The demise of the $10 pitcher.

[TranaGreg]

Used to be, not but a scant few years ago, that the middle tier of starters was made up primarily of young high-upside guys and older guys with injury histories. Smart players dipped into both pools with caution and didn't go too far in either direction. The information landscape has changed. I think it changed when very good fantasy writers, several from this very site, started writing for the glossy magazines. This meant that any mope with a few bucks and fifteen minutes could have a functional list of guys with upside produced by really smart people. This wasn't so easily available before that. So, the young high-upside guys are targets by EVERYONE now, which means that the other half of that pool dips. Some of us react by going Stars and Scrubs, which is logical and smart, because it avoids that middle altogether. Some of us are still playing the middle, but grabbing fewer high-upside guys and more injury-history guys, spending about the same as we would have but just having a different makeup.

The last few years, I've tried to grab (or protect) an ace early and then throw all those high-upside starters out real early when everyone still has cash, but before the other aces are all gone. This has allowed me --not every time, but on more than one occasion-- to then get another ace at a small discount. And then go cheap after that. Ultimately, I could get a $85 staff with two aces in it. It doesn't always work, because the draft is an organic thing and it's gonna go where it's gonna go, but one owner can steer it a little with the right information.

good post.

[Teenwolf]

I've noticed that my list of SP sleepers that I expect to go in the $3-$7 range are now often topping $10 and I'm getting priced out. Not always a bad thing though.

Look at 2017 SP inflation in my AL Only (MSGL). I'll include the Tout/LABR avg $$ along with my league's actual bid.

C. Hamels (T/L - $18.5, bid $29)
I. Kennedy (T/L - $10.5, bid $24)
E. Santana (T/L - $4.5, bid $13)
H. Iwakuma (T/L - $4, bid $15)
F. Hernandez (T/L - $14.5, bid $25)
M. Pineda (T/L - $12, bid $19)
S. Wright (T/L - $3, bid $8)

My league inflation isn't crazy, maybe 20% annually, but this group went for an average of $67 in Tout and LABR, and my league paid $133, which is $1 short of 100% inflation. Looking at the list, nearly all of those SP's were also horrible in 2017, so the premium paid for reliability doesn't seem to be paying off. Maybe 2017 was an exceptionally bad year for "reliable" SP's.

Certainly seems like reliable SP's AND upside SP's are trending upward these days.

[Gregg]

I've noticed that my list of SP sleepers that I expect to go in the $3-$7 range are now often topping $10 and I'm getting priced out. Not always a bad thing though.

Look at 2017 SP inflation in my AL Only (MSGL). I'll include the Tout/LABR avg $$ along with my league's actual bid.

C. Hamels (T/L - $18.5, bid $29)
I. Kennedy (T/L - $10.5, bid $24)
E. Santana (T/L - $4.5, bid $13)
H. Iwakuma (T/L - $4, bid $15)
F. Hernandez (T/L - $14.5, bid $25)
M. Pineda (T/L - $12, bid $19)
S. Wright (T/L - $3, bid $8)

My league inflation isn't crazy, maybe 20% annually, but this group went for an average of $67 in Tout and LABR, and my league paid $133, which is $1 short of 100% inflation. Looking at the list, nearly all of those SP's were also horrible in 2017, so the premium paid for reliability doesn't seem to be paying off. Maybe 2017 was an exceptionally bad year for "reliable" SP's.

Certainly seems like reliable SP's AND upside SP's are trending upward these days.

Interesting. Thank you for taking the time to put this together.

We have a winter roster cut down day where we have to cut our rosters to 19 players. The dropped players can be picked up. Their salaries are $10 or their original which ever is higher. The order of picking is last place to first place.

Someone dropped a $9 Ian Kennedy. I dropped my $21 Felix Hernandez to pick him up. Pitching is thin this year. So far no one is interested in the now $10 (with new contract) Kennedy.

It will be interesting to see what Hernandez will go for at our auction. A lot will depend on Spring Training, but it would not surprise me to see him overbid on name alone.

[joncarlos]

I think this is partly related to the way innings are managed.

200+ innings and really good = stud, $30+
200+ innings and pretty good = OMG I must have this guy because I need innings and don't want to pay $30+
180-200 innings and mediocre = these guys are becoming unicorns (I guess this is Mike Leake?)

140-160 innings and pretty good or really good = pay more than $10 because "what if" they actually throw 180?
120-140 innings and pretty good or really good = see above

120-160 innings and mediocre = I'm not paying $10 for that guy

[DMT]

Interesting. Thank you for taking the time to put this together.

We have a winter roster cut down day where we have to cut our rosters to 19 players. The dropped players can be picked up. Their salaries are $10 or their original which ever is higher. The order of picking is last place to first place.

Someone dropped a $9 Ian Kennedy. I dropped my $21 Felix Hernandez to pick him up. Pitching is thin this year. So far no one is interested in the now $10 (with new contract) Kennedy.

It will be interesting to see what Hernandez will go for at our auction. A lot will depend on Spring Training, but it would not surprise me to see him overbid on name alone.

Like Miggy, a former stud I'll use early as bait for the weaker owners in my league.

[chancellor]

Used to be, not but a scant few years ago, that the middle tier of starters was made up primarily of young high-upside guys and older guys with injury histories. Smart players dipped into both pools with caution and didn't go too far in either direction. The information landscape has changed. I think it changed when very good fantasy writers, several from this very site, started writing for the glossy magazines. This meant that any mope with a few bucks and fifteen minutes could have a functional list of guys with upside produced by really smart people. This wasn't so easily available before that. So, the young high-upside guys are targets by EVERYONE now, which means that the other half of that pool dips. Some of us react by going Stars and Scrubs, which is logical and smart, because it avoids that middle altogether. Some of us are still playing the middle, but grabbing fewer high-upside guys and more injury-history guys, spending about the same as we would have but just having a different makeup.

The last few years, I've tried to grab (or protect) an ace early and then throw all those high-upside starters out real early when everyone still has cash, but before the other aces are all gone. This has allowed me --not every time, but on more than one occasion-- to then get another ace at a small discount. And then go cheap after that. Ultimately, I could get a $85 staff with two aces in it. It doesn't always work, because the draft is an organic thing and it's gonna go where it's gonna go, but one owner can steer it a little with the right information.

Very interesting post. In my AL-only league last year, stud pitching went out early and often in the auction (every one gone in the first two rounds that I'd call a "stud"), and seemingly overpriced. I waited, and got what I thought was a very good staff. With the exception of Charlie Morton and JA Happ for a combined $5, I was gravely wrong. Aaron Sanchez, Jake Odorizzi, and Kevin Gausman pretty much wrecked my staff.