) 1 year extension - $10, $30-$10 = $20 net value x 2 years = $40
3) 2 year extension - $15, $30-$15 = $15 net value x 3 years = $45
4) 3 year extension - $20, $30 - $20 = $10 net value x 4 years = $40

If you only look at it with those parameters then the 2 year extension is the break even point.

Now, lets add some additional discussion topics:

1) Peak value is an important factor. The goal is to *win* the league, and in order to do that you have to have the most value. To get the most value, pre-auction you are looking to have the best players relative to contract each year. So, in talent terms, one year of having a great player is better than having 2 years of an okay player.
2) Net present value of ... talent. Now is better. In other words winning a title this year is more valuable than hopefully winning one next year. We can add pieces before next year for next year, the sooner the "winning" occurs, the more valuable it is.
3) Risk increases over time. The longer the contract is in place the more likely that one of those years includes a big injury dramatically reducing fantasy stats
4) Similarly, predictability reduces over time. It is a lot easier for me to predict and get somewhat close to what Correa will do this year, than what he will do next year.
5) High end players are more likely to go down in value than up. Simply because the ceiling is closer than the floor. Correa "could" become the top overall fantasy player, which for me is a +$15 change. But he could also tear his ACL and miss a season, which is a -$30 change.

Accounting for those factors pushes me back from the 2 year extension to the 1 year extension.

Fun topic BTW!

[Ken]

Everything Ken said is true, if talking about a non trading league. It is playing a hermit crab on a busy highway if its an active trading league. An extension on Sano, as opposed to playing out 1 and done, just created a tradable commodity. An extension on Correa, look at it from pov of who you would trade player to, and note that the puny extra $5 means you will be landing 50 extra in trade value to run over your opposition when it comes to profiting from rebuilders. If you want to crush, dont see your players as static, like they will be potted plants on your team. Look at leagues best dead contracts that you will pile on your plate in return for the commodity you created with that extra 5 buck in extension.

That's fair, although if there is a salary cap, then a cheap $5 Sano will be very valuable at the trade deadline to those competing for a title. It's likely that they would give up a lot for that. And if a rebuilding team is smart, then he sees an ultra-cheap $10 Correa, even with just 1 year left as a great commodity too since he can flip it next year. It goes both ways.